South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 08/02/13 00z ------->

[Mapantz]

Shows how much I watch the BBC forecasts!

Watch the video,

http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/21394868

Its for this weekend, although it may of been posted yesterday, I don't know!

Yeah it was yesterday, it shows the date below the video.

I think it should be written off though, a lot changed since yesterday. The yellow area on that map seems a bit OTT though, even for yesterday. :lol:

[Ali1977]

4.5c in North Swindon, not sure on DP!!

[AWD]

Yeah it was yesterday, it shows the date below the video.

I think it should be written off though, a lot changed since yesterday. The yellow area on that map seems a bit OTT though, even for yesterday. :lol:

Oh yeah!

That's interesting and odd then considering yesterday's forecast was even less favourable and pretty much non exsistent compared to today's!

[AWD]

Here is the latest Met Office weather warning in text;

"Rain is expected to gradually turn to sleet and snow as it spreads eastwards during Sunday. Settling snow will be mostly limited to the south Pennines at first, but is likely to become rather more widespread by evening. Even then, cover is likely to be variable, with some places seeing very little, others 2-4 cm and with the potential for 10 cm or more over parts of the south Pennines and 5 to 10 cm for Kent, and more locally over the Midlands and Essex.

Overnight into Monday morning, there is a risk of an area of snow moving westwards across parts of the south Midlands, east and southeast Wales and southern England, with a few cm in places, particularly over higher ground. This warning is updated to cater for this risk.

The public should be aware of the risk of disruption, particularly to travel.

A front moving into Britain will stall during Sunday. As a low pressure centre forms along the front, cold air will be drawn into the frontal zone causing the rain to turn increasingly to sleet and snow in places through today.

Even at this late stage, there remain uncertainties concerning the timing and extent of this snow, with parts of the warning area likely to be relatively unaffected. Uncertainty increases further regarding the possible spread of snow across parts of southern Britain overnight."

[Ali1977]

4.2c now, dropping fast.

[gottolovethisweather]

Down she goes.

[A.J]

Nice. I'm also just about in the warning zone. JUST.

Shows how hard this is to forecast!

I've been analyzing the 06z NMM, and it's really interesting watching how this system evolves....The LP centre over west wales is expected to gradually fill with another shallow low expected to form along the straggling frontal boundary. This will have the effect of dragging colder air in from the east and north east lowering T850's and dew points turning ppn increasingly to snow as it does ......Looking at the radar for the past hour and using the NMM model overlay, as well as monitoring several weather stations within of 50 mile radius of here, is suggesting that what the NMM has modelled is actually what is happening......Could get really interesting later, if the NMM models it correctly then after say 18z is when the rain/snow transition could start to show it's appearance in Berks/Gloucs/Wilts areas

[Ali1977]

My outdoor sensor does not show DP so not sure what temp rain MAY turn to sleet, or snow.

[A.J]

My outdoor sensor does not show DP so not sure what temp rain MAY turn to sleet, or snow.

here's a link for a weather station showing live data (winds temps DP's etc etc ) close to you....RAF Fairford in this case

http://www.wundergro...1.723&sp=ME1478

edited post as the link redirected to a defunct Lyneham one...soz!

Edited February 10, 2013 by ajpoolshark
link to wrong station

[Bumpkin]

Well its all a bit blerrrgghh out today. Gert big puddles all starting to join together, fields saturated and everything is just a big soggy, muddy mess. If we do get a dry spell and any official or expert mentions the word drought, i am highly likely to commit murder. Temp here is 6.4c dp 4.9c. P.S yes I have changed my username, cirrostratus just seemed a bit pretentious.

Edited February 10, 2013 by Bumpkin

[John88B]

Temperature on the way down in Alveston, South Glos. 6.1c down to 5.9c in the last 10 minutes!

Edited February 10, 2013 by Bristol/John

[galacticwarrior]

Heavy rain here. Here's hoping for snow tonight!

Edited February 10, 2013 by galacticwarrior

[gottolovethisweather]

A front moving into Britain will stall during Sunday. As a low pressure centre forms along the front, cold air will be drawn into the frontal zone causing the rain to turn increasingly to sleet and snow in places through today.

Even at this late stage, there remain uncertainties concerning the timing and extent of this snow, with parts of the warning area likely to be relatively unaffected. Uncertainty increases further regarding the possible spread of snow across parts of southern Britain overnight."

I'm wondering if that is already starting to happen because the Temperature trend is kicking in nicely here. The Barometer is still as good as bombing too.

Still an awful long way to go yet and given the timeframes mentioned previously, it will be a long haul getting there but I must say I am encouraged by what I am seeing.

Edited February 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Dean E]

Latest NAE output for people who have not seen it...

Midnight (0z)

6am

This is a very much 'nowcasting' situation which is one of my favourite types as it can bring surprises and disappointments

SM

[Mapantz]

My outdoor sensor does not show DP so not sure what temp rain MAY turn to sleet, or snow.

Another link for you and anybody else ..

http://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/home

[AWD]

I agree with AJ Poolshark, the NMM seems to be spot on at the moment. This is the 06z NMM projection for 13:00,

This is the current radar for 13:00,

Not bad! So far!

[Gibby]

Hi folks. My temperature has started to drop now after reaching 6.4C briefly. Currently 5.9C with a dew point of 5.4C. Still a million miles from anything wintry but the trend downwards has started here in the NE of the region. Still very wet with a cold SE breeze.

[Frosty_wsm]

Latest NAE output for people who have not seen it...

Midnight (0z)

6am

This is a very much 'nowcasting' situation which is one of my favourite types as it can bring surprises and disappointments

SM

Nah that can't be right, it's showing snow imby and it never snows in Weston in these marginal setups! lol

Still it would be nice to see snow falling again, I may even take a quick spin up the mendips later to see if it's snowing up there.

[Dean E]

As for my local temperatures, had a maximum of 5.9c at around 8am this morning. As others have posted, my temperature is now also on a slow downward trend and is now 4.6c and DP 3.9c. Got to love evaporative cooling!

Another thing to add is the MetO temp for me was forecast to be 6c at 1pm, it was infact 4.8c... hmmmm

SM

[gottolovethisweather]

I agree with AJ Poolshark, the NMM seems to be spot on at the moment. This is the 06z NMM projection for 13:00,

This is the current radar for 13:00,

Not bad! So far!

Ah but Jackone and a few others confirmed for me at least that the current radar precipitation signals are based on projections, i.e. the current radar will NOT show the correct precipitation type.

[Dean E]

Nah that can't be right, it's showing snow imby and it never snows in Weston in these marginal setups! lol

Still it would be nice to see snow falling again, I may even take a quick spin up the mendips later to see if it's snowing up there.

Look out for surprises like I said!

SM

[AWD]

Ah but Jackone and a few others confirmed for me at least that the current radar precipitation signals are based on projections, i.e. the current radar will NOT show the correct precipitation type.

Ahh, we learn something new everyday! Technically not really a "live radar" then.

Still, from reports around the other regionals, it seems to be there or thereabouts roughly.

Edited February 10, 2013 by AWD

[A.J]

Ah but Jackone and a few others confirmed for me at least that the current radar precipitation signals are based on projections, i.e. the current radar will NOT show the correct precipitation type.

...but......in this particular instance have a look in the SE regional and others Tony.....what the NMM is projecting seems to be exactly what is happening

Ahh, we learn something new everyday! Technically not really a "live radar" then.

Still, from reports around the other regionals, it seems to be there or thereabouts roughly.

it is in terms of whether ppn is falling

[Ali1977]

That's 3.6, only had a quick shower and down 0.6c in 10 mins

[AWD]

it is in terms of whether ppn is falling

But not in type of PPN falling?

No worries anyway. From reports in other regionals I still think the NMM is pretty close so far.

And in terms of PPN distribution, my above comparison still stands IMO.