Tropcial Storm Gabrielle

[summer blizzard]

000WTNT42 KNHC 042057TCDAT2TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013500 PM AST WED SEP 04 2013AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT THELOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS JUST ENOUGH OF ACIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICALDEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON A 41 KTFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE.THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FORSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT REMAINS FAR ENOUGHAWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DUETO THE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED INITIAL STATE OF THE DEPRESSION. AFTERTHAT TIME...A COMBINATION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANDPOSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION COULD SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THECYCLONE. THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCEENVELOPE...AND IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. THEWIND SPEED PREDICTION ALSO FITS THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE GLOBALMODELS...WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRUGGLE AFTER ITLEAVES THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME INTENSIFICATION...PERHAPS DUE TOBAROCLINIC PROCESSES...IS POSSIBLE AT LONG RANGE AS THE CYCLONEINTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING ROUGHLY 305/8 AROUND THESOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRALATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ISEXPECTED TO CAUSE THE RIDGE TO BREAK ALONG ABOUT 70W...WHICH SHOULDCAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD IN TWO OR THREE DAYS. ONECOMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE LARGER DISTURBANCE LOCATED A FEW HUNDREDMILES NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWOFEATURES MAKES THIS TRACK FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN THAN WOULD BESUGGESTED BY THE OVERALL MODEL SPREAD. THE NHC FORECAST IS NOT TOOFAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS EARLY ON...AND THEN IS A BIT SLOWERTHAN THE CONSENSUS AFTER THAT TIME...PUTTING LESS WEIGHT ON THENORTHWARD GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 04/2100Z 16.5N 66.2W 30 KT 35 MPH12H 05/0600Z 17.4N 67.1W 35 KT 40 MPH24H 05/1800Z 18.6N 68.1W 40 KT 45 MPH36H 06/0600Z 19.7N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH48H 06/1800Z 20.9N 69.2W 40 KT 45 MPH72H 07/1800Z 23.1N 69.4W 45 KT 50 MPH96H 08/1800Z 25.3N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH120H 09/1800Z 29.0N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH$FORECASTER BLAKE

 

 

.........................

 

NHC being a little bearish there going with the global (who to be fair have the better record) however it's worth pointing out that 2 or 3 minor models brought this to category 4 and even the ships suggests a higher than average chance of rapid intensification.

 

Track could be a lot better but if it hits Haiti on the edge and while it's still fairly weak it will probably cope better.

 

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.9%)Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%)Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%)Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

 

 

 

 

[Somerset Squall]

Thought this was looking good earlier, so not entirely surprised to see the upgrade to TD 07L. Not entirely sure why you say "fish food most likely" though SB, because 07L will certainly be affecting land and people. Dominican Republic look in the firing line along with Puerto Rico, from some flooding rains over the next day or so as 07L threads between the two. Haiti may well escape the worst being on the western side of the land mass of Hispaniola, but some heavy rains could occur here too. Looks like a trough will then pull 07L northeastwards out into the Atlantic. How much 07L strengthens is of course open to question as you say SB, and does very much hinge on how much 07L interacts with Dominican Republic.

 

Edited September 5, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[lorenzo]

Good Morning Gabrielle.

 

I fear for my username this month, hope L if it develops is indeed a fish.

 

[Coast]

"Turn right at the next Island"

 

Tropical Storm GABRIELLE: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 117 hours lead

 

 

 

 

Tropical Storm GABRIELLE: Probability of tropical storm winds to 117 hours lead

 

[Coast]

 

Tropical Storm Gabrielle formed in the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and was forecast to drench Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic as it headed into the Atlantic, forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

 

The storm was centred about 70 miles (110 km) south of San Juan, Puerto Rico. It was expected to curve slowly to the northwest and then turn to the northeast on a path that would take it east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas during the weekend, forecasters said. Gabrielle packed top sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph), according to the hurricane centre. It was expected to strengthen slowly through Monday but had little chance of growing into the season's first hurricane, forecasters said.

 

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/09/05/uk-storm-gabrielle-idUKBRE98404H20130905

 

[Somerset Squall]

Convection is exploding over Gabrielle this morning, with an increasingly large area of very deep convection evident. Puerto Rico is getting drenched with some torrential rainfall at present, and although The Dominican Republic is mainly dry for now, the torrential rains are likely to affect here soon. Winds are at 35kts. The environment is providing mixed signals as to whether Gabrielle can intensify much. Shear is fairly low (for now), and the outflow pattern is good, with poleward outflow being particularly strong in water vapour imagery. However, the air to the north of Gabrielle is dry, and Gabrielle should run into this dry air soon. Additionally, land interaction could holt strengthening, and the strong tropical wave located to Gabrielle's east could also interfere with development. After Gabrielle passes north of the Dominican Republic, strong shear ahead of the trough that's expected to lift Gabrielle northeast could destroy Gabrielle, or at least weaken the cyclone. Unless the high shear in this area eases, I have a hard time believing Gabrielle will survive long once it clears the islands and moves out into the Atlantic.

Edited September 5, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[summer blizzard]

Certainly a strange one. It looks to me as if the center has shifted north east and that Gabrielle has being absorbing the wave behind. Either I have the center wrong or this is going the wrong side of Puerto Rico.

[hec1]

...GABRIELLE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION......WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSIONGABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24HOUR OR SO.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GABRIELLE HAS BECOME VERY POORLY ORGANIZED...ANDIT IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA TONIGHTOR FRIDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHESBASED ON A COMBINATION OF AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERAIRCRAFT AND SURFACE DATA.

[Coast]

...GABRIELLE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION...

 

In so many respects, the theme for this season!  

[summer blizzard]

How depressing. Score for the ECWMF though.

[Coast]

 

Tropical storm Gabrielle brushes Puerto Rico, still no hurricanes

 

Tropical Storm Gabrielle, the seventh named storm of the season, is bringing stormy conditions to the northern Caribbean today before heading out into the open Atlantic.  We still await the first hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic season. 

 

 

An Air Force reconnaissance plane reached it by mid-afternoon and was quick to find a closed surface circulation — at which point it was upgraded to tropical depression 7.  By the next advisory at 11 p.m. EDT, satellite data indicated it had intensified and it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Gabrielle.

As of 8 a.m. EDT this morning, Gabrielle is centered over eastern Puerto Rico and has sustained winds of 40mph.  Tropical storm warnings are in effect for all of Puerto Rico and the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic.  I have a very long radar loop (starts Wednesday morning and is still growing) from San Juan available that shows the storm organizing and condensing as it approaches Puerto Rico.

 

Early morning radar image of Gabrielle from San Juan. (NOAA)

Although Gabrielle is lashing Puerto Rico with some gusty winds and heavy rains, it has become quite disorganized this morning due to interaction with land. It is becoming increasingly difficult to find a circulation center. Despite its current troubles, the forecast from the National Hurricane Center is for gradual intensification over the next 5 days as it heads north then northeast… out into the open Atlantic, perhaps brushing close to Bermuda by early next week.  The GFS deterministic and ensemble models have fairly high confidence in the storm tracking north for a couple more days before recurving to the northeast.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/09/05/tropical-storm-gabrielle-brushes-puerto-rico-still-no-hurricanes/

[Somerset Squall]

Haha what a joke Gabrielle was! I thought the others were bad enough LOL. Will it come back from the grave? I'm leaning towards not. I can't believe that, at this stage in the season, Andrea remains the strongest TC so far at 55kt tropical storm intensity back in June!

[summer blizzard]

Recon in now. Apparently a circulation but very weak (well below TD status). Convection is still occurring so there's some hope i suppose and NHC have a 40% chance of development within 5 days.

 

Personally i'd rather it died now.

[Coast]

 

Tropical Storm Gabrielle was yet another short-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone in early September 2013.

 

Gabrielle was first designated as Tropical Depression Seven in the late afternoon of Sep. 4, finding a "sweet spot" of low wind shear just south of Puerto Rico. After a brief 12-hour stint as a tropical storm, Gabrielle was downgraded to a tropical depression late in the morning on Sep. 5, as its initial low-level circulation center (just south of southeast tip of the Dominican Republic) became detached well to the west of the most vigorous convection (eastern Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands).

 

Another 12 hours later, the National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory on Gabrielle. Gabrielle's main impacts were bands of locally heavy rain in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.  Over 10 inches of rain soaked St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, collapsing a road and trapping at least one vehicle in Charlotte Amalie.

 

Interestingly, despite Gabrielle's weak, brief nature, 2013's "G" storm formed 12 days earlier than the long-term average date (Sep. 16).

 

 

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/tropical-depression-seven-storm-hurricane-gabrielle-20130829

[summer blizzard]

And she awakes, should make landfall in Nova Scotia as well.

 

000
WTNT42 KNHC 100845
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
500 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE. IN ADDITION...AN EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASS
CONTAINED SOME 34- TO 36-KT WIND VECTORS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER
AND OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41049 LOCATED MORE THAN 100 NMI
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING TO AT LEAST
31 KT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO RECONNOITER THE CYCLONE THIS
AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE EXACT
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF GABRIELLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10 KT...WHICH IS BASED MAINLY ON
LIMITED MICROWAVE FIXES. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON GABRIELLE MOVING NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND
SLOWING DOWN DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A RETROGRADING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR NEAR BERMUDA IN ABOUT
24 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO LIFT OUT
AND ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 96 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BUT
OVER 28-29C SSTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME ADDITONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF BY 48 HOURS AS SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...GABRIELLE WILL
BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C SSTS AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 96 HOURS WHEN WATER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LESS THAN 20C. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 29.6N  65.0W 35 KT  40 MPH
12H  10/1800Z 31.1N  65.0W 40 KT  45 MPH
24H  11/0600Z 32.7N  65.2W 45 KT  50 MPH
36H  11/1800Z 33.7N  65.7W 45 KT  50 MPH
48H  12/0600Z 34.5N  66.3W 45 KT  50 MPH
72H  13/0600Z 37.7N  65.9W 45 KT  50 MPH
96H  14/0600Z 46.8N  58.6W 45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  15/0600Z 56.5N  41.9W 45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

 

 

[Somerset Squall]

Yep, Gabrielle's back from the grave well north of the eastern Caribbean where it died. Although Gabrielle is a little sheared, it should become a little stronger than it's first measely 35kt peak as it moves north then northeast.

[Konstantinos]

What about Invest 92? It is near Gabrielle or it was?

[summer blizzard]

Stronger than predicted, at 50mph. Recon is in this afternoon.

 

What about Invest 92? It is near Gabrielle or it was?

 

It died. The mid level vortex from Gabrielle remained dominant.

[summer blizzard]

Now at 60mph.

[Somerset Squall]

Gabrielle peaked at 50kts but shear has gotten the better of the storm, stripping the convection away from the LLCC. Winds have dropped to 45kts, and further weakening is expected as shear remains high.

[Coast]

 

Tropical storm Gabrielle heading to Maritimes, Newfoundland

 

Tropical storm Gabrielle is forecast to bring rain that at times will be heavy to parts of Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island on Friday. Environment Canada says a rainfall warning will be in effect for parts of central and northeastern Nova Scotia, and Queens and Kings counties in P.E.I., with local rainfall amounts of up to 70 millimetres and, in some areas, possibly as much as 100 millimetres. It says these rainfall amounts could cause localized flooding.

 

Wind gusts in eastern Nova Scotia and Cape Breton are forecast to reach up to 90 kilometres an hour on Friday night.

Forecasters says Gabrielle will reach western Newfoundland on Saturday morning when it could merge with another weather front. Meanwhile, rainfall warnings were also issued for parts of northwestern New Brunswick, but those warnings were associated with a separate weather system.

 

Still, the New Brunswick Emergency Measures Organization said people in the Perth-Andover, Grand Falls and Florenceville-Bristol areas should prepare for localized flooding. High winds Wednesday in western New Brunswick uprooted trees and damaged the Woodstock Civic Centre. The Canadian Hurricane Centre in Halifax said the storm was northwest of Bermuda on Thursday. "The storm centre itself is not expected to have much of a direct impact on the region," the centre said in an information bulletin. "What is left of Gabrielle's wind will likely clip eastern Nova Scotia Friday night."

 

 

http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/tropical-storm-gabrielle-heading-to-maritimes-newfoundland-1.1451201#ixzz2el9lEA00

[Somerset Squall]

Gabrielle has fluctuated between tropical depression and tropical storm status over the last couple days as it turns northeastwards towards Nova Scotia. Currently, Gabrielle is a tropical depression with sheared convection, but it could re-attain tropical storm status before then becoming extratropical near Nova Scotia.

[Somerset Squall]

Gabrielle has become extratropical and is delivering high winds and rain to Nova Scotia.