[Blog] Glastonbury Forecast 7 - 12th June

June 12, 2013

This new format is based on the post of Monday in the main Glastonbury thread on the forum, and this reflects the movement into the long term range of the main models.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-3

GFS Operational Charts [based on 12Hz 12th June run]

Signs of High Pressure slowly re-establishing itself from Tuesday next week according to the GFS 12Hz run. The High Pressure lasts to a growing extent for most of the run, however a brief blip on the first Wednesday of the festival.Charts shown in order (240, Sat 22nd June, 312 Tue 25 June, 336 Wed 26 June, 384 Fri 28 June)

So if the GFS op were to be believed not looking that bad, and probably mostly dry as well leading up to the festival, however other charts are not so promising.

GFS Ensembles [based on 12Hz 12th June run]

The trends continue to be pressure ridging from the south, from as early as mid next week to around 1015mb, and steadily rising to 1020mb, however the op run a little bit progressive in increasing pressure too quickly, also a slight tendency for pressure to drop around the start of the festival. Most ensembles agree of heavy rain over next weekend, but after this signs of rainfall total dropping.

NOAA Upper Charts [based on run published 11th June]

Both shown an upper trough over the UK, but with Pressure slowing increasing to the South West.

NOAA Upper Charts [based on run published 12th June]

O/S

ECM [based on 12Hz 12th June run]

This shows a lot of unsettled weather over the UK this weekend, however this also shows the trough moving northwards, with High Pressure for Southern areas by mid next week, before ending with low pressure one again. (in contrast to earlier runs which showed Low Pressure further south for much of the run).

Charts shown in order (120, Mon 17 June, 192 Fri 25 June, 240 Sun 27 June)

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