North West Regional Discussion 22/03/13 08z ------>

[Chess01]

My worries are that the 2nd band looks smaller and it wont stall like the first

[MrSunshine]

My worries are that the 2nd band looks smaller and it wont stall like the first

The 1st didn't stall though did it?

[Backtrack]

I actually don't really care after this non-event for IMBY!!!

Move to Runcorn

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

metcheck looks great for us later today 6cm/ph

the warning is still in place for south merseyside so looks good BT

[Ian Brown]

Temp now 2.3c snowing heavly but thawing of lying slush almost complete. Very poor really and I can't see any falls of snow overnight as it looks too me that the main band of precipitation will be too far East.

How will it get too far East ?

[Backtrack]

metcheck looks great for us later today 6cm/ph

the warning is still in place for south merseyside so looks good BT

Warnings don't update till 12-ish, most likely down to yellow.

[Snow free zone]

One conclusion I draw from this is to never pay any further attention to any forecast precipitation from the GFS/ECM, they have both been way way off the mark - more so when the moisture arrives from the non "normal" direction. I am a little surprised at the ECM over egging the precipitation but not the GFS. They seem to do fine with the normal Atlancic frontal moisture.

UKmet, whilst they did show the lowest precipitation totals for here at least, they have also been off the mark.

There is no substitute for local knowledge and experience. Then again I do know better, but when snow is concerned you just want to believe the unbeliveable don't you ........ at least I have no egg on my face with the kids this time

[SnowObsessor90]

the stuff over cornwall is making inroads towards us. this is the band that shud stall

What's the latest on this?, anyone?

[Backtrack]

Let's wait until tomorrow before blaming the Met Office.

[MrSunshine]

metcheck looks great for us later today 6cm/ph

the warning is still in place for south merseyside so looks good BT

Met Office haven't updated their warnings yet and won't do until at least 11:30am, so warning areas may change and most probably will.

How will it get too far East ?

Exactly! Strange claim that with all due respect!

[UV-RAY]

How will it get too far East ?

Too me it looks like missing large parts of the NW, those in the South of the region will do well, but it appears to be pivoting North Eastwards so the main band of precipitation misses those in the North of the region. We shall see of course. Edited March 22, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[SMU]

Looking at the radar a frustrating morning for the NW as the belt of heavy PPN sits in the sea...

Edited March 22, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Chess01]

The 1st didn't stall though did it?

thats what i mean i fear that the 2nd band wont stall just like the 1st one didnt

[Ian Brown]

Too me it looks like missing large parts of the NW, those in the South of the region will do well, but it appears to be pivoting North Eastwards so the main band of precipitation misses those in the North of the region. We shall see of course.

We will see as the radar develops but I don't see how A can get to C without passing through B if you follow...

[Snow free zone]

Bet they're loving the snow on the gas platforms in Morecambe Bay they'll be snowed in by lunchtime if it keeps up.

[UV-RAY]

We will see as the radar develops but I don't see how A can get to C without passing through B if you follow...

The angle of attack Ian looks good for those in the South of the region only, it may pivot back towards Cumbria but those in Lancashire may find they miss out altogether.

[Backtrack]

Looking at the radar a frustrating morning for the NW as the belt of heavy PPN sits in the sea...

Every morning is a frustrating morning in NW England. Everything is either too far west, too far east, too far north or too far south. We never win!

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

warnings updated mo

[Backtrack]

warnings updated mo

I'm still in the amber so it's all good

[Snow free zone]

The angle of attack Ian looks good for those in the South of the region only, it may pivot back towards Cumbria but those in Lancashire may find they miss out altogether.

Yes agree with this. Will pivot and head back west towards the South Lakes area, missing the 30/40 mile bit in the middle.

Edit : Looking at the updated warnings from the ukmet they seem to agree. The orange warning covers south, east and north of the area that will miss the second front imo. Reckon thats the shadow effect ?

Edited March 22, 2013 by Snow free zone

[UV-RAY]

warnings updated mo

Backs up my post perfectly.

[gearbox100]

warnings mean very little, we have been under amber and we have had a lot of falling snow but its now just not sticking. I don't see this evening being much better. I am still impressed with it being spring.

[Backtrack]

warnings mean very little, we have been under amber and we have had a lot of falling snow but its now just not sticking. I don't see this evening being much better. I am still impressed with it being spring.

It is sticking, it's just not heavy enough to sustain the cover, it's melting as the ground is still warm.

[Liam J]

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[I Cumbria Marra I]

Incredible here, theres actually nothing laying in Egremont and the snow is light, 5 miles down the road were i work and possibly about 40 meters higher its a full on blizzard, 3ft drifts blowing across the road, electricity went off which is why im at home now, GET IN, really mental coming back into egremont from work and seeing no snow at all, just looked at radar and we seem to be in a small rain shadow so thats unlucky.