Winter Model Discussion 18Z 5/2/13 onwards.

[shaky]

ECM and GFS are good for a rain to snow event as I stated and also that' shortwave around Greenland being a what not reflected in the GFS and ECM output until 192h hours. I rushed into it but still all fl. can't say they we're great runs. The cold uppers are gone by Wednesday.

In all honesty ecmwf is good for an all snow event for the midlands eastwards starting from this saturday!

[Ian Brown]

Sleep wel.

Becouse ECMWF is good.

Everything for certain ok within 144 hours.

Also the 240 , becouse he try after a breakdown [ if it hapens] for a renewed block with greenland.

You can see it on the 850 hp T , it is already droppig after 1 day up.

So ther is noway for a zonal jetstream.

Only wenn he is temporaly letting the Azoren high getting closer , or a low gets away.

But afterwards he is closing it again.

If it happens, becouse it is so far away 240 hours.

It could be that we we stay in the cold also.

I don't think so Ryan there is very good agreement among the models for a SW-NE tilted jet at T144 with High pressure close to the UK, once you have that jet alignment, a return of the Atlantic is inevitable initially for the NW and then gradually for all.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

I don't think so Ryan there is very good agreement among the models for a SW-NE tilted jet at T144 with High pressure close to the UK, once you have that jet alignment, a return of the Atlantic is inevitable initially for the NW and then gradually for all.

So wat if alle models agree , it will happen for certain ?Are they weathergod or computers with lof of times errors ?

And if it happens , wat i dont believe at all the Atlantik it will be short lifted.

[Weather-history]

Yes they do and therefore even more of a forecasting nightmare with potentially a lot of PPN around.

It's the sort of set-up that could give a classic snow event as its draws in cold air whilst slow moving.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

End btw way what all models agree , they dont agree witin in them selves,

GFS ensemble is better dan oper.

Oper is outlier.

Ec 32 dont agree with ec 00z oper.

Nogaps ensemble dont agree with his own oper 000z.

CFS dont agree, wats your point sir with agree ?

Let them agree within their own ranks before we paly the wise guy.

[manutdmatt1986]

I'm a bit confused. To me the model runs this morning looking abysmal for snow on Sunday and Monday, especially in the South East, yet I see people saying the opposite. The low looks to be too far north to me resulting in the uppers being too high. Am I reading the charts wrong?

[TonyH]

The MOD has a new superstar! Ryan.

Very enthusiastic input on the output.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Look at this , look at this a big party a , big SNOW EVENT for my friends in the UK.

[Tom Jarvis]

Look at this , look at this a big party a , big SNOW EVENT for my friends in the UK.

not good for my area as we will get the warm sector and just end up with slush

[JamesC]

not good for my area as we will get the warm sector and just end up with slush

Indeed, the chart posted by Ryan is marginal at best for many in the SE. It could be a rain to snow event but it would predominantly be sleet and would not settle.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Yes that is true , but it will become later snow also there.

Believe me , or not.

[Hammer]

T96 ECM and GFS have low deeper than UKMO.

Normal corrections are south with low's from this direction, aren't they?

[Tom Jarvis]

T96 ECM and GFS have low deeper than UKMO.

Normal corrections are south with low's from this direction, aren't they?

i hope so if it could just drop south by 200 miles and be shifted 200 miles west I would be happy

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Yes that is true , but it will become later snow also there.

Believe me , or not.

Wales, Midlands, N Eng, S Scot end east part to nordsee , there wil happen for sure sire , the rest wil cath up later.

Do you understand me.

Were are you in in england ?, its difficult for me to estimated . I live other side.

[IDO]

I'm a bit confused. To me the model runs this morning looking abysmal for snow on Sunday and Monday, especially in the South East, yet I see people saying the opposite. The low looks to be too far north to me resulting in the uppers being too high. Am I reading the charts wrong?

No you are right. Today's output suggests the SE is the only place in England (barring Cornwall) to miss out on the snow. Sleet at best, probably cold rain. Higher ground may get a bit. Still could change though.

[weecrunchie]

RDW - cant load up the picture just now systme issues is the fax xhart showing snaw fir edinburgh?

[Jason M]

I'm a bit confused. To me the model runs this morning looking abysmal for snow on Sunday and Monday, especially in the South East, yet I see people saying the opposite. The low looks to be too far north to me resulting in the uppers being too high. Am I reading the charts wrong?

GFS opp is a nightmare run for the SE. ECM would be very good and with meto I'd imagine a middle ground. Can't see the uppers on meto after 72 hours so hard to tell though.

Bitter experience suggests to me that it will be a cold and wet weekend Imby sadly. Essex, Kent and parts of Suffolk may well be in for a good soaking whereas west and north of London could see mostly snow. I just think we may be too near the low pressure cell to benefit from the colder air feeding into the system.

That said, long time to go yet and the charts are mixed in terms of who gets rain / snow etc. I'd recommend expecting rain though and regarding anything else as a bonus in our part of the world.

Jason

[R.P. McMurphy]

Look at this , look at this a big party a , big SNOW EVENT for my friends in the UK.

Yes, a good chart for the majority. Especially good for the West, Northern England, Scotland and the Midlands and NE. Not so good for the SE.

[nick sussex]

The UKMO versus the GFS/ECM in terms of the deepness of that low pressure at the weekend. I think what you prefer will depend on where you live as there will be a warm sector, more so with the ECM/GFS, the UKMO keeps quite a weak system and soon clears it into the continent.

After that less of an issue surrounding shortwaves but alot of energy spills east, some GEFS have some more interesting options , anyway thats well into the future and might change.

[MR EXTREMES]

so at last its a done deal after the weekend into next week turning slightly milder then cooler with zonal flow north westerlies and perhaps northerly arctic air as low pressure sweeps through.

hat of to those who suggested no prolonged cold but still could evolve towards the end of feb maybe a cold start to march.

it was a yet another close call we still have fun and games this weekend so enjoy whilst it lasts.

overall down here on the southcoast it was better than last year so not a complete failure.

now its the turn of other areas well done met office and ian f i questioned last night how they could feel the alantic could get in when the charts didnt show this for us just goes to show they have more tec than avilible to us so they were spot on with this call.

but it will never be blow torch sw flow still cool and at times cold so some western and northern areas could see more snow through this month.

[Liam J]

I'm quite pleased with the outputs this morning, still plenty of action over the next few days to keep tabs on without worrying about post T168+

These would do nicely, bitterly cold with outbreaks of snow and snow showers with drifting.

Edited February 7, 2013 by Liam J

[Blizzardof82]

I cant believe people are talking about where and where not it is going to snow 72 hours from event, hasn't past experiences taught you this won't be settled until t24 to t12?

[Pixel]

I cant believe people are talking about where and where not it is going to snow 72 hours from event, hasn't past experiences taught you this won't be settled until t24 to t12?

more like T6 if you're feeling lucky

[Hammer]

I cant believe people are talking about where and where not it is going to snow 72 hours from event, hasn't past experiences taught you this won't be settled until t24 to t12?

Yes quite agree, 96 hours as an example that low could well be 75 miles further south, not saying it will be, but certainly we have examples of that type of correction. It probably won't be as deep either.

Edited February 7, 2013 by Hammer

[Jason M]

I cant believe people are talking about where and where not it is going to snow 72 hours from event, hasn't past experiences taught you this won't be settled until t24 to t12?

I've not seen anyone claim it is settled tbh. This is the model discussion thread however and the talk is about what is shown in the models is it not?

For my part I can't believe people post in the model thread saying that they can't believe that people are discussing the models :-)

All very strange IMHO.

Jason