South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 08/02/13 00z ------->

[saintkiptanui]

hmmmm well done a good performance.we are in a transitional period :-/ keep us updated about snow :-)

Will do. You took that very well, fair do's.

[AWD]

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

W COUNTRY New models only have snow over Cotswolds across to Marlborough Downs & Salisbury Plain. So, M4 Swindon-Reading maybe snow Sun eve.

Well never know...

Similiar to the NAE by Monday morning then;

[Mark Neal.]

Certainly better chance for me i guess than some who are further SW, i just hope we all get surprises, its going to be a nowcast, radar & lampost watching on Sunday evening :-)

[gottolovethisweather]

Wow AWD, Many Thanks for a truly wonderful summary.

[gottolovethisweather]

Looked out of the window and it has turned darn foggy out there, was this forecast?

[AWD]

Looked out of the window and it has turned darn foggy out there, was this forecast?

"Inversion" fog.

The less cold, moist air is moving over the current colder air at the surface now, causing the foggy conditions.

[gottolovethisweather]

"Inversion" fog.

The less cold, moist air is moving over the current colder air at the surface now, causing the foggy conditions.

I see and thankyou kindly. Here comes the rain and the subsequent Temperature rises.

Currently 2.7c AT, 2.4c DP and a rapidly falling Barometer trend, currently sitting at 1011.2mb

Roll on tomorrow evening in the hope of seeing a few more snowflakes.

Edited February 9, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

Snow risk for Sunday

[gottolovethisweather]

Snow risk for Sunday

Not far off I guess, let's hope it upgrades for this region over time. IMBY I'm on the borderline of the Wessex downs (M4) corridor so we all know what that means, its a 50:50 chance right now. As AWD alluded to, elevation is the key here and will continue to be as we head deeper into February, I suspect.

Never say never though, that is my motto and I will be watching throughout the event.

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

Not far off I guess, let's hope it upgrades for this region over time. IMBY I'm on the borderline of the Wessex downs (M4) corridor so we all know what that means, its a 50:50 chance right now. As AWD alluded to, elevation is the key here and will continue to be as we head deeper into February, I suspect.

Never say never though, that is my motto and I will be watching throughout the event.

Generally the W COUNTRY looks to sit just outside the main risk, which is further to the North and East. NE Wilts, Cotswolds has the best chance - but even this is minimal. We'll see how it unfolds. It doesn't help that the overall dynamics are so 'marginal'. Always a chance of some sleet and snow on Monday as the frontal system retreats and weakens, by then frontolysis would of done its job and PPN would of become some-what fragmented. As we all know, even with the colder undercut of air from the E by Monday afternoon, with weaker PPN in general it will be hard to achieve any real accumulations of note - especially on a saturated ground.

Edited February 9, 2013 by Thermohaline Conveyor

[Vince]

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

W COUNTRY, SUN: As suspected, new f'cast backs away frm notion of heavy snow across S-central England, e.g. Wilts-Berks: this now 30% risk.

One day this guy will come on here and give us a BIG upgrade when it comes to snow for a change

[gottolovethisweather]

One day this guy will come on here and give us a BIG upgrade when it comes to snow for a change

Well he is often on this very regional and keeps us all well informed. As for you Vince, I believe you are firmly in the risk area, are you not?

[Vince]

Well he is often on this very regional and keeps us all well informed. As for you Vince, I believe you are firmly in the risk area, are you not?

to be honest mate i would'nt believe it if i am , after several very big letdowns during this winter ( one friday 3 weeks ago ) i was in the amber zone , yet it rained with no sniff of a snowflake so until i see it falling my hopes will not be raised.

[jethro]

I've done an extensive search for a straw to clutch and I think I've found a beauty.....The massive snow storm over in the states today happened to fall on the 35th anniversary of the last big snow storm to hit Boston. Back in 1978, nine days after the storm hit Boston, we in the South West were hit by blizzards and massive drifts.

I'm clutching on tightly to my straw of improbable coincidences and I'm not letting go. Massive dumping coming up for all us South Westerners, ETA 18th/19th February.

[gottolovethisweather]

I've done an extensive search for a straw to clutch and I think I've found a beauty.....The massive snow storm over in the states today happened to fall on the 35th anniversary of the last big snow storm to hit Boston. Back in 1978, nine days after the storm hit Boston, we in the South West were hit by blizzards and massive drifts.

I'm clutching on tightly to my straw of improbable coincidences and I'm not letting go. Massive dumping coming up for all us South Westerners, ETA 18th/19th February.

Too early by a few days I'm afraid unless we can send Mullender packing on an earlier flight.

[lfcdude]

I've done an extensive search for a straw to clutch and I think I've found a beauty.....The massive snow storm over in the states today happened to fall on the 35th anniversary of the last big snow storm to hit Boston. Back in 1978, nine days after the storm hit Boston, we in the South West were hit by blizzards and massive drifts.

I'm clutching on tightly to my straw of improbable coincidences and I'm not letting go. Massive dumping coming up for all us South Westerners, ETA 18th/19th February.

Battle Cry,, We Declare war... Warm Air... Now lets all set forth on dismantling the m4....

[jethro]

Too early by a few days I'm afraid unless we can send Mullender packing on an earlier flight.

He lives just up the road, I'm sure he said earlier he was off out tonight, I'm off to pack his bags for him before he gets home, will deliver him to Bristol airport Asap.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Latest GFS , and GFS only gives Wales and West Country a chance after Midnight .....

[SNOWYLAD]

Quite surprised no rain warnings have been issued for the South West really. Quite a few fields and roads were starting to fill up yesterday evening, and plenty more on the way today. Maybe Met Office to obsessed with snow to notice!

[snowmadchrisuk]

Quite surprised no rain warnings have been issued for the South West really. Quite a few fields and roads were starting to fill up yesterday evening, and plenty more on the way today. Maybe Met Office to obsessed with snow to notice!

Yes rain is so heavy in Weston-Super-Mare it already look's a bit sleety , it is the type of rain you can see at dawn without needing to look at the lampost .

[Croydondazz]

Very wet here in lyme Regis

[Croydondazz]

Link to webcam

http://www.lymeregis.org/webcams/cobb-webcam

[AWD]

NAE again looks interesting for the Far East and north of our region;

Wiltshire, Hampshire and the Cotswolds might see something yet early Monday morning;

(This is the 0z NAE)

GTLTW should be happy with that!

Edited February 10, 2013 by AWD

[SilverWolf]

Today reminds me of a day in 2007 where we had heavy rain all day from dawn, and an hour of heavy snow at the end about 4 pm that left an inch on very wet ground. Maybe it'll change sooner today...

[Beast of Plympton]

Well the GFS has snow forcast IMBY tomorrow and the Met Office and BBC have nothing.... will be interesting to see the reliable!!