Day 42 - Discussion Slight Risk CO, KS, NE, TX (mainly)

[nsrobins]

Thought I might start this one as there's a cheeky set-up along the DL extending from the NE corner down the CO line into TX.Really plenty of moisture creating instability in excess of 4000 J/kg mx CAPE along the CO/NE-KS line, with inhibition failing by 21Z.Hodos suggest not a huge amount of turn with height but local enhancements will surely provide ample vorticity to create some big supercells - mainly hailers (and super size hail possible) but a tornado can't be ruled out and for this reason I'm looking at the northern subtle DL bulge whcih should promote developments on a line Limon to Brush with storms moving SE towards Yuma, CO and the I59.

Edited June 19, 2013 by nsrobins

[Paul Sherman]

Yes a volitile situation "if" something can form and thats a very big "if" in the area we are looking into with eyes on Thursday and Fridays potential in S Dakota and Nebraska on Multi days (Thur & Friday) So that means we will not be going that far south today, It looks like some fun and games for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles though later with some Mothership Supercells. Ending the day down there puts the Northern Plains out of reach for tomorrow so got to be sensible about this one.

 

Thanks for starting the thread Neil

[Tom Lynch]

Fingers crossed for yall. Will be watching later.

 

tom

[D-J-V]

On the road to Lamar for lunch...Mr Cameron swears by a truck stop down there so we will park up and see what we can see! Confidence is low of any major development but if the CAP can be eroded and go bang then it could be a fun day. Very much looking forward to the multi-day severe weather in the far north so will be careful that we can still make it up there! Will fire up the stream after lunch....no real need to stream now unless you want to look at some Colorado countryside..if so let me know and I will fire it up!

 

Next update after lunch...apparently the buffalo burgers are legendary!

[nsrobins]

looks like I got his one wrong - but so did the earlier models TBH. Warm layer aloft has killed the instability north of S KS area, with just the NM/TX area left.

Something may creep through by 00Z but my target area looks like a bust as it stands.

[Tom Lynch]

They may found something

 

[Tom Lynch]

may be not

[Paul Sherman]

Excellent Lightning Display tonight just south of the Black Hills in NW Nebraska.

 

Will be up and out in 5 hours in readiness for Thursday's risk.

 

Paul S

[D-J-V]

Apologies for the lack of comms yesterday I had a day off so Ian C could stretch his legs in front....a couple of storms fired down in Lamar but struggled to become severe we waited until 6pm before heading north to Chadron via some excellent country roads. A quick pizza stop in Sidney and as we headed north storms rolled out of Wyoming and flashed for us as we headed north. On reaching Chadron we shot lightning from the outskirts of town for a while.....storm everyday of the tour so far