scotland Scotland - Alba Regional Discussion 20/03/13 21z ------>

[lorenzo]

It would make complete logical sense that with a less prevalent Polar Vortex, the thermal gradient would be reduced and the Jet less pronounced. Where we are in a general shift towards that wouldn't like to speculate!

The wildcard leading into this Winter for me was the Arctic SSts, am sure this will be closely watched in Autumn this year - all over the place with anomalies not just one of them - the Kara Sea, Barents Sea and also Chukci and Beaufort Seas all recording high SSts, versus what looked like the increased SSts being restricted to one area in previous years.

A couple of images from Glenshee from their fbook page indicate that getting to a ski resort may indeed present difficulty. I notice our pal Windy had reposted the digger one also.

Just saw a patch of blue sky, encouraging !

[Polar Gael]

i have read and looked through qiute alot of things and there is some thoughts that the sea ice melt is contributing to the colder winters as with more melt in the summer that is allowing the sea temps there to rise and more evaporation from the sea up there as winter kicks in and the waters start to cool which in turn is adding more moisture to the atmosphere which aids in early winter snow cover across the northern hemisphere.

would add aswell i'm sure i read somewhere that it might be helping with SSW's aswell as there is a thinking that early big snow cover can help with the onset of SSW'S

A link to an interesting article here that looks at the link between the sun and winters in Central Europe. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/08/120823143833.htm

And another one here on one of the things the folk at CERN are up to (when they're not looking for the Higgs Boson): http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110824/full/news.2011.504.html

This could be simply be my memory/perception playing tricks on me, but it has seemed to be cloudier for longer both during recent summers and winters, with the net result that though maxima have been suppressed, overnight minima have often held up and the overall average has perhaps not been as low as expected - i.e. the numbers don't always match the perception of poor summers and colder winters.

Or I could just be doing that old(er) person thing where I recall all the summers of my youth as warmer and all the winters as colder and snowier (I wish)!

[Buriedundersnow]

It would make complete logical sense that with a less prevalent Polar Vortex, the thermal gradient would be reduced and the Jet less pronounced. Where we are in a general shift towards that wouldn't like to speculate!

The wildcard leading into this Winter for me was the Arctic SSts, am sure this will be closely watched in Autumn this year - all over the place with anomalies not just one of them - the Kara Sea, Barents Sea and also Chukci and Beaufort Seas all recording high SSts, versus what looked like the increased SSts being restricted to one area in previous years.

A couple of images from Glenshee from their fbook page indicate that getting to a ski resort may indeed present difficulty. I notice our pal Windy had reposted the digger one also.

Just saw a patch of blue sky, encouraging !

cheers LORENZO so i was thinking along the right lines and its good to hear it from someone else.

i'm still really trying to learn with all this stuff i have only really been looking at all this weather stuff the last couple of years and i have nowhere near the brain power that most on here probably have but its really good to know i am not way off and posting a load of rubbish lol

[jon_d1983]

general cooling.

the reason i came up with this is when u look at the last period of cooling when they say the sun was quiet i think the summer england average was only around 6c and the only way we can get those kind of averages during summer is through periods of northern blocking and we need the polar vortex to be disrupted to allow this to happen.

the jet thing is just a thought of mine and dont really have anything to back it up.

BUS start shouting about it look what happened to NewYork when they didnt listen to Dennis Quaid:

PS the above is meant to be a joke and im not taking the P**s out of BUS. I actaul;ly value his impotus

Edited March 25, 2013 by jon_d1983

[JoeShmoe]

/Rant

It's now been 12 straight days here of slate grey skies, baltic winds and either snizzle or driving sleet

Have to say, having been out in it all weekend and today, i'm getting a bit sick of it to be honest, brutally cold grey nothingness. Quite happy now for a maybe the chance of some snow showers tomorrow/Weds and then lets have some spring please, even a good old storm. It's just monotonously boring and a bit depressing

/Rant Over

Edited March 25, 2013 by JoeShmoe

[Buriedundersnow]

BUS start shouting about it look what happened to NewYork when they didnt listen to Dennis Quaid:

PS the above is meant to be a joke and im not taking the P**s out of BUS. I actaul;ly value his impotus

i think everyone will know it was only a joke

[Buriedundersnow]

/Rant

It's now been 12 straight days here of slate grey skies, baltic winds and either snizzle or driving sleet

Have to say, having been out in it all weekend and today, i'm getting a bit sick of it to be honest, brutally cold grey nothingness. Quite happy now for a maybe the chance of some snow showers tomorrow/Weds and then lets have some spring please, even a good old storm. It's just monotonously boring and a bit depressing

/Rant Over

i think u still have a little while to wait for anything spring like atleast the next two weeks maybe 3 or a little longer even

[jon_d1983]

you think the cold will last for another two or three weeks?

[Buriedundersnow]

you think the cold will last for another two or three weeks?

yeah theres a really good chance and i wouldnt be suprised to see a renewal of hieght rises over greenland

[Matty M]

Can we please get rid of this CAP, such a waste of cold uppers and an easterly flow we rarely see!

Even the usually reliable Irish Sea is doing nothing here today although the streets of clouds look to be getting a bit more threatening.

What was it in 2010 that made the difference, was it the Irish sea being 11/12c instead of its present 8c?

[jon_d1983]

yeah theres a really good chance and i wouldnt be suprised to see a renewal of hieght rises over greenland

it is amazing though that with so many factors being right for snow its just not coming to fruition. As a relative newbie to all trhis can you tell me why? is it just the cloud or wind direction etc whay was 2010 so good for the east coast then?

[Matty M]

it is amazing though that with so many factors being right for snow its just not coming to fruition. As a relative newbie to all trhis can you tell me why? is it just the cloud or wind direction etc whay was 2010 so good for the east coast then?

I think it was the time of year, that extra 4/5c of ocean temperature gradient enabled the convection to be intense, plus there is more water vapour in the atmosphere in the flow at that time of year, now the continent is cold and dry, back then it would of contained more vapour.

[JoeShmoe]

To my untrained eyes the 12z just prolongs the grey-ness with more cold dry air out of the continent at 500-800hpa causing inversion and more of the same cloud sheet off the N Sea

Hope im wrong

[Buriedundersnow]

Can we please get rid of this CAP, such a waste of cold uppers and an easterly flow we rarely see!

Even the usually reliable Irish Sea is doing nothing here today although the streets of clouds look to be getting a bit more threatening.

What was it in 2010 that made the difference, was it the Irish sea being 11/12c instead of its present 8c?

yeah its really ashame to have the cap over us cos as u say with these uppers and with a keen easterly we could be seeing some really good snowfall but sometimes these things just happen and we have to live with it

just to add i'm sure LS said yesterday that the cap would lift a little over the coming days so we might see more chance for some snow but again it will be limited and nothing too extensive

Edited March 25, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

it is amazing though that with so many factors being right for snow its just not coming to fruition. As a relative newbie to all trhis can you tell me why? is it just the cloud or wind direction etc whay was 2010 so good for the east coast then?

i think 2010 was so good cos we had periods where the cap on convection was really high which gave us much bigger showers building and we just havent seen anything like that lately

[Blizzardo]

Can we please get rid of this CAP, such a waste of cold uppers and an easterly flow we rarely see!

Even the usually reliable Irish Sea is doing nothing here today although the streets of clouds look to be getting a bit more threatening.

What was it in 2010 that made the difference, was it the Irish sea being 11/12c instead of its present 8c?

I seem to recall that your looking for at least 15c difference between the upper temp and the sea temp, the bigger the difference the better, but you also need some atmospheric instability. There are probably many other factors though.

[JoeShmoe]

i think 2010 was so good cos we had periods where the cap on convection was really high which gave us much bigger showers building and we just havent seen anything like that lately

2010 we had a very cold and deeply unstable polar continental (PC) feed together with a warm North Sea (November), now we have a very stable PC air mass over much colder seas with dry air aloft which cause inversion (cloud sheets) and caps convection. Im sure LS or pilot will probably tell me that's horesh*t mind :-) but it sounds right anyway!

[Matty M]

To be frank, the SC sheet looks as large and horrible as ever.

Just can't see any action for at least 12hrs, more than likely a lot longer.

[lorenzo]

Ensembles from the 12z, from somewhere around the Central Belt ( not too precise here..)

Flatline on the -10 line..

Totally agree with Joe here, ominous SC sheets are definitely my least favourite weather type ! Need some energy in there to get things moving along..

[jon_d1983]

Just washed Car.....I know madness but I couldn't see out Windows. Finished off the job in a light snow shower with it settling on top of car. Very light winds compared to of late

[Buriedundersnow]

things look to be slowly picking up a little on radar

[Snowplough33]

A few flurries passing through. Looking for some the other side of midnight to reach day 9 of consecutive snowfall. Who would have thought.

[Hairy Celt]

Is this CAP of dutch origin? They have a lot to answer for.

Sweepstake for when & where we'll get the next 10C in Scotland?

[Blizzardo]

Snow shower getting all the way across to Campsie. More than a flurry but saying light snow is probably pushing it.

[Sunny Leith]

Good shout HC...I'll go for irrational optimism and say somewhere in 10 days times on Thurs April 4th, maybe some deeply sheltered sunny spot in the west.

Nothing to support that ... other than this can't go on forever and the sun has power (given a chance) ... and by then I'll be desperate for this to end !

Is this CAP of dutch origin? They have a lot to answer for.

Sweepstake for when & where we'll get the next 10C in Scotland?

Edited March 25, 2013 by by-tor