South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 10/03/13 17z---->

[GazzzaV6]

Could we get another "Snow Day" Gazzza? I think we will back at the ranch tomorrow

Only hope that this 'storm' in the channel moves north during the day and then we get sent packing!

[Dorset Splash]

Looks like someone's dusted icing sugar over the car roof and windscreen here. Nothing settling anywhere else though...however too early yet to make judgement about possible falls. Amazing for this time of year though

[Devondelight]

The radar is starting to look interesting off the south Devon coast, will it make it?? Time will tell I guess.

[lfcdude]

Here is hoping.. for the track to spectacular in for a 100 mile northern surprise..... Non event for most of us.. dusting at best

[Evening thunder]

I was almost on the verge of coming home for this event, but thought it wasn't showing quite far enough north to do so, hope I haven't made a big mistake!

In a way I wish it was 50 miles north though, I could have gone home and we have experienced a rare major blizzard event in the SW if it was!

Even so, perhaps a little bracing on the highest tops of Dartmoor tomorrow: http://www.metoffice...Time=1362960000

hmm -7C with 51mph gusting 68mph winds tomorrow morning with -19C feels like, and -20C feels like for tomorrow night!

Edit: forgot to add, I remember the one event where it went right IMBY at least, for the east Devon and Exeter area, was the 20th December 2010 with heavier snow than forecast giving 20cm meaning an overall total of about 25cm for me!

Edited March 10, 2013 by Stormmad26

[GazzzaV6]

Looks like someone's dusted icing sugar over the car roof and windscreen here. Nothing settling anywhere else though...however too early yet to make judgement about possible falls. Amazing for this time of year though

Got that dusting here now! Wasn't there half hour ago. Take a look at Carlos' link few pages back; v interesting.

[Dorset Splash]

Gonna use the four wheel tomorrow if I can't go sledging with the kids. Thing is Ollie needs to catch bus to Oxford for a course. Total contradiction - want it to snow but also want him to get the bus. Could be a late night

[dancing daisy]

Why are you confused when most, if not all of the above is the reality.

The future is yet undecided and a model projection will not NAIL things until the fat lady and her choir has started singing. All of that activity will happen from the early hours onwards.

I am confused because it is either going to snow in the SW or it isn't. One minute I am reading a yes, the next minute a no.

I'm not daft enough to ask for an IMBY answer due to a channel low, but I was under the impression that some people in this area where in for a good chance, now I am led to believe that the low won't even reach us.

[gottolovethisweather]

The radar is starting to look interesting off the south Devon coast, will it make it?? Time will tell I guess.

Any chance you could update your profile to show your location. If only to assist any MetO affiliated lurkers who wish to hit of our SNOW reports.

[kent]

A strengthening NE wind determined to dry out any precipitation coming up from the south lol. So many factors fighting against our desire to will that snow further north. Lets hope for that extra energy to push it on land. Meanwhile it could well be that my location gets more snow from that streamer coming over from the Irish sea than the main event lol. You couldnt make it up.

[Nights King]

Here is hoping.. for the track to spectacular in for a 100 mile northern surprise..... Non event for most of us.. dusting at best

Yes little hope really for majority of region although south coastys could get a few cm. I wonder though if it could just deepen slightly more than expected and push it accross out whole region?

Going to be a bitter cold and dull day at work outside on edge of bristol monday -1.1c now

Edited March 10, 2013 by mullender83

[Costa Del Fal]

All important Channel Islands Forecast Here:

http://cornwallweather.moonfruit.com/#/channel-islands/4573977985

WEATHER WARNING HERE:

http://cornwallweath...ings/4573724904

Edited March 10, 2013 by Blizzards

[DanDorsetUK]

The center of the low seems to be tracking direct east does it not? http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar

[Dorset Splash]

Using that link. I feel track of the low is slightly further north than some models have shown - could be a better outcome. Bet you wished you'd gone back home for Mothering Sunday weekend Gazzza!

[lfcdude]

Yes little hope really for majority of region although south coastys could get a few cm. I wonder though if it could just deepen slightly more than expected and push it accross out whole region?

Going to be a bitter cold and dull day at work outside on edge of bristol monday -1.1c now

We need to set up a invasion force..

[DanDorsetUK]

At 22:45 frame it looks to sink south east a tad? So close yet so far!

[gottolovethisweather]

I am confused because it is either going to snow in the SW or it isn't. One minute I am reading a yes, the next minute a no.

I'm not daft enough to ask for an IMBY answer due to a channel low, but I was under the impression that some people in this area where in for a good chance, now I am led to believe that the low won't even reach us.

You have confused me now. The general consensus in here, as far as I know was always that there was a risk that the main event (surface feature currently over Nothern parts of the Bay of Biscay) could bring a few CMs of lying snow from midnight onwards into tomorrow daytime. The risk still remains whilst the heaviest of the precipitation was always expected to effect parts of Northern France and the Channel Islands.

I hope that helps you Daisy and with the hectic pace we are keeping to in this thread, I am not surprised that some folk are missing the general consensus.

What I saying above is based on the numerical model output analyses, put forward by others. My gut feeling is that we should not be taking much notice of the forecasts right now and should be sticking to actual live data and reports from the good folk of netweather and beyond.

[GazzzaV6]

Using that link. I feel track of the low is slightly further north than some models have shown - could be a better outcome. Bet you wished you'd gone back home for Mothering Sunday weekend Gazzza!

Too right! Can't believe I'm not there for this. Just hope you are right; northerly correction of that low would be great

[Man With Beard]

I wonder if the IOW might be upgraded to an Amber warning soon? Even the NAE goes for 10mm of snow by Shanklin over the next 36 hours. And the whole lot is still perilously close to the south coast, NAE being consistent in keeping the main batch 10-20 miles off shore though. Still, it got the rain in Devon over 40 miles wrong today!

[Rustynailer]

I am an old member and I am really confused now.

To sum up:

• It's going to snow
  
• It's not going to snow
  
• It won't snow 'til midnight
  
• It won't snow til 6pm
  
• It's snowing in Cornwall
  
• It's snowing in Devon
  
• It's snowing in Somerset
  
• It's not snowing.
  
• It was never going to happen anyway, you're all fools
  
• I'm stropping off and not coming back 'til next winter
  
• It's coming up from Cornwall
  
• It's coming over from France.
  
• Told you it would snow.
  

I think that just about covers all bases.

Thank god you didn't bring sleet in to the frame.

The fine snow has stopped in the last 10 mins. No covering as yet

Expecting snowmageddon here tomorrow. Thats over 1cm on the Island on a monday morning.

[gottolovethisweather]

The center of the low seems to be tracking direct east does it not? http://www.meteox.co...&soort=satradar

Not 100% certain of the current positioning of the surface feature but it was indeed always forecast to move directly Eastwards. However, its attendant fronts are expected to brush along the extreme Southern coastal localities during the next 24 hours as well.

[Ashme]

The center of the low seems to be tracking direct east does it not? http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar

how long have you been using Metox? ive used them for 6months or so. and found them pretty accurate but dont know anyone else who uses it. what do you think of them?

[karlos1983]

Link to France Radar, someone asked earlier.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/radar/france.html

[nick sussex]

I know its frustrating to still be unsure of whats likely to happen but this Channel Low is turning into a forecasting nightmare.

The latest NAE has the precip only skimming eastern coastal areas of the region as an arc of precip heads nw out of northern France, Ian F mentioned earlier that the NAE was too far south on its 12hrs run, I'm not sure what the latest thinking is on whether its still innacurate.

The precip hump as I'd like to call it is there in both the NAE and GFS 18hrs run, the latter does bring it onshore from Dorset eastwards.

So still disagreements at this late stage, I think at this rate it just comes down to nowcasting given the timeframes. Its very knife edge stuff with a relatively small shifts north/south making a big difference.

[DanDorsetUK]

how long have you been using Metox? ive used them for 6months or so. and found them pretty accurate but dont know anyone else who uses it. what do you think of them?

Yes they are quite good, i prefer the longer range rader, now if you click on this link you will see all the forecasted hours ahead! http://www.meteox.co...oop.aspx?type=1

Orange being snow, so still good chance with that!

Edited March 10, 2013 by Rapodo