Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen
IGNORED

Tropical Storm Mangkhut


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    The tenth tropical depression of the West Pacific season formed in the central South China Sea (SCS) yesterday, and has since become Tropical Storm Mangkhut, with winds estimated to be at 35kts by JMA. The track is very similar to TS Jebi's, but just further to the southwest. The storm is very broad in nature, with sprawling bands and little deep centralised convection. This suggests strengthening will be slow- however it's worth noting that Jebi looked very similar and managed to strengthen quite rapidly to near typhoon intensity as it approached Hainan Island last week. I'm not saying Mangkhut will do the same but there is a small chance of a similar strengthening episode, as shear is low and waters warm. The most likely outcome however, is for slow strengthening, perhaps to a mid-range tropical storm of about 45 or 50kt intensity. Ridging to the northeast and east if expected to guide Mangkhut to the northwest over the coming days, through the northern SCS into the Gulf Of Tonkin, roughly parallel to the coast of central and northern Vietnam. As Mangkhut is a large storm, rains will be felt through northern Vietnam, Hainan Island and the neighbouring Chinese coast. Mangkhut is expected to make landfall in northern Vietnam in a couple days time.

    Edited by Somerset Squall
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    • Replies 2
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Days

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

     

    JTWC Advisory:

     

     

    WTPN31 PGTW 061500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 004    
       UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       061200Z --- NEAR 15.9N 110.1E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 110.1E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       070000Z --- 17.8N 108.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       071200Z --- 19.6N 106.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       080000Z --- 20.9N 105.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       081200Z --- 21.5N 104.1E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 109.7E.
    TROPICAL STORM 10W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104 NM
    EASTWARD OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
    061200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 
    071500Z.  //
    NNNN
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Mangkhut peaked at 40kts. The storm is making landfall in Northern Vietnam. Because of the large and sprawling nature of the storm, dangerous flooding rains are widespread across Vietnam, southern China, Hainan Island and even Thailand. Mangkhut should weaken now over land but even when the circulation dissipates, the rain will likely continue for several days.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
     Share

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...