Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 3rd January 2013>

[noggin]

I think that was last nights guidance mate. Ian is due to receive the latest Met Office guidance, based on the 0z data, at around 11am this morning.

Hopefully he will be able to share snippets with us.

Ah, I understand now. Thank you.

[AWD]

They keep on coming, although admittedly we are well into FI now;

[TwisterGirl81]

I doubt us Devonians will see anything wintry this weekend Judging by the charts as well such as 'snow risk' It seems to be the noth south and east that get the snow....as always!! I really hope we get some snow this winter, we do not need anymore of the wet stuff! Sun, cold and snow showers will do just fine!

[gottolovethisweather]

I doubt us Devonians will see anything wintry this weekend Judging by the charts as well such as 'snow risk' It seems to be the noth south and east that get the snow....as always!! I really hope we get some snow this winter, we do not need anymore of the wet stuff! Sun, cold and snow showers will do just fine!

These snow risk charts are simply generated from one run at a time and are just posted for the purposes of fun. Even from t+24 onwards, sometimes earlier, they will simply be wrong.

These charts, along with others are simply projected outlooks into the future. Nothing synoptically will come off as suggested. The trend is the key and the trend is nice and peachy for something much colder and maybe snowier.

Edited January 8, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[cerneman]

Deep depression this morning......Home Insurance renewal quote breezed through letterbox,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Patter of raindrops certainly make quotes grow,,,,,,,,Whirlwind activity to find lower premium,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Expecting blizzard of quotes,,,,,,,,,,,,Hope sunny outlook,,,,,,,,,,,,,Lowering pressure on financies, Insurance companies can be right Joe B's

[Dorsetbred]

Doing nicely in double digits today, currently 10.3C, and things ae drying out nicely (even the washing on the line, sorry Mrs!)

[gottolovethisweather]

Food for thought, for the majority of this region, more especially those further West and inland from the coast.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75477-winter-model-discussion-cold-hunting-080113-00z-onwards/page__st__280#entry2469572

This is pretty much where I suspected things would turn in the long-term. In the meanwhile, be grateful for the cold and hope that it quickly becomes entrenched deep cold and then the goods may well be delivered. Once the hoped for snow depths dig in further East, then the West and Southwest will indeed become battleground locations.

All looking good to my eyes but again, that might depend where your own location sits in the scheme of things.

[Polar Bear]

Food for thought, for the majority of this region, more especially those further West and inland from the coast.

http://forum.netweat...80#entry2469572

This is pretty much where I suspected things would turn in the long-term. In the meanwhile, be grateful for the cold and hope that it quickly becomes entrenched deep cold and then the goods may well be delivered. Once the hoped for snow depths dig in further East, then the West and Southwest will indeed become battleground locations.

All looking good to my eyes but again, that might depend where your own location sits in the scheme of things.

I tooo will be grateful for the cold if it brings some sunshine. I am not going to get hopes up and I still am going to bring our the summer wardrobe. One question for you GTLTW what is a "mild outlier" ...it is a reference to the ECM output and whilst on the face of it seems easily understandable I suspect the meaning is more in depth...

[AWD]

what is a "mild outlier"

It's when the Operational run is not supported by its ensemble suite.

In this case, the ECM ensemble suite is colder than the Operational.

Edited January 8, 2013 by AWD

[gottolovethisweather]

I tooo will be grateful for the cold if it brings some sunshine. I am not going to get hopes up and I still am going to bring our the summer wardrobe. One question for you GTLTW what is a "mild outlier" ...it is a reference to the ECM output and whilst on the face of it seems easily understandable I suspect the meaning is more in depth...

Hi PB,

This is taken from the netweather ensembles guides.

Sometimes the control run will go off in a tangent and either be much higher or lower than

the other runs and the mean, this is known as an outlier and can often mean that the

control run is unlikely to be showing the actual outcome.

Basically, the closer the mean (red line on the GFS, white? on the ECM) is to the control run, then there is greater reliance on the model output being correct. More often than not, anything after T+96 is fantasy island. However, when it comes to predicting snowfall it is often <t+24. As ever, it is the trend, especially from the ensembles (model suite interpreations adjusted to several members), which are the key drivers of any forecast.

A control run (blue line on GEFS) is the latest run without any adjustment made to its original T+0 data.

Edited January 8, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[cerneman]

The Feb 78 battleground snow was remarkable event, What I remember was that front forecast to push through giving Midlands heavy snow,but stalled over South West,

[MP-R]

As long as the cold becomes entrenched, the West Country and higher areas of the southwest are always the best place to be. Unfortunately, though if it is a fleeting visit from cold, the southwest often turns milder first.

[gottolovethisweather]

As long as the cold becomes entrenched, the West Country and higher areas of the southwest are always the best place to be. Unfortunately, though if it is a fleeting visit from cold, the southwest often turns milder first.

Spot on.

Whilst quite a few folk will have to endure some rain at first, as long as it eventually turns colder and some settled snow occurs further East and North then the Southwest will be in a good position too.

All this talk of wintriness, i.e battleground snow, is a long way off in terms of current output but I did fancy the chances of such outbreaks way back in November.

Edited January 8, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Andy Bown]

The first meaningful rain of the year is beginning to move into the region from the West, with a particularly heavy

burst affecting the Weston Super Mare area.

I've just checked my gauge for the first time since the midnight as the year changed and it's got just over 1mm in it

which has accumulated from the slight drizzle that was around on several mornings.

[mcweather]

The Feb 78 battleground snow was remarkable event, What I remember was that front forecast to push through giving Midlands heavy snow,but stalled over South West,

didn't it just.

[AWD]

Out of curiosity, anyone remember what December 1990 was like in the West Country?

Too young to remember & on phone so can't really go digging through charts.

[Coast]

Those of a nervous disposition, please look away now.....

Gotta love the South coast!

[cerneman]

Is the south coast going to have fall of little blue x's ?

[Coast]

Is the south coast going to have fall of little blue x's ?

Yes, it's blue cross day!!!!!! :lol:

[Iceberg]

24hrs and we can start to see the snow potential at T72 for saturday and start to look at some prime areas. I'll leave the rest of the model run alone for now.

[jethro]

We managed a different hue of sky around here today, I'd call it Wood Pigeon but Dulux call it Steel Symphony, sounds so much more appealing than Grey. I think the Sun thought about getting up this morning but thought 'sod it' and stayed put, it got as light as it does just before the Sun comes up, neither light nor dark, kind of 3am-ish summer light. All in all, perfect weather for my faded, dull, blue/grey Landrover to make stealth attacks.

[BristolBaggie]

OMG Go into Mod thread........HUGE UPGRADES......SNOW this weekend and behind looks superb for usvWesterners as well. Fingers crossed

[Iceberg]

I think for us in the sw we've been let down so many times that we need to see it falling to get truly excited

However the gfs run upto 144 is as good as I've seen this winter with upto 20cm by t144 for some in the sw

I don't think we should start to get too excited until ECM agrees and we got the same agreement in tomorrow's 12z suite and it comes into the t72 range

Very hopeful though

[offerman]

Iceberg, very well said. I just said the same over on the cold weather thread. I said wait until Thursday to see what will happen. To early to get excited, but nice charts though :-)

Bristol Baggie, Could agree more with your statement"80's THE LAST DECADE OF SNOW"

[gottolovethisweather]

Ok you lot, I have done a post in the other regional for you to peruse.

http://forum.netweat...80#entry2470125

It has a strong bias towards the Southeast as that is where most of the wintry action is likely to happen, at least initially. However, I strongly advise that you keep tuned to this regional as things are somewhat up in the air and will be subject to change.

Edited January 8, 2013 by gottolovethisweather