west pacific Typhoon Rumbia

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 06W has formed off the east coast of the southern Philippines. Intensity is 25kts. Shear is low and sea temperatures warm, so the main impediment to intensification over the coming days is land interaction. Subtropical ridging to the northeast is expected to push 06W northwestwards through the Philippine islands. 06W will then round the western periphery of the ridge and head on a more northerly track through the northern South China Sea towards the South China coast. Landfall is currently expected near Hong Kong, though at this range there are bound to be some changes so it's important not to focus on the current track as gospel. Just how much 06W strengthens depends on the course it takes through the islands; JTWC doesn't forecast much strengthening until the depression reaches the South China Sea, and then doesn't forecast much due to higher wind shear south of China. However, in my experience, sometimes if the LLCC threads between the islands through the hot waters, systems can still intensify. It'll be interesting to see how 06W fairs, but one thing is certain, the Philippines are in for a drenching.

Edited June 28, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Coast]

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 06W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Rumbia, with sustained winds now at 35kts. The storm has a small but very deep area of convection over the LLCC, and some banding features. Rumbia has been moving north-northwestwards instead of northwestwards, so the track forecast has shifted northwards. Rumbia is now expected to cross Luzon instead of the southern Philippines. Rumbia's north-northwestward heading has given it more time over water aswell, so Rumbia could strengthen a little more before landfall as shear remains low and outflow good, particularly in an equatorward direction. Rumbia will weaken as it crosses Luzon but has the opportunity to restrengthen as it emerges into the South China Sea, especially as shear is now expected to be lower here. Rumbia is forecast to be a high end tropical storm before a second landfall, still progged to be near Hong Kong.

Edited June 28, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Rumbia has crossed the Philippines and has emerged into the South China Sea. Rumbia has started to restrengthen and sustained winds have reached 40kts. The storm has a well defined LLCC but convection is displaced slightly by moderate shear. Despite the shear, Rumbia is still expected to instensify to strong tropical storm intensity as it continues northwestwards towards Southern China. Landfall location has shifted westwards nearer to Hainan in the latest JTWC forecast, but this could still change.

[Somerset Squall]

Rumbia has strengthed a little more, and now has sustained winds of 45kts. Convection remains persistant but is still displaced from the LLCC. Rumbia is about 24hrs away from landfall- but moderate shear should prevent significant intensification before this occurs.

[Somerset Squall]

Rumbia has intensified overnight, to 60kts. Looking at latest satellite imagery, this coud well be developing into the season's first typhoon, after the first five systems failed to do so. Looks like an eye is taking shape quite nicely in the central dense overcast:

 

 

 

 

[Coast]

 

After moving through the Philippines, strengthening Tropical Storm Rumbia is now on a collision course with South China.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center expects Rumbia to slam onshore early Tuesday morning (local time, Monday afternoon EDT) between Hong Kong and the Luichow Peninsula. More specifically, landfall will occur between the Leizhou Bay and Yangjiang.

Rumbia will be a strong tropical storm or minimal typhoon at that time, but its impacts on South China will be the same regardless of its exact classification.

 

The compact nature of Rumbia's damaging winds will confine wind speeds of 50 to 80 mph (80 to 130 kph) to within a small area along the coast where Rumbia makes landfall. Rumbia's storm surge will be responsible for water levels reaching 2 to 4 feet (0.5 to 1.2 meters), perhaps up to 5 feet (1.5 meters) in isolated areas, above normal high-tide along the coastline, according to AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Anthony Sagliani.

 

 

Flooding rain will definitely be the most widespread danger to residents in South China. Rumbia's heaviest rain will remain on its southern and western side, bringing the possibility of 5 to 10 inches (120 mm to 250 mm) of rain to communities from northern Hainan Island to the western half of Guangdong province. While locally higher amounts are possible (especially in the higher terrain), Rumbia will move quick enough through South China to prevent widespread rain totals in excess of a foot (300 mm). However, serious flash flooding is still a significant concern since the majority of Rumbia's rain will pour down in 12 to 24 hours. Mudslides could also unfold in the higher terrain.

 

Hong Kong should escape the worst of Rumbia with squally rain bands instead delivering 1 to 2 inches of rain, but residents are urged to not let their guard down. AccuWeather.com International Expert Meteorologist Jim Andrews warns that a track closer to the city than currently expected would increase the threat for a period of damaging winds. After making landfall early Tuesday morning, Rumbia should dissipate by Wednesday.

 

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-storm-rumbia-targets/14794523

[Somerset Squall]

Rumbia has become the first typhoon of the season, with winds now at 65kts. Rumbia has probably peaked, as shear is set to increase further as the typhoon approaches the coast.

[Somerset Squall]

Rumbia remains a 65kt typhoon.The typhoon is grazing eastern Hainan Island, bringing damaging winds and torrential rain here. It seems like Rumbia is refusing to weaken, and will probably still be a 55kt+ system at final landfall.

[Somerset Squall]

Rumbia has made landfall in China north of Hainan Island. The storm is being degraded by land interaction and high shear. Intensity is down to 40kts. JTWC have issued their last advisory, though heavy rains remain a threat as Rumbia dissipates.

[Coast]

 

Fine, hot weather is expected to return late this week after severe tropical storm Rumbia moves across the South China Sea and edges closer towards western Guangdong. The Observatory issued the standby typhoon signal No 1 at 9.10am on Sunday and the strong wind signal No 3 at 1.15pm yesterday. Rumbia is due to be closest to the city overnight, the Observatory said.

 

It did not expect to have to issue higher warnings. Rumbia is the second tropical storm to sweep through Hong Kong this summer, following Bebinca late last month. In March, the Observatory predicted that four to seven tropical storms would affect Hong Kong this year. At midnight, Rumbia was estimated to be about 380 kilometres southwest of Hong Kong and forecast to move northwest at about 22 km/h towards western Guangdong. Wind speeds of 41 to 62 km/h were expected, the Observatory said.

 

Rainbands and clouds associated with the storm brought squally showers to the coast of Guangdong, and more than 20mm of rainfall was recorded over parts of the city yesterday afternoon. There were no reports of flooding or injuries. Kindergartens, as well as schools for children with physical disabilities and schools for children with intellectual disabilities were suspended.

 

 

http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1273361/tropical-storm-rumbia-due-swing-south-hong-kong