Chase Day 22 Discussion - MODERATE Risk TX/OK/KS

[nsrobins]

It's changeover day between tours so you're not likely to be in the field but after the relative dissapointment of last night where the two initiation zones morphed quite quickly into line segments (always seem to lose tornado potential when this happens), more discrete initiation seems likely this evening off a very sharp DL.

Based on a blend of RAP and HRRR composite and dewpoint I would be looking at the area between Alva OK and Medicine Lodge KS from 20Z for a couple of discrete cells to move into rich 72dp moisture and 250+ helicity (increasing towards 00z) in N C OK and S C KS.

 

Edited May 30, 2013 by nsrobins

[NL]

NWS/SPC have upgraded the risk area to moderate for most of central/eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, for possible long-lived supercells and tornadoes.. looking like a loaded gun scenario in Oklahoma especially south of the red river.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

Tornado probability.

Edited May 30, 2013 by NL

[nsrobins]

It appears now as though there will be two existing areas of ppn ongoing into the afternoon period - one far SE OK into the Arkalatex and another moving away from far NE OK into MO/IL.

Should the airmass recover  - and 3000+ CAPE with 85F surface temps and 72 dps suggests it will - then the area ahead of the DL is primed to fire with the assistance of possibly two OFBs and a straggling warm frontal type boundary already in place.
Shear vectors actually look more impressive than yesterday. Both HRRR and RAP continue to initiate cells NW of OKC moving ESE later so Alva, OK it remains for now.

[Dorsetbred]

Sounds a bit of a challenge too far for the new team today, don't you think?

[Paul Sherman]

Yep

 

Looks too far out of range for us today, still waiting for 1 arrival and its 4 hours to OK City with Moore on the I-35 To negotiate as well.

 

Btw we had an amazing day yesterday with 2 Tornadic Cell, Pictures will have to follow as only had 3 hours sleep, but would not have called yesterday a dissappointment, funnel clouds, mesocyclones and core punching tornadic cells with golfball hail was a pretty high octane chase.

[nsrobins]

You always seem to catch more than the average chaser Paul, though from an overall potential perspective IMO it didn't live up to the projections - and not for the first time this season.
Looking forward to catching images of last night.
Incidentally - there is a risk of cells initiating just west of the I35 around the River area (according to RAP) although it might not be until 22Z for the cap to break.
Might be worth a quick look as you are in range.
 

[nsrobins]

Tornado watch about to be issued for OK to add to the areas further east already noted.
It's hot and humid in C OK now - 83F and 74dp in OKC. Watch the lone cell south of Carnegie. It's in an area already below a stout upper wind field.

[Tom Lynch]

Well watching storms firing away well north of our location DWF airport and just waiting for the last guest to arrive .  Then need to get going as fast as is possible ti catch what ever we can.  P
aul is beating himself up by watching the cells that we cant make on a live stream.

 

Tom

[PolarWarsaw]

Yep watching the News9, decent stream. Do they cover all weather everyday or do they just click in when there's a chance of severe weather?

[Tom Lynch]

all present and correct and heading north  rapidly  very rapidly, oh no we are not traffic jam

[robt]

There seems to be some worry that Norman/Newcastle/Moore is in the way of another cell, although, they're suggesting that to the north of OKC is better for the storms.

Reed Timmer is suggesting to the north of OKC for the worst of the weather.

[robt]

Wall cloud lowering just SW of Perkins, OK. Local doppler is suggesting tornado coming down.

[robt]

Reed Timmer is in Perkins. Tornado imminent... 

[robt]

Small Tornado reported, between Cushing and Perkins.

Cell near Dibble and Norman has gone Tornado warned..

[robt]

[robt]

[Tom Lynch]

currently approaching Gainsville and looking at intercepting the cell near Lawton

[robt]

Top of the Purcell cell has dropped apparently.

[robt]

This appears to be reorganising a bit..

 

[robt]

currently approaching Gainsville and looking at intercepting the cell near Lawton

Thats looking quite an interesting one at the moment.

[robt]

For Tom and co..

 

 

[Nick F]

Storm near Rush Springs NE of Lawton looks like it could produce a tornado soon looking at the signature.

[robt]

Looks like it. Producing massive hail as well, and the chasing cell near Lawton has caught up with it.

[nsrobins]

Agreed - Lawton/Rush Springs cell the dominant product just now - mid level rotation and tennis ball hail

Also watch new cells forming to the SW of this.

[robt]

Purcell cell looks like its dropping a TN, just after they've taken the warning off it.