Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?

[Cheshire Freeze]

0z vs 12z at +72

Well it's formed that Greenland shortwave, let's see what it does with it. Need it to go SE ideally rather than E or NE.....comes down to this SW so all should be resolved within 24 hrs.

Edited January 9, 2013 by CreweCold

[SnowObsessor90]

I know that it's just the weather but gosh I can't remember the last time I was this tense. Fingers crossed that this run delivers.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Anonymous21

[Harsh Climate]

ECM 72h

96H

[UV-RAY]

it was shredded in 2010 cos it hadnt formed properly in the first place !

lets get this right cos it pi++ing me off

the nwp models the trop and all the strat at the same time in the same 3D model of the atmosphere. the ens dont quite go to the top of the strat.

the issue ian is referring to is whether the trop modelling is reflecting the effects of the ssw effectively or whether there is more to come yet.

And that is what I was referring too, maybe your in need of a a glass or two of claret in order to chill.

[Weathizard]

Well it's formed that Greenland shortwave, let's see what it does with it. Need it to go SE ideally rather than E or NE.....comes down to this SW so all should be resolved within 24 hrs.

Pretty sure thats about where you'd expect it to be at T84 because they are both t72 charts so we are 12 hours ahead of this mornings now. Pivotal point at T96 will it dive SE?

Edited January 9, 2013 by Weathizard

[lord stratus]

the ECM is the the postman tonight and im 100% sure it will deliver!!!!! at 6.30pm!

Or it will be like the courier service my company uses and everything gets delayed. Lol

[Continental Climate]

Looks like the ukmo at 96 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013010912/ECH1-96.GIF?09-0!!! we all know where that went northerly from ECM at 144 anyone

[Snowman.]

Now drop that Shortwave SE be a good little shortwave and you will be loved by most people here!

[lord stratus]

If the ECM backs the other models shortly I think the GFS will crawl back into its hole with its tail between its legs. A lot of (ECM) water to pass under the bridge firstly though!

Or it will stick to its guns because it may be right!

[Wilxy]

ECM better than gfs so far with that low starting to sink rather than going east.

[snowice]

looks same as gfs at+96hrs

[Mucka]

looks same as gfs at+96hrs

You're kidding right?

[ChartViewer]

T120...

[Weathizard]

GAME ON

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

ECM seems to have pressure building behind the SW near Iceland which to me is the key as opposed to it flattening out the pressure in the Atlantic and going the way of earlier GFS'

Saying that, there is further pressure on the block at 120h. Time to squint and close one eye.....

Edited January 9, 2013 by Cumulonimbus Tower

[Met4Cast]

T120

Shortwave pushed out the way, WAA into Greenland. Sorted.

[Ali1977]

Looking good still, slightly warmer heights over UK though

[on the coast]

Looks like we might see the extended UKMO run here if it went further. The one we dont see

Edited January 9, 2013 by on the coast

[Harsh Climate]

120

Not sure if I like this or not, will the WAA to the west go north or east towards us..

Edited January 9, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013010912/ECH1-120.GIF?09-0

Before anyone comments this is a MESSY by SNOWY chart.

it is excellent.

S

[Snowy Liverpool]

looks same as gfs at+96hrs

It's to the east of Iceland on the ECM, west of Iceland on the GFS. Imo the most important thing for cold is the speed of that shortwave, and it's looking quicker on ECM.

Edit: Also just noticed that the GFS shortwave has a supporting one to it's northeast which is probably why it ended up moving Northeast.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Snowy Liverpool

[Anti-Mild]

ECM very similar to UKMO out at +120, will we see a shift in stance from the Met Office as a result, or will there still be too much uncertainty to firm up on their forecast?

[MKN]

looks same as gfs at+96hrs

Looks a fair bit different to me. Pressure between the low to the south and the one near Iceland is higher which prevents the one near Iceland sinking south on the gfs. Ecm looks ok for it to move south though

[SMU]

WAIT FOR THE HUGE EASTERLY AT 144.

ITS COMING

[kate1]

Sorry to be a pain but it would really be helpful for learners such as me if all posters included some comment when posting charts, just to give us some idea of why they are posting it and guide us in the right direction - a couple of words would be sufficient...

Edited January 9, 2013 by kate1