Day 34 bonus chase day Nabraska/south Dakota

[ian cameron]

we are close enough with 2 days to spare until tour 5 starts to play this one so heading to north Nebraska at the mo Paul wants redemption for june 22nd last year so yee ha here we go

 

 

 

Ian/Paul

[duckeyh]

Good Luck Guys 

[nsrobins]

Eh, WTF LOL.

I feel like the Lotus F1 pit team who have been given 12 seconds notice to get the tyres ready for a pit stop.Didn't really expect to see you going for this, but there is indeed nice looking numbers in a target area of Chadron NE to Hot Springs SD (have you been up here already this year?)Decent nose of moisture into the WY border area undercutting the approaching trough with impressive CAPE actually and EHI of 6+ and deep SRH of 350 (RAP 22Z). A bit of upslope, heating, etc and the cap should pop right over my target area.A long trek so good luck with it. 

[ian cameron]

its 11am here and its just reached 100 degrees blimey its warm. Neil well on our way hope to be there by 5 this evening so may not get initiation but def get there in time for some fun

[ItIsGee]

Good luckj guys#!

[ItIsGee]

Moderate risk!

[ian cameron]

well mod risk issued mainly for wind but we still have a 5% tornado risk to play with just got to get on them before the cells all line up into an mcs

[ItIsGee]

better than nothing 5% nado risk is cool though, i am sure paul will get you on them!  say hi for me!

[ian cameron]

not moaning crash am more than happy just clicking of the miles getting there will take 5% all day long

[ItIsGee]

not moaning crash am more than happy just clicking of the miles getting there will take 5% all day long

yeah i know! the miles are the killer!

 

have a good one

 

graham

[ian cameron]

about 25 miles to Ogallala Nebraska then north west from there

[ian cameron]

have the streaming on now if people are wanting it

[nsrobins]

Watching Ian. I think you may need to get further North across the border with SD - cap breaking SW SD from 22.30Z looking at latest.Probably a bit too late a show for me as up early but good luck.

[ian cameron]

yeah we are heading that way prob just over an hour to the border heading north on the 385

[Roger J Smith]

This looks like an evening to overnight event with a good chance of spectacular lightning with supercells moving east across the southern third of SD and far northern NE, could produce 4-6 inch rainfalls in some parts of region so would be cautious about locations at night with regard to flash flood potential in particular around Hot Springs SD.

 

Late onset and overnight peak is due to wave formation and timing, currently the best dynamics are back west over central WY and once that wave begins to push e.s.e. across the Black Hills there should be violent uplift potential and a good frontal boundary in place. Not sure if this would generate strong wind gusts until after midnight possibly when wave is east of Valentine NE then a line squall situation could develop, but early stages of this event will probably be mostly heavy rain and intense lightning. I've been in a severe storm in SD during the overnight hours and the thunder echoes around all over the place because of the hilly terrain.

 

My guess is that you'll have visual contact with developing cells when you reach Hot Springs SD if you're going that far, at about 7 pm CDT (for UK readers that would be 0100h BST). The peak intensity for this event could be around midnight to 0300h CDT between Hot Springs and Valentine.