north indian ocean Tropical Cyclone 03 A

[Somerset Squall]

The third tropical cyclone of the 2013 season has formed, the first to form in the Arabian Sea (the other two, Mahasen and Phailin, formed in the Bay Of Bengal) this year. 03A is located a few hundred miles off the east coast of Somalia. Winds are currently at 35kts. The storm has some fairly deep convection over the LLCC, but with little or no banding. Shear is fairly low and waters are warm, so 03A could strengthen a little on the westward track over the next day or so prior to landfall. Dry air off Somalia could hinder development though, so 03A may not get a lot stronger than it is now.

 

[Somerset Squall]

03A has strengthened slightly to 40kts as it approaches the coast of Somalia. The cyclone has a well defined LLC but only a small cluster of convection near the centre. Shear is low to moderate, but the air to the west remains a little dry. With this in mind, 03A could intensify just a little more prior to landfall.

[Somerset Squall]

03A has practically stalled off the coast. Some rains have spread inland but the LLCC and most of the convection remains over water. Winds remain at 40kts. 03A should soon begin to move again and make landfall in about 24 hours time.

[Somerset Squall]

It's taken three days, but 03A has finally limped across the coastline. The system weakened to 35kts prior to landfall as shear increased and dry air enveloped the cyclone. It's dimise should be quick as it moves further inland in Somalia.

[Coast]

 

Tropical Storm THREE: Probability of tropical storm winds to 12 hours lead

[Somerset Squall]

03A has turned out to be more deadly than category 5 Phailin, with over 100 people reported dead in Somalia from this reletively weak cyclone.

[Somerset Squall]

Interesting notes from Jeff Masters about 03A's rare landfall, death toll may rise further as 03A's remains are still producing heavy rains:

 

Rare tropical storm kills 100 in Somalia
Tropical Storm Three in the Arabian Sea made landfall in Somalia, Africa on Sunday, bringing sustained winds of 45 mph to the coast and heavy rains inland. The rains triggered flash floods that killed about 100 people, said President Abdirahman Mohamud Farole. According to the International Disaster Database, EM-DAT, this is the deadliest tropical cyclone in Somalia's history, tied with Tropical Cyclone ARB04 of 1994. According to the International Best Track Archive of storm tracks, only four other tropical storms have hit Somalia since accurate satellite measurements began in 1966: Tropical Cyclone Murjan of 2012, Tropical Cyclone ARB04 of 1994, Tropical Cyclone 12A of 1994, and Tropical Cyclone 4B of 1984.

 

As many as 100 people are believed dead in Somalia's northeastern region of Puntland after a powerful tropical cyclone storm unleashed high wind speeds and flooding that washed away hundreds of houses and livestock across its path along the vast coast of Puntland State, Garowe Online reports. Puntland President Abdirahman Mohamed Farole who Monday held a press conference in Puntland Capital of Garowe has declared, a "Natural Disaster Emergency" in the worst-hit areas of the state and called for immediate response to the calamity, urging the international aid agencies to organize emergency supply delivery via airdrops. He said, as the storm pattern is expected to expand further inland and continue up to Wednesday, there would be substantially more casualties if the much-needed relief efforts are not coordinated properly soon.The government said in statement that many people are without access to food, water and medical care, endangering more lives in the aftermath of the tropical cyclone storm.

 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2577

Edited November 12, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Coast]

 

Green alert for wind impact in Somalia

 

This tropical cyclone is expected to have a low humanitarian impact based on the storm strength and the affected population in the past and forecasted path.

 

Current storm status

 

This report is for advisory number 10 of tropical cyclone THREE-13 issued at 11/11/2013 12:00:00 AM (GDACS Event ID 41145, Latest episode ID: 10).

 

 

Current impact estimate:

 

Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0

Tropical Storm (maximum wind speed of 74 km/h)

Vulnerability of affected countries:

 

Impact of Extreme Wind

 

Affected population

 

Up to 320000 people people can be affected by wind speeds of tropical storm strength or above. In addition, <1000 people people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge.

 

Affected provinces

 

Ethiopia Harerge 5.5 million people

Somalia Bari 430000 people

Somalia Mudug 610000 people

Somalia Nugaal 210000 people

Somalia Sool [unknown]

 

 

http://www.gdacs.org/Cyclones/report.aspx?episodeid=3&eventid=41145&eventtype=TC