Arctic ice loss and Weather.....summer forecast for the N.H.?

[Gray-Wolf]

Well I am either a very licky 'guesser' or the impacts from last years record low ice/snow is having the type of impacts that I proposed earlier on? The MetO's meeting seemed keener on pushing other 'natural' forcings for the changes we are seeing but I'm still sticking with it being snow/sea ice reduction that impacted the jets 'positioning' after last years further  drop in levels.

 

If 07' was responsible for setting up the jet positioning that gave us the terrible summers then a similar drop last year had to give another shove tothe system leading to different areas seeing Troughs/Peaks ( and the weather associated with them).

 

As it is I will enjoy my Hammock this next period of Summer instead of hiding beneath a Brolly!!!

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'll continue to disagree with you that the current shift in the jet stream position is due to last years record sea ice minima.

I think that we were bound to get a high pressure dominated summer month or two eventually and that the extra energy accrued during last summer was lost during the winter, not impacting the jet now.

[Gray-Wolf]

And I cannot see it not having some impact? I'm thinking more of it's Autumn impacts ( and energyfrom the Feb Fracture event) helping 'form' the Jet patterns we have been seeing?

 

I do accept that the 'natural' forcings must, at some point, combine to bring us this nice dry period like the current one but it does appear ( to me) far to 'coincidental' that we see yet another 'pattern shift' the year after another large loss of extent/Area?

 

We are still seeing areas blighted by 'stuck/slow moving weather patterns so the Jet is still 'acting' in the new way but the wave form has shuffled along allowing the trough/ridges to occupy different regions than where we had become accustomed to finding them since 07'?

 

At least it has spared Greenland from a repeat of the last few years of High pressure dominated summer melt? Not so for Alaska which now seems to have a ridge over it allowing record high temps there?

[BornFromTheVoid]

And I cannot see it not having some impact? I'm thinking more of it's Autumn impacts ( and energyfrom the Feb Fracture event) helping 'form' the Jet patterns we have been seeing?

 

I do accept that the 'natural' forcings must, at some point, combine to bring us this nice dry period like the current one but it does appear ( to me) far to 'coincidental' that we see yet another 'pattern shift' the year after another large loss of extent/Area?

 

We are still seeing areas blighted by 'stuck/slow moving weather patterns so the Jet is still 'acting' in the new way but the wave form has shuffled along allowing the trough/ridges to occupy different regions than where we had become accustomed to finding them since 07'?

 

At least it has spared Greenland from a repeat of the last few years of High pressure dominated summer melt? Not so for Alaska which now seems to have a ridge over it allowing record high temps there?

 

I don't think that the jet stream works in that kind of way. The pattern during winter was nothing too unusual, while March saw a record -ve AO, only for us to switch into the first long +ve AO summer period in many years. There's an awful lot of variability, but thinking that last summer/Autumn shifted the positions of the peaks and troughs to what we're seeing now, is much too simple a view of things.

 

I did predict that we wouldn't see the same melt on Greenland this year, as the ridging last summer was exceptional. It's only been the last few weeks that we've seen the strong riding in Alaska, not really long enough to compare with Greenland last year.

 

Anyway, with the forecast now being for a -ve AO to once again develop, if that translates to a -ve NAO as the month progresses, we could see a return to the pattern of recent summers by August, and perhaps a late melt spurt on Greenland and across the Arctic.

[Gray-Wolf]

I think both me and the Arctic would rather stay as we are BFTV!!! ( at least until after we've done the Lakes in early Aug!!!!)

[Gray-Wolf]

Anyhoo's BFTV, though it's back to the drawing board/classroom for me the 'Thing' that I am trying to quantify/explain is that you cannot have such a big 'change' without that change impacting the 'closed system' in which that change occurred?

 

I know I'll entice the pedants here but , and I've always maintained this, I tend to look at the 'larger Brush Strokes' and so am quite illiterate on most the detail?

 

That said I believe we saw a 'step change' in the intensity of northern Hemisphere circulation patterns after the 07' losses and so must expect a similar scale of change post a similar adjustment ( similar = 'ballpark'!).

 

And  'Yes', all the while the old natural drivers are trying to do their own thing in and among the 'changes' but it will be ( in my mind?) the 'changes' that shuftie things a bit further away from 'natural variability' and into the 'extreme' category? I am sure that by summers end we will again be facing a list of extreme weather events ( above and beyond what we should expect from 'natural Variability' itself?) from the likes of NOAA or W.M.O.?

 

I still find it a very fortunate 'coincidence' that my ruminations about what 'might' occur over this summer period are materialising ( even if the blighted 'trough' appears to have shifted East and not 'west' into the Atlantic off Ireland and so the H.P. is the Azores and not an extentsion of the Continental High) with , what appears to me, a lot of 'stuck' weather still around but the recipiants of these 'extreme patterns being somewhat altered compared to last year?

 

To me I see that it is the positioning of the Jet that has altered not the 'condition' of the Jet? I do not know if amplitude or wavelength are markedly differnt to previous years or just that some manifestation of the extra forcing allowed a period of 'movement ( of ridges and troughs) before settling back into the type of pattern we have become accustomed to since 07' with large portions of the Jet dropping off the plots due to low velocity and pretty high amplification. I even think the Sub Tropical and polar have been seen to 'Join' more often where we lose sight of the polar Jet?

 

If ice conditions go back to the 'steady as we go' melts ,with somewhere between 07 and 2013 becoming the new norm for a couple of years, then we will have an opportunity to see if the new 'zone', with troughs and Ridges remaining roughly constant ( so no instant return to the type of floody ,blighted summers for the UK?), will maintain which Ithink would lend more weight to my origional cogitations on what I would 'expect' to see ( and hide from view my oversimplistic imaginings?)??

 

EDIT: Yes I was Four! was it two years ago we saw a NE Scottish town post the same temp for both winter and summer Solstices? Didn't Austria 'Bask' over summer and folk on the beach in S France for Christmas 'Aussie style'?

 

With airmasses pushing ever further north and 'cold plunges' appearing ever faster ( and so less modified) in their journeys we can see 4 seasons in a day over many months of the year ( if we look at some of the pathetic summer max's we had been having and some pretty 'comfy' late and early season temps).

Edited July 12, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[4wd]

We used to be able to predict the season Pete? In winter..Cold, in summer... hot.

 

[John McEnroe mode] - You CANNOT be serious - [/mode]