east pacific Tropical Storm Kiko

[Somerset Squall]

The eleventh tropical depression of the season has formed well southwest of Baja California. The depression has sustained winds of 30kts, and some deep convection over the LLCC. 11E is still embedded in the ITCZ, and will find it difficult to strengthen as long as this is the case. 11E is expected to drift slowly north and intensify over the next couple of days, before reaching cooler water and increasing shear. This will quickly reverse the strengthening trend, and cause the system to weaken. As the depression becomes a remnant low, the weak system may be dragged back south towards the ITCZ. 11E is forecast to become a weak tropical storm over the next day or so, but significant strengthening is not expected. 11E should not affect land.

[Somerset Squall]

Yikes! This was unexpected. Still a 30kt tropical depression at the 4pm update but this most definitely IS NOT a tropical depression now. High end TS to my untrained eye at least.

 

[summer blizzard]

It's got a bloody eye!!!

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 11E is now Tropical Storm Kiko, with winds of 50kts. Against all expectations, the cyclone has rapidly intensified. Further strengthening may occur over the next day as shear remains low and waters warm along the very slow north-northwesterly track. NHC forecast a peak of 60kts, but also mention that Kiko could become a hurricane prior to weakening as the storm moves over cooler water and increased shear.

 

A perfect example of how limited our skill at forecasting changes in tropical cyclone intensity are, and summed up nicely by NHC:

 

THE UNEXPECTED RAPID INTENSIFICATION MAY BE ASCRIBED TO THE LOWVERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT THE CYCLONEIS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN.  HOWEVER...NONE OF OUR STATISTICAL NORDYNAMICAL MODELS HAD A CLUE THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY AS MUCHAS IT DID. 

[summer blizzard]

 

Was definitely a hurricane earlier.

 

[Somerset Squall]

Mmm, maybe, it'll be interesting to see in post-storm analysis. Tropical storms can sometimes have eye-like features, particularly ones that are intensifying fast.

 

From Wiki

 

Eye-like features

An eye-like structure is often found in intensifying tropical cyclones. Similar to the eye seen in hurricanes or typhoons, it is a circular area at the circulation center of the storm in which convection is absent. These eye-like features are most normally found in intensifying tropical storms and hurricanes of Category 1 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, an eye-like feature was found in Hurricane Beta when the storm had maximum wind speeds of only 80 km/h (50 mph), well below hurricane force.^[24] The features are typically not visible on visible wavelengths or infrared wavelengths from space, although they are easily seen on microwave satellite imagery.^[25] Their development at the middle levels of the atmosphere is similar to the formation of a complete eye, but the features might be horizontally displaced due to vertical wind shear.^[26][27]

 

Edited August 31, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Coast]

 

Tropical Storm Kiko Nears Hurricane Strength

 

Tropical Storm Kiko (KEE'-koh) is quickly nearing hurricane strength in the eastern Pacific, but still poses no threat to land. The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Saturday that Kiko was centered about 430 miles (690 kms) southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California peninsula. It had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 kmh) and was moving north at 7 mph (11 kmh). 

 

The hurricane center said Kiko could become a hurricane Sunday, but is likely to weaken by Monday. There are no warnings or watches in effect for land.

 

 

 

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/tropical-depression-forms-pacific-20126569

[Somerset Squall]

As Coasts post says, Kiko is approaching hurricane strength. The storm has a small central dense overcast, with an eye beginning to form. The eye-feature of yesterday quickly dissapeared but this forming eye could become persistant enough for Kiko to briefly become a hurricane. Sustained winds are 60kts, so Kiko is nearly there. Kiko has about another 12hrs to strengthen before weakening begins.

[Somerset Squall]

Kiko, officially, has remained a tropical storm. However, NHC mention that Kiko could've briefly been a hurricane this afternoon. Winds are still at 60kts. Kiko is on the edge of conducively warm waters, so weakening should begin tonight as the sea temps shelve off quickly, and dry and stable air affects the storm.

[Somerset Squall]

Dry and stable air, along with declining sea temps, have caused Kiko to weaken this evening. Winds are down to 50kts. The storm continues to crawl very slowly to the north. The LLCc is partially exposed as the dry air eats away at the convection. Further weakening is expected, and Kiko could fall apart pretty quickly.

[Coast]

On it's way out now?

 

 

Tropical Storm KIKO: Probability of tropical storm winds to 9 hours lead

 

[Somerset Squall]

Kiko has weakened to a tropical depression, with winds down to 30kts. The LLC has been devoid of convection for much of the day but recently and isolated cell has fired north of the centre. But really, this isn't enough to sustain Kiko so the clock is ticking.

[Somerset Squall]

Kiko has been declared a remnant low. Regeneration is not expected as the low has stalled over colder water in a dry environment. Little motion is expected before the low fully dissipates.