wales Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 30th March 2013

[keithlucky]

Min -8.5c definitely a record April low! Quite a few Winters have not been this cold!

Wow amazing Tony looks like tonight could be the last for a while.

[TonyH]

I do seem to be in a frost prone spot, official stations only -7c.

[TonyH]

Checking back the records and nothing below -6c in April before yesterday and today.

[Marcus_surfer]

Max of 9.8C today when will over 15C be recorded I wonder?

[Bobby]

Looks today is the last dry settled day/spell for a while, some drizzle and light rain spreading from the south tomorrow then becoming increasingly unsettled as we go through the week with spells of heavy rain and strong winds, turning milder too.

Light rain/drizzle moving in tomorrow then some heavier stuff Tuesday into Wednesday

Then a deep trough moves across us later Wednesday-Thursday with heavy rain and strong winds for all.

Things should then settle down for a while under a ridge, then the main 3 models agree on another low bringing strong winds and heavy rain on the weekend/early next week, especially the ECM with a unusually deep cyclone for this time of year, more like a November chart, UKMO looks to be going similar while the GFS delays the next system until late Sunday/Monday so a decent weekend here. Perhaps turning increasingly mild/warm even as we drag up a SWly/Sly airmass by the weekend.

Should put them pesky grass fires out, lots of them around here lately.

Edited April 7, 2013 by Bobby

[Richard Lewis]

Still some areas out of the sun with full snow cover between Llandegla and coedpoeth (above wrecsam)

Snow covers on shaded slopes behind Llangollen...still some snow on branches haha ...crazy after all these weeks

Edited April 8, 2013 by Richard Lewis

[TonyH]

That's incredible Richard for snow to last so long and well into April!

[Cwmbran Eira]

_{Hill tops had covering of snow this morning. Looked like around 300m and above affected.}

_{I have enjoyed this dry spell. Bit chilly at times but loving the lack of rain. Sat in the garden on Saturday. Thermometer said 10c but felt like 20c in the sun. Lovely!}

_{Really looking forward to the warm up now.}

Edited April 9, 2013 by Cwmbran Eira

[Bobby]

Looks like the first significant rain for Wales in a while tomorrow. After it clears we enter a cool fairly unsettled period with occasional rain and showers, some of the showers heavy and possibly thundery with the strengthening sun.

Some uncertainty on the next system moving in from the Atlantic on the weekend and how far E it gets. The models agree on a unusually deep low to our West for this time of year pumping up mild/warm air on strong SWly winds. The ECM has it furthest out W of the main models meaning we should escape most of the system's rain meaning mostly dry, windy and warm. The GFS and UKMO have it closer to us meaning a wetter spell of weather with strong winds, even gales possibly.

ECM: GFS:

The GEM has it the closest to of us at all which would bring a very disturbed spell of weather with heavy rain and gales.

Into next week it looks like the jetstream will shift N of where it's been for a while which could mean some decent dry, warm settled weather, however occasional fronts may move in from the Atlantic bringing cloud and rain at times. So a fairly traditional mixed bag style of weather perhaps.

Edited April 9, 2013 by Bobby

[TonyH]

Lovely afternoon mild sun 13c.

[keithlucky]

Looks like the first significant rain for Wales in a while tomorrow. After it clears we enter a cool fairly unsettled period with occasional rain and showers, some of the showers heavy and possibly thundery with the strengthening sun.

Some uncertainty on the next system moving in from the Atlantic on the weekend and how far E it gets. The models agree on a unusually deep low to our West for this time of year pumping up mild/warm air on strong SWly winds. The ECM has it furthest out W of the main models meaning we should escape most of the system's rain meaning mostly dry, windy and warm. The GFS and UKMO have it closer to us meaning a wetter spell of weather with strong winds, even gales possibly.

ECM: GFS:

The GEM has it the closest to of us at all which would bring a very disturbed spell of weather with heavy rain and gales.

Into next week it looks like the jetstream will shift N of where it's been for a while which could mean some decent dry, warm settled weather, however occasional fronts may move in from the Atlantic bringing cloud and rain at times. So a fairly traditional mixed bag style of weather perhaps.

Good to have the rain to stop the numptys lighting grass fires.

[virtualsphere]

I'm probably in the minority and sympathise with those in eastern districts of the UK wanting warmer and sunnier weather but personally I will be sad to see the current easterly spell end. We've done well in my locality for dry and sunny weather which has been most welcome after the deluges of 2012.

I'm hoping we won't see too much of the dreaded NW- SE split and in the longer term the trough stays far enough out to the west so we can join in with the warmth and sunshine. Until then a little rain won't go amiss - providing it doesn't last until December barring a short break in May like last year!

[TonyH]

Countryside is parched, did not think I would be saying that this Spring!

[J10]

No problem with a bit of rain, as long as it doesn't last for 9 months. (Slightly tongue in cheek but you know what I mean).

[Marcus_surfer]

Wow a few drops of rain falling here!

[Bobby]

Wow a few drops of rain falling here!

Good, here too, should stop those grass fires. Looks like it could get quite wet tomorrow say Met Office

Wednesday:

A dry morning with some brightness developing, but always a covering of cloud. During the afternoon rain will spread into the south, heavy and persistent by evening with hill snow. Maximum Temperature 11 °C.

[Bobby]

Plenty of ramping up of warm, sunny dry springlike weather coming. But in N and W it looks generally cloudy and damp for the foreseeable future. Looks like a NW split could develop, good for the SE but not exactly thrilling for us in the N/W despite it being milder, albeit not espeically wet but no BBQ weather.. Any proper high pressure dominated weather is way out into FI at the moment.

[Panayiotis]

There is chance for some thunderstorms on Thursday Night/ Friday so radar will be at the ready tomorrow!

[andymusic]

THUNDER!

[Panayiotis]

No thunder or hail here just rain but showers to the SW heading NW are lively and should continue moving NW during the night so hopefully they can yield some surprises....

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

Edited April 11, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Carl46Wrexham]

Countryside is parched, did not think I would be saying that this Spring!

 

Not up here it isn't....still a lot of fields which are at best soggy underfoot and at worst have significant areas waterlogged.

 

Cold and damp here to boot.

 

Temp : 6.3c so it doesn't feel great. What really struck me was how bare all the trees still are. Easy to believe it was a November day.

Edited April 11, 2013 by Carl46Wrexham

[J10]

Ground round here is pretty dry, and some nearby fires set off in the past week or so. This does tend to be the time of year with the driest weather in recent years.

Today's rain has dampened the ground a bit, but nothing more than that at this stage.

[Bobby]

Some hefty showers here today, a bit torrential for a while, 15mm since yesterday including yesterday's rain. An area of heavy showery rain associated with a low should move in tonight/tomorrow morning with thunder and hail possible (esp. for the south). A decent watering for all the vegetation at last.

NAE .....

Edited April 11, 2013 by Bobby

[Panayiotis]

From Convective thread

 

Discussion:

... SW ENGLAND, W COUNTRY, S WALES ...

For these areas, main lightning chances during this forecast period will be associated with a well-marked shortwave trough which will cross the area during the early hours of Friday morning in a northeastward direction. Convection should be sufficiently deep (for example ELTs occasionally reaching -40C) for some sporadic lightning activity - unlikely to be widespread, however, especially due to the elevated nature of such convection (nocturnal surface inversion etc).
During Friday, while there may initially be some post-trough convection, strengthening ridging during the day should gradually cause convective showers to weaken and decay, leaving a largely dry second half of the afternoon and evening here.

[mikeocarroll]

Pretty dry ground here too, much drier than last summer at any rate. Wouldn't be surprised to see the east of England moving into drought conditions if this keeps up. Wales will still have plenty of water though!

Some hail in heavy showers this morning, but no thunder here.

Still a fair few snow patches on the hills, the deep drifting and frequent freeze-thaw have made the snow rather persistent, similar to the conditions that allow snow patches to remain on some Scottish mountains all summer long. Not that these will last into summer but the odd patch could easily make another couple of weeks even if the weather heats up.

Speaking of which, both ECM and GFS tonight suggest a blob of high pressure over us at some point later next week, could get nice and warm if the sun comes out. 20C perhaps? I'd settle for the first 15c of the year.

Edited April 11, 2013 by mikeocarroll