The Midlands Regional Discussion 22/03/13 12z ------->

[PolarWarsaw]

I think the biggest mistake tonight was the expectancy that when the 2 bands merged and pivoted they'd intensify, when the opposite has happened. Had they intensified we'd all be knee deep. Instead localised totals might be large and those on higher than bog standard ground, but generally totals will be good but nowhere near what they could have been.

[The Wolf]

Yes, as the hours go on you will start to see areas drying up and gaps in the mass of PPN showing.

The BBC forecasts dont agree with you. Lets see what happens.

[Gord]

Still going great guns here. Moderate snow in very gusty winds. I wouldn't use the term blizzard conditions for here...I would need someone from north-east USA...(or Buxton!)...to confirm that for me.

Has slowly been adding to the accumulation all evening.

Some heavier bursts just south of Worcester right now. Need more of a pivot if we're going to avoid that dry gap south of Bristol though.

[Mair Snaw]

Heavy/Mod snow continues here, with blizzard conditions. Drift's well over 2m in places, all lanes blocked.

Yep this blizzard still rages on and on seen 2 car crash outside house and a 4x4 towing a car up the hill into a head on crash with a parked car.... why people are even going out in it i have no idea..big drifts here in the village and im guessing all roads must be blocked by now. and the BBC just gave another 12-15 hours of heavy snow for this area.. time to get out the JCB.....

[Nimbus Nix]

Snowing fairly consistently now, albeit rather lightly. A good inch or two on the ground at 0.2°C. A Patch of perhaps a little heavier precip near Gloucester moving North, which hopefully has our name on it

Edited March 22, 2013 by timeteo9

[SalopWatcher]

Not to bad here 5 miles west of Shrewsbury everything covered in 2-3cm already. If it last on and off all night it will another decent fall for Shrewsbury this winter(well its not winter but you know what I mean!)

[cyclonic happiness]

Finally someone speaking some sense in here. Many in here need to seriously lower their expectations Its marginal above and ground temperatures are marginal. Making it VERY Marginal. Id just be grateful for seeing snow fall. Not happy with it, stop looking outside and do something else.

Snowfalls across the Midlands are 90% always marginal lol

[Derbyshire Snow]

Agreed, we've probably fared the best out of all the towns that aren't on high ground.

I feel sorry for the Leicester area. To the east of Leicester has been a breeding ground for a lot of the snow for our part of the North Midlands, and Leicester seemed to have missed the lot. It looks spectacular for the end of March outside and we still have some light snow falling. Temperatures just about at freezing as well now.

[Ian Brown]

Still going great guns here. Moderate snow in very gusty winds. I wouldn't use the term blizzard conditions for here...I would need someone from north-east USA...(or Buxton!)...to confirm that for me.

Has slowly been adding to the accumulation all evening.

Some heavier bursts just south of Worcester right now. Need more of a pivot if we're going to avoid that dry gap south of Bristol though.

I wouldn't be worrying about that Gord, the PPN will end up in a NW-SE line from the Irish Sea down towards London, with plenty of width, but it is bound to weaken further as the night goes on.

[Gord]

...and to think that 3 months ago we were getting excited about a tiny chance of a brief northerly on Boxing Day (which never happened!)

Ahem...18th Jan, 20th Jan, 10th Feb, 22nd Mar...and that's only for here! Many places have a far longer list!

Edited March 22, 2013 by Gord

[jukebox]

Exacly why people are p!!sed off because the met office said it would intensify as the night went on . I can't complain for my area woke up to a few Cms this morning then a slight thaw then some heavy snow and now snizzle for the past 4 hours . It's just a shame that we have a good base and people are saying its weaking . Roll on spring now

I dont think ita fair to disect a forecast and say its wrong or crap yet as the event is forecast throughout the night. Last time I checked it was nearly 11pm and still loads of time left yet.

I love using this forum but why do people get so upset over the weather not going as they want.

At times this forum is one of the most childish on the net and worse than a thread for EMO,s who have worrying thoughts.....chill out people and see what happens.

[Adzyy]

I'm going to bed now, not gonna wait around for what appears to be a non event here. Hopefully I'll be surprised when I wake up. Night guys.

[mozza81]

Car just about got me home! Around the Dudley/ sedgley area at end of march these are epic scenes:)

[#windysnow#]

My expectations were for 1cm of snow by tomorrow morning, but that's looking unlikely at the moment. Should my expectations be lower? I do agree with you, though. It was plain obvious well in advance that for many parts of the relatively low-lying Midlands, this was going to be as marginal as it could get.

I'm in the amber zone therefore the METO thought it would not be marginal however it is. Light snizzle here no heavy snow although the METO forecast it for now, they seem to factor in a large degree of error, or risk management, unless I get an red warning I know I won't be getting heavy snow.

As someone else has said the fronts have not merge, which to be honest as I have watched the radar all day you could see this woud not happen yet why so he METO continue to report it will

[#windysnow#]

I dont think ita fair to disect a forecast and say its wrong or crap yet as the event is forecast throughout the night. Last time I checked it was nearly 11pm and still loads of time left yet.

I love using this forum but why do people get so upset over the weather not going as they want.

At times this forum is one of the most childish on the net and worse than a thread for EMO,s who have worrying thoughts.....chill out people and see what happens.

It no that the weather is not going as they want, it s more that the professionals are risk forecasting

[fourseasons]

Slight covering here now, snow starting to settle though only coming down moderately. It seems that it is getting a little colder though temperature is 0.4 degrees and therefore just above freezing. If it drops below freezing later in the night, then there may be signifcant accumulations here.

[#windysnow#]

...and to think that 3 months ago we were getting excited about a tiny chance of a brief northerly on Boxing Day (which never happened!)

Ahem...18th Jan, 20th Jan, 10th Feb, 22nd Mar...and that's only for here! Many places have a far longer list!

I agree weve had so many of these events recently, heavy snow forecast, light snow reality

[nitro_deluxe]

Yep this blizzard still rages on and on seen 2 car crash outside house and a 4x4 towing a car up the hill into a head on crash with a parked car.... why people are even going out in it i have no idea..big drifts here in the village and im guessing all roads must be blocked by now. and the BBC just gave another 12-15 hours of heavy snow for this area.. time to get out the JCB.....

Not good...used to live on a sharp bend quite a few years back - during many a snow event it was often a case of watching cars doing Torville'n'Dean impressions! some places not unlike yours are really getting clobbered and as you rightly point out more yet to come tonight and into tomorrow.Case of staying in and avoiding all unnecessary journeys from now on.

[Ian Brown]

I'm in the amber zone therefore the METO thought it would not be marginal however it is. Light snizzle here no heavy snow although the METO forecast it for now, they seem to factor in a large degree of error, or risk management, unless I get an red warning I know I won't be getting heavy snow.

As someone else has said the fronts have not merge, which to be honest as I have watched the radar all day you could see this woud not happen yet why so he METO continue to report it will

The fronts did merge - what we had left overnight merged with what came in from the SW this afternoon, we were always going to end up with a large band of weather.

Ultimately, the heaviest stuff was in the Irish Sea, occasionally affecting Merseyside as well as of course greater PPN intensity over the genuine High Ground in the Peaks.

The METO could not have determined where the greatest intensity would be, only made a best estimate of which areas would be exposed to the PPN for longest for the purpose of their warnings. We also have to remember that regardless of the time of year, the fronts are Atlantic based and even in mid-winter there would have been a lifting of uppers after the first front cleared through.

[snow freak]

well it started snowing around 6pm in northampton for about an hour then turned to sleety rain for another hour or so then back to snow and it has been snowing moderately for the past 3 hours. it has settled on cars and bins, etc but the ground is so sodden that unless it absolutely tips it down overnight then it will just remain wet on the ground and roads. such a shame as this could have been a great event. temp is going down and just above freezing now so hopefully all overnight snow will stick now. just a pity we're in march and not january.

[Gord]

I agree weve had so many of these events recently, heavy snow forecast, light snow reality

Maybe where you are but we have been so lucky this winter at this end of the Midlands. 20cm by the end of the 20th Jan...8cm of which wasn't even meant for us!

And again today, we seem to have a lot of luck again. For an urban area...we really have done exceptionally well.

[BhamBoy]

Definitely seems negative tonight, I can understand that though based on some of the forecasts. Here in Harborne, west Birmingham we've had 8 hours snow now and 6cm accumulation. Still snowing. Agree with Gord that we need a further pivot to avoid the dry spot though.

On a positive note, there wasn't much to distract me from an 8-0 England win!

[weirpig]

Maybe where you are but we have been so lucky this winter at this end of the Midlands. 20cm by the end of the 20th Jan...8cm of which wasn't even meant for us!

And again today, we seem to have a lot of luck again. For an urban area...we really have done exceptionally well.

Gornal seems to do very well. lived there all my life then decided to move to telford mmm

[Mair Snaw]

well thats me done for today, will be here again tomorrow to see how everybody has got on. good luck to you all over night i hope you all a blizzard.

[Gord]

Some heavy little areas of precipitation developing to our south. We've already noticed and had reports from the Gloucester/Worcester one...but there's another just popped up near Oxford. And another one between Gloucester and Bristol just before the dry gap.

Edited March 22, 2013 by Gord