east pacific Hurricane Dalila

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Storm Dalila has formed off the south coast of Mexico. Sustained winds are 35kts. Dalila is a small tropical storm with a modest amount of convection covering the LLCC. The environment favours strengthening, with low shear and warm waters being evident. Dalila is forecast to move north towards the Mexico coast along the western side of a ridge to the east. Dalila should turn westwards before reaching the coast as a strong ridge to the north assumes steering influence in a day or two. Dalila has about 72hrs to strengthen, and NHC forecast a peak of 60kts so it is not out of the question for Dalila to become a hurricane.

[Somerset Squall]

Dalila has strengthened to 50kts. The storm remains very small but has become tightly wrapped this afternoon, with much improved banding and deep, centralised convection. Dalila is now moving northwestwards and will gradually bend westwards over the next couple of days. Dalila is expected to become a minimal hurricane as shear remains fairly low and waters warm for about the next 36hrs. Thereafter, cooler waters and drier air will cause Dalila to begin weakening.

[summer blizzard]

Can't say i'm impressed with this one, not really anything of interest.

[Gray-Wolf]

Helps ease to boredom before we enter peak storm period though?

[Somerset Squall]

Dalila appears to be approaching hurricane intensity. The small storm retains a central dense overcast feature flanked by strong banding. Intensity has increased to 55kts. I expect Dalila will become a hurricane by tomorrow morning if current trends continue. The storm is pulling away from the coast now so the rains from Dalila's outer bands should ease soon.

[Gray-Wolf]

I take it 'surfs up!' along the California coast though?

[Somerset Squall]

I wouldn't be surprised GW, though Dalila has turned into a midget this morning! Dalila strengthened to 60kts overnight but has since weakened to 55kts. The small central dense overcast has shrunk even further. To the naked eye, Dalila just looks like a spot of convection, though on closer inspection it is indeed still a compact high end tropical storm. The forecst has become somewhat interesting this morning. Invest 97E has formed to Dalila's southeast. This disturbance is expected to approach TS Dalila over the next few days. What this will do to Dalila's track is uncertain. It could well drag the storm southwestwards or southwards. This could stop Dalila's journey into colder waters and instead move it back into very warm water again. Whilst this could delay or even stop weakening, if tiny Dalila gets dragged too close to the new invest in a Fujiwara Interaction, then Dalila could get absorbed by 97E. It'll be interesting to see what happens. The once straightforward westward track is literally up in the air this morning as the models are all over the place.

[Somerset Squall]

Dalila has become a hurricane, the third of the East Pacific season. The small storm has developed a cloud obscured eye which has been fleetingly visible in satellite imagery. Dalila is not expected to hold the current 65kt intensity for long as dry air continues to affect the tiny hurricane.

[Coast]

 

MIAMI - Hurricane Dalila is drifting westward and farther away from Mexico's Pacific coast.

 

The storm late Tuesday had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 kph). The storm is centred about 325 miles (523 kilometres) west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. It was drifting to the west near 2 mph (3 kph). The government of Mexico has issued no storm warnings or watches for the coast. Little change in strength is expected over the next 48 hours.The National Hurricane Center in Miami said swells generated by Dalila are affecting portions of the southwest coast of Mexico.

 

The biggest danger is heavy surf and rip currents.

 

 

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Dalila+strengthens+into+hurricane+moves+away+from+Mexicos/8606562/story.html#ixzz2XxgBbFzX

[Somerset Squall]

Tiny Dalila has remained a 65kt hurricane this evening. If anything, Dalila has become even smaller! This is probably due to dry air surrounding the hurricane, which is not penetrating the core of Dalila currently as shear remains fairly low. The hurricane has been very slow moving over the last day but should pick up a slightly south of west track soon as ridging rebuilds to the north.

 

Look how tiny she is! The size difference between Dalila and the last hurricane, Cosme, is quite something!

[summer blizzard]

Incredible.

[Somerset Squall]

Shear has increased overnight, driving dry air into the core of Dalila. As a consequence, the deep convection associated with Dalila has pretty much diminished, and what is left is displaced from the LLCC. Dalila's intensity has fallen to 50kts. Based on the highly disorganised state of Dalila, the storm may not be long for this world as it moves slowly westward. Such a small storm was very vunerable to a poor envrionment, and the shear has really done a number of Dalila.

[Coast]

 

MIAMI - Tropical Storm Dalila (dah-LY-lah) is weakening fast as it drifts westward in the Pacific away from Mexico's coast.

 

Dalila's maximum sustained winds late Wednesday were 60 mph (97 kph). Dalila is centred about 285 miles (459 kilometres) west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and was moving westward at 5 mph (8 kph). Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says swells generated by Dalila affected parts of Mexico's southwestern coast.

 

 

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Hurricane+Dalila+drifting+southwestward+Pacific+Mexicos/8610213/story.html#ixzz2Y3a6yJdM

[Zenarcher]

Sat image,

 

[Somerset Squall]

Dalila has become completely convectionless this evening, and unless convection makes a comeback, it will soon be a remnant low. Intensity is 35kts currently, but I expected Dalila will be downgraded to a tropical depression next advisory as it moves westwards.

[Somerset Squall]

Dalila has been downgraded to a tropical depression with winds of 30kts. A small area of convection has fired over the LLCC this morning as Dalila remains over marginally warm waters. However, this is not expected to persist as shear remains moderate to high and the air dry.

[Somerset Squall]

Dalila is clinging on as a tropical depression today. Winds are 25kts. Convection had completely dissipated last night, but has re-developed over the LLCC today. TS Erick is approaching from the east, and Dalila's westward motion is slowing as result of it being inluenced by Erick. Erick's outflow will strongly shear Dalila over the coming days, so the stubborn depression should't survive much longer. It has already lasted longer than expected however.

[Coast]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013

800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013

A LITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF THE

LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DALILA EARLIER...BUT THE LAST SIGNIFICANT BURST

DISSIPATED A FEW HOURS AGO. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND

SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE ERICK IS

SQUELCHING THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO

DO SO ACCORDING TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS

ABSENT OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MUCH LONGER...IT WILL LIKELY BE

DESIGNATED A REMNANT LOW. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER IF NO NEW CONVECTION

REFORMS SOON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND

IN LINE WITH THE BULK OF THE MODEL INTENSITY OUTPUT.

DALILA DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...

BUT APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED ITS HEADING TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-

SOUTHEAST MORE RECENTLY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE OR ITS

REMNANTS GRADUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF

HURRICANE ERICK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FIRST MOVING

EASTWARD AND THEN TURNING NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS

NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS GENERALLY

LEFT OR NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 16.8N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

12H 07/1200Z 16.8N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24H 08/0000Z 16.9N 112.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 08/1200Z 17.4N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 09/0000Z 18.0N 112.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 10/0000Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP4+shtml/050246.shtml

[Somerset Squall]

Dalila has been declared a remnant low. The low is being dragged towards TS Erick, and will be absorbed soon. Therefore, regeneration is not expected.