atlantic Tropical Storm Andrea

[mezzacyclone]

NHC to issue an advisory on Tropical Storm Andrea within the next hour based on a "well defined circulation" as per Recon.

(NHC)

Amazing turnaround from initial 0% forecasts of formation?

[summer blizzard]

Did it get 0%? This is technically not Barbara which was 90L, this is a new circulation which formed from one of the outer bands.

 

 

At least we have a name, looks very wet for Florida.

[mezzacyclone]

Did it get 0%? This is technically not Barbara which was 90L, this is a new circulation which formed from one of the outer bands.

 

 

At least we have a name, looks very wet for Florida.

(I`m positive their was a brief 0% on an update for 91L the other day, but after release it was quickly re-certified with a 10%)

Amazing how it`s coped with all the dry air?

[summer blizzard]

(I`m positive their was a brief 0% on an update for 91L the other day, but after release it was quickly re-certified with a 10%)Amazing how it`s coped with all the dry air?

 

There's been an MJO phase which has helped it i think, i commented weeks back that data was looking good for early June and as expected we saw pressure over the Carribean relax.

[mezzacyclone]

Did it get 0%? This is technically not Barbara which was 90L, this is a new circulation which formed from one of the outer bands.

Your right SB, it was post-Barbara 90L >

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/atl/201306012342/index.php?basin=atl&current_issuance=201306012342

[summer blizzard]

Frack me, reports of 1002mb already.

[Somerset Squall]

So we have the first storm of the Atlantic season. Andrea has sustained winds of 35kts currently, but is not expected to get much stronger due to shear and the wall of dry air to the west which is limiting convection on the west side of Andrea. Looks like a big rainmaker for Florida and the east coast as it becomes extratropical.

[summer blizzard]

000WTNT41 KNHC 052203TCDAT1TROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013600 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THELARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HASFOUND A CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THELARGE MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE FORMEDVERY RECENTLY SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN.THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002MB...PEAK 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT...AND BELIEVABLEBIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT. THESE DATASUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ANDSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE INTENSITY FORECASTSHOWS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH...EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEMBECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.ANDREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...THENACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVELTROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GLOBALMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGHTHEY ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF JUMPS OR REFORMATIONS OF THECENTER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF THEFLORIDA BIG BEND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IS EXPECTED.AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARDALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THERE WILL BE SOMEBAROCLINIC FORCING BY THAT TIME...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHEN ANDREAWILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ANDREA REMAININGA TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT THE TRANSITION TO APOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD OCCUR SOONER.THE CURRENT FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORMWARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ATROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. THEPRIMARY EFFECTS FROM ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALLACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONGPORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES LATETONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.THE PRONUNCIATION OF THIS NAME IS ANN- DREE UH.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 05/2200Z 25.3N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH12H 06/0600Z 26.5N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH24H 06/1800Z 28.3N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH36H 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

 

...............

 

Personally i wonder if it will be stronger, a 7mb drop in the past 6-12 hours if replicated through tomorrow could make it a pretty strong tropical storm as the winds chase the pressure.

[Cookie]

we're off for the 2013 season thanks for the updates guys

[mezzacyclone]

Still deepening with a 998mb extrapolated pressure reading & high chances of 55-60kn FL winds so the VDM will be interesting in wether or not the max wind speed probability forecast will give Andrea a >6% cat1 chance?

But a near certainty of staying TS due to the aforementioned dry air mass to her west?

Off to work

[summer blizzard]

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KNHC/

 

Not sure how you figure these things out but recon had 996mb and 65mph.

[summer blizzard]

Will be interesting to see whether convection tries to wrap around.

 

[Gael_Force]

Wow, look at those rain rates - near one and a half inches an hour.

 

[summer blizzard]

Latest advisory is 997mb and 60mph sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Andrea has strengthened to 50kts overnight. Andrea's convection resembles a hook like appearance with the convection attempting to wrap into the western quadrant of the circulation, with the majority of the convection still residing east of the centre. Andrea shouldn't strengthen much more given the environment, but don't rule it out, especially as Andrea has fought off the dry air well so far. Shear is increasing again though today, and this may drive the dry air into the core of Andrea. The intense band of convection east of the centre is of concern for parts of Florida though, some very high rainfall rates in this band.

[summer blizzard]

Andrea has strengthened to 50kts overnight. Andrea's convection resembles a hook like appearance with the convection attempting to wrap into the western quadrant of the circulation, with the majority of the convection still residing east of the centre. Andrea shouldn't strengthen much more given the environment, but don't rule it out, especially as Andrea has fought off the dry air well so far. Shear is increasing again though today, and this may drive the dry air into the core of Andrea. The intense band of convection east of the centre is of concern for parts of Florida though, some very high rainfall rates in this band.

 

To be honest i'm not convinced this is fully tropical given its appearance and should probably be sub-tropical. With that said Sandy was definitely not fully tropical and kept a name for ages.

[summer blizzard]

Well, well, whatever the storm really is it looks like it may actually make landfall as a possible hurricane.

 

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Recon went in again, down to 990mb and gusting to 80mph.

 

Looks like it's made landfall now.

[Somerset Squall]

Shear and dry air have kept the convection shunted east of the LLCC which is partially exposed. The centre appears to be making landfall or will do in the next hour or so. Sustained winds have increased to 55kts.With a system like this, the centre of the storm making landfall is of little consequence weather wise. The strongest of the winds and heaviest of the rain have been impacting Florida for a while already

Edited June 6, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[summer blizzard]

Now racing up the coast as it becomes extra-tropical.

[Somerset Squall]

Andrea has weakened to 40kts. As SB says, it is well on the way to becoming extratropical with the strongest winds and heaviest rains now confined to a band well east of the broadening centre. Andrea is mocing through South and North Carolina at present and should completely lose tropical characteristics within the next 24hrs as it races northeastwards up the eastern seaboard of the USA.

[Storm Track]

Andrea will be no longer tropical. The storm will be extratropical by that point after traveling over the cool Atlantic waters, but there will still be a threat for outbreaks of rain and strong winds from an extratropical storm Andrea could be likely to impacting across the Ireland and the United Kingdom early next week.

Andrea could be impacting toward the UK with 50mph winds as a extratropical storm but the winds of 15-30mph winds will be common across all of the United Kingdom and Ireland. The storm will be arrive Monday night and into Tuesday with the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall expected across Ireland.

The heaviest rainfall amount of 15-25mm (00.50-1.00 inch) are expected across Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland with lesser amounts farther east. The damaging winds gusts in excess of 50mph will be possible from Ireland and into Scotland, with the greatest threat along and near-southern and western facing coastal areas.

A tropical storm watch or warnings in effect for all of the Ireland and the United Kingdom, with some locally flash flooding threats areas. Maybe some locally flash flooding threats areas are even possible across South West England, Wales or Ireland early Tuesday night and into Wednesday night.

[summer blizzard]

Andrea will be no longer tropical. The storm will be extratropical by that point after traveling over the cool Atlantic waters, but there will still be a threat for outbreaks of rain and strong winds from an extratropical storm Andrea could be likely to impacting across the Ireland and the United Kingdom early next week.Andrea could be impacting toward the UK with 50mph winds as a extratropical storm but the winds of 15-30mph winds will be common across all of the United Kingdom and Ireland. The storm will be arrive Monday night and into Tuesday with the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall expected across Ireland.The heaviest rainfall amount of 15-25mm (00.50-1.00 inch) are expected across Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland with lesser amounts farther east. The damaging winds gusts in excess of 50mph will be possible from Ireland and into Scotland, with the greatest threat along and near-southern and western facing coastal areas.A tropical storm watch or warnings in effect for all of the Ireland and the United Kingdom, with some locally flash flooding threats areas. Maybe some locally flash flooding threats areas are even possible across South West England, Wales or Ireland early Tuesday night and into Wednesday night.

 

Andrea is already completely post-tropical.