South West & Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/10/13 15z ------>

[Mapantz]

Anywhere from ST Aldhelms/Albans head around to Durlston would be good. Parking up on the Purbeck hills too, there's a great spot not far from me.  

[Nights King]

Evening so what's the latest on the great blow of 2013? We still in the sweet spot?

 

It's precipitating outside at the moment, quite nasty indeed but very mild at 14.4c 

Edited October 25, 2013 by mullender83

[festivalking]

Anywhere from ST Aldhelms/Albans head around to Durlston would be good. Parking up on the Purbeck hills too, there's a great spot not far from me.

 

I must say I feel quite jealous I'm not round them parts anymore for the event. Just hope my current elevated abode is enough for the white stuff this year!

[124alex]

how's somerset going to far sunday night and Monday morning?

[egret]

how's somerset going to far sunday night and Monday morning?

Not sure the sea spray will reach you Illminster, but in 1990 you could taste it on your lips in Dorchester at lunch time, 12+ miles from Chesil beach! (and no that wasn't after a bag of crisps)

[124alex]

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather 15m

A broad expectation for the W Country is for highest gusts (70mph+) early hrs Mon to be most widely across W & S #Somerset and #Dorset...

[Gibby]

Leaving the storm on Monday to one side there has been some very lively downpours across Radstock since lunchtime with some incredible high rain rates and wind gusts albeit briefly. A total of 5-6mm of rain this afternoon on top of last nights 6-7mm has made for another very wet and windy day here

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather 15m

A broad expectation for the W Country is for highest gusts (70mph+) early hrs Mon to be most widely across W & S #Somerset and #Dorset...

That suggests the centre might be moving up the Bristol Channel or across the South Coast of Wales.

[stevofunnelcl]

Just watched a catch up video, David Braine doing a forecast for the south-west

He'll be doing a live forecast shortly on Spotlight

 

Pretty Concerning

60 to 80mph winds

 

The only good news, it's hitting in the early hours of the morning for this neck of the woods, unless the timing changes

 

Probably be all over by toast & cornflakes

[AWD]

Probably be all over by toast & cornflakes

Unless like me, you'll be up for work and enroute to Westbury at 04:00!

[Sainsbo]

Here in Swindon winds always seem to be minimal, even during these deep areas of low pressure. I don't see this being much different. I'd give it a max of 50mph here. For all of you who live in Devon, Cornwall, Somerset and Dorset, and especially near the coast, try and stay safe! Things can still change between now and then, but the track hasn't changed much today, and it will take a lot of weakening to see this not being a problem of some kind.

[Tamara]

Hello everyone

 

As usual, the possibility of some extreme weather has brought me here again!

 

I have to say, I dread high winds as I am a poor home owner of an aging house and fear for my roof and suchlike I do much prefer the anticipation of snow.

 

I wonder what Bracknell can expect this weekend?

 

It is lovely and sunny at the moment!  17.4c!!!

I'm not in the region but as Bracknell is not far away and no-one replied to your post then I will instead .  Its a case of keep watching, but *hopefully* your house will be ok where you are further inland away from the worst of the winds. That said, gusts in excess of 60mph and more are quite likely and so it would be worth securing things in the garden etc to stop them blowing about. Also with trees in leaf then some branches brought down are likely and a few trees uprooted with saturated roots.

 

I agree - the anticipation of snow is much much better!

[khodds]

Evening all,

The rain has been torrential here in the last half hour, but have missed the earlier showers, unlike Gibby up the road so it seems.

So... Are we all ready for Sunday/Monday? I'm sitting on the fence until tomorrow, when we get a real handle on the situation. I love a good storm as much as the rest of you, but have seen disappointment - remember the potential snowstorm we were meant to get (can't remember if it was late last year or early this year) which ended up clobbering the IOW bad France? I know it's a different scenario, but still... I'll wait until this time tomorrow before I start to get excited... If I should be excited at something that may cause devastation and (hopefully not) loss of life..

[Nights King]

Evening all,

The rain has been torrential here in the last half hour, but have missed the earlier showers, unlike Gibby up the road so it seems.

So... Are we all ready for Sunday/Monday? I'm sitting on the fence until tomorrow, when we get a real handle on the situation. I love a good storm as much as the rest of you, but have seen disappointment - remember the potential snowstorm we were meant to get (can't remember if it was late last year or early this year) which ended up clobbering the IOW bad France? I know it's a different scenario, but still... I'll wait until this time tomorrow before I start to get excited... If I should be excited at something that may cause devastation and (hopefully not) loss of life..

 

Lets not mention the missed snowstorm of decade I get emotional about that..

 

I am still awaiting a storm like the one of the 80's I remember it when I lived in high Wycombe going to school and by lunch time I could hardly walk it was so windy so we all lifted our coats over our heads and watched the gusts throw us a few feet pretending we could fly!  Then we got sent home and I watched out the window as about 4 trees a green house and our roof got demolished. The local forest of beech was completely felled except for about one row of trees. Spent half my childhood messing around with all the tree root holes and making dens under them. I sceptical I shall ever see a storm of that magnitude again but I live in hope.

[khodds]

It's been ages since we had a good storm I agree. I remember when I was little, being blown along the pavement in Wells - I wonder if this was the Burns Day storm? As it can't be the 1987 one, that was at night time. I await the next model runs with abated breath...

[Mumbles]

Chances for Sherborne to see this storm coming to anything of concern? Anyone?

[Gibby]

THE STORM SYSTEM GFS takes the storm across Wales and the Midlands at a pressure of 975mbs falling to 970mbs as it exits Eastern England. All of Southern Britain would be affected by winds with gusts to 70mph + in exposed locations and near Bristol Channel and English Channel Coasts.

 

UKMO has the low a little more south tonight tracking into the Bristol channel at 980mbs in the early hours of Monday morning and exiting the east Coast at 970mbs with the strongest 70mph+ winds affecting English Channel coasts worst of all.

 

GEM has the Low entering SW England at 985mbs in the early hours of Monday and exiting the East Norfolk coast at 970mbs with the strongest winds here in the Eastern English Channel but less problematical for many Southern areas.

 

NAVGEM shows the Low more vigorous with it's centre sub 970mbs in the Bristol Channel on Monday morning and down to below 965mbs as it leaves the Humber coast. All of Southern Britain would likely be affected by storm force winds with gusts to 70-80mph for a time through Monday.

 

ECM shows the Low crossing Wales on Monday morning and on ENE into the North Sea on Monday afternoon with severe gales or storm force winds buffeting the South of England and South Wales through the day.

Edited October 25, 2013 by Gibby

[gottolovethisweather]

Evening all,

 

I'm sitting on the fence until tomorrow,

 

 

 

You won't be sitting on your fence late Sunday into Monday, that's for sure.

[khodds]

You won't be sitting on your fence late Sunday into Monday, that's for sure.

Hee hee! I could try!

[gottolovethisweather]

THE STORM SYSTEM GFS takes the storm across Wales and the Midlands at a pressure of 975mbs falling to 970mbs as it exits Eastern England. All of Southern Britain would be affected by winds with gusts to 70mph + in exposed locations and near Bristol Channel and English Channel Coasts.

 

UKMO has the low a little more south tonight tracking into the Bristol channel at 980mbs in the early hours of Monday morning and exiting the east Coast at 970mbs with the strongest 70mph+ winds affecting English Channel coasts worst of all.

 

GEM has the Low entering SW England at 985mbs in the early hours of Monday and exiting the East Norfolk coast at 970mbs with the strongest winds here in the Eastern English Channel but less problematical for many Southern areas.

 

NAVGEM shows the Low more vigorous with it's centre sub 970mbs in the Bristol Channel on Monday morning and down to below 965mbs as it leaves the Humber coast. All of Southern Britain would likely be affected by storm force winds with gusts to 70-80mph for a time through Monday.

 

ECM shows the Low crossing Wales on Monday morning and on ENE into the North Sea on Monday afternoon with severe gales or storm force winds buffeting the South of England and South Wales through the day.

 

Thanks Gibby, I would say that the current thinking with the BBC forecasts I've seen, the MetO are largely ignoring their own UKMO model and are using a blend of the NAVGEM and the ECM. Whatever does indeed come to fruition, the South Coast looks to be the region taking the fullest impact and that has been consistent run on run.

[gottolovethisweather]

On a side topic, something interesting to set to occur on several evenings during November, tune in to True Movies 1 for more info.

 

http://ow.ly/qbIdf

 

*thanks to my Digiguide updates for this useless bit of information, for you all.

[kaz]

Just watched a catch up video, David Braine doing a forecast for the south-west

He'll be doing a live forecast shortly on Spotlight

 

Pretty Concerning

60 to 80mph winds

 

The only good news, it's hitting in the early hours of the morning for this neck of the woods, unless the timing changes

 

Probably be all over by toast & cornflakes

 

the last time we were forcast theses types of weather conditions, I kid you not that there was not a leaf moving outside my door. It turned out that I was right in the center so no wind at all.. I did see the news of total deverstaion around me and could not believe that not a leaf moved here So if it it going up the Bristol Chanel maybe we will get lucky again.

I bet the seas are going to look lovely on monday, I did see on another thread that some idiot is sailing from Cornwall to the Scils on Monday. I can only hope that was a joke. Anyhow nothing can stop windy weather. Just take care all those on the coast as the tide might be a tad higher than normal. Regarding trees they have done a pretty good job over the years to get rid of dangerous trees and branches.

I think we are going to be just fine..  All those in Scotland are prob wondering what all the fuss is about, just a normal day up there

[Andy Bown]

Evening all,The rain has been torrential here in the last half hour, but have missed the earlier showers, unlike Gibby up the road so it seems.

 

 

Leaving the storm on Monday to one side there has been some very lively downpours across Radstock since lunchtime with some incredible high rain rates and wind gusts albeit briefly. A total of 5-6mm of rain this afternoon on top of last nights 6-7mm has made for another very wet and windy day here

What caused the lines of downpours today? Using the NW radar accumulation facility over the last 12 hours there was distinct linear convection in 3 lines giving plenty of showers from

 

1. St Austell right to Gloucester (with occasional breaks in amounts received)

2. Sidmouth to Chippenham, including the Wells/Radstock parts (again occasional breaks particularly just SW of Shepton Mallet)3. Shaftesbury to Oxford with the worst near Salisbury

 

In between, which included Warminster, there were just occasional sharp showers.

[fergieweather]

Thanks Gibby, I would say that the current thinking with the BBC forecasts I've seen, the MetO are largely ignoring their own UKMO model and are using a blend of the NAVGEM and the ECM. Whatever does indeed come to fruition, the South Coast looks to be the region taking the fullest impact and that has been consistent run on run.

Nope: using UKMO-GM almost without any adaption last 3 days as its continuity has been the best. Moreover it strikes median ground between recent EC and NCEP output. MOGREPS support good. NAVGEM never used in any analyses for this or other scenarios. JMA and ARPEGE are the key comparisons after EC and NCEP.

[karlos1983]

deepening quickly 36 on the GFS 18z

 

 

5mb deeper than the 12z at 60

and exiting at 66

 

 

is it just me or are we now talking monday morning rather than the small hours of monday?

Edited October 25, 2013 by karlos1983

[khodds]

I was just thinking that, it seems to take longer to move through on latest GFS... OH DEAR.