South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 03/12/13

[john pike]

hi all

 

london ensembles from gfs

 

 

fi is on the 15th as a 15 degree spread there

 

on these i see no atlantic on these charts

 

boring yes

 

atlantic no

 

look at the difference at 120

 

ukmo

 

 

ecm

 

big difference

 

now gfs

 

lows again put in different position

 

so fi at 120-144

 

also

 

 

these are neutral

 

not positive or negative

 

so no clue as to how this will effect the jet for now

 

solar

 

http://www.solarham.net/

 

was active up until 2 weeks ago but has been quiet since

 

now

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html

 

a very small flare today but nothing of note

 

solar may liven up due to sunspot 1917 later but not certain yet

 

 

the reason for this post is to show how uncertain the outlook still is

 

so stick with 120 for now to keep your sanity intact

 

also heres a quick ramp chart

 

 

 

also tom and chris

 

are you on call christmas day?

Edited December 7, 2013 by john pike

[Jax]

hi all

 

london ensembles from gfs

 

 

fi is on the 15th as a 15 degree spread there

 

on these i see no atlantic on these charts

 

boring yes

 

atlantic no

 

look at the difference at 120

 

ukmo

 

Hi John

 

 

I would have said 14th for when the scatter starts

[john pike]

hi jax

 

i agree

 

thought i would add 1 for luck

[Jax]

hi jax

 

i agree

 

thought i would add 1 for luck

Nothing wrong with that

[Jax]

Just found a new mag that came out this month to read

 

World of Animals

 

anyone else given it a go?

[chilly milly]

Just found a new mag that came out this month to read

 

World of Animals

 

anyone else given it a go?

 

I haven't heard of it, but I'd love to try it. Will keep an eye out.

 

I'm glad your mum is okay Jax. 

[Jax]

I haven't heard of it, but I'd love to try it. Will keep an eye out.

 

I'm glad your mum is okay Jax. 

Thanks CM, mum is back home and sounds a lot better now, last 24 hrs was a worry I admit

 

mag I came across by accident in an email for another one, picked it up today in smiths

 

http://www.magazine.co.uk/magazines/world-of-animals/?infinity=gaw~IMAGI%2BSPART%2BImagine%20Publishing~IMAGI%2BAAI1%2BBRAND%2BWorld%20of%20Animals~30729512924~world%20of%20animals~e&gclid=CKH_65r7nrsCFZHItAodMDMAiw

 

been reading it all evening, for the price I am quite impressed

Edited December 7, 2013 by Jax

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

hi all

 

london ensembles from gfs

 

 

fi is on the 15th as a 15 degree spread there

 

on these i see no atlantic on these charts

 

boring yes

 

atlantic no

 

look at the difference at 120

 

ukmo

 

 

ecm

 

big difference

 

now gfs

 

lows again put in different position

 

so fi at 120-144

 

 

 

 

 

also tom and chris

 

are you on call christmas day?

Crikey, that's a huge variation in NWP output between the big 3.  The UKMO output could be interesting if it verifies

[john pike]

hi norfolk

 

thats my feelings as well

 

going to follow the fax for now to see what it makes of the lows around us

 

some of the mod thread posts today more or less saying mild when they are in fi amazes me

 

my new saying is this

 

f.i is for ramping

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

hi norfolk

 

thats my feelings as well

 

going to follow the fax for now to see what it makes of the lows around us

 

some of the mod thread posts today more or less saying mild when they are in fi amazes me

 

my new saying is this

 

f.i is for ramping

Couldn't agree more

 

(And you never know, one day a ramp MAY be right)

 

I only dip in the MOD thread every so often, as some of the posters on there get very personal, I don't envy the Moderators at all, and we have some good ones

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

seen these ECM charts (in Fi) at T168 and T192??

 

Monster (GFS Style) dartboard low

 

 

and then it was

 

GONE

 

Tends to make you think the output is a little dubious

 

p.s. DON'T tell the Daily Express 

Edited December 7, 2013 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[HammerJack]

Good evening all. Oh dear oh dear... Not great charts.

Me and Mrs LeighD were due our seperate Christmas work parties tonight, and the grandparents were going to be the baby sitters. Unfortunately our children have picked up a horrible bug, and bless the little fellas have been really unwell. So tonight I'm at home, while the Mrs raves it up. Thankfully though, I have a nice bottle of red which which I can enjoy. Would rather be giving it large with my work mates, but children come first, and thankfully they feel a lot better, and should be good for their Christmas party tomorrow.

Have a great evening all....

[john pike]

hi norfolk

 

 

and at 240 back again

 

these must be new cloaked lows

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Good evening all. Oh dear oh dear... Not great charts.

Me and Mrs LeighD were due our seperate Christmas work parties tonight, and the grandparents were going to be the baby sitters. Unfortunately our children have picked up a horrible bug, and bless the little fellas have been really unwell. So tonight I'm at home, while the Mrs raves it up. Thankfully though, I have a nice bottle of red which which I can enjoy. Would rather be giving it large with my work mates, but children come first, and thankfully they feel a lot better, and should be good for their Christmas party tomorrow.

Have a great evening all....

Lots of it about, hope they recover quickly  --  enjoy the Red

hi norfolk

 

 

and at 240 back again

 

these must be new cloaked lows

Quick, hide  --  it's the Romulans

 

The ECM is all over the place.  Is it me or is it not as good as it was?

Edited December 7, 2013 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[john pike]

hi norfolk

 

the charts in fi have been poor for a while

 

they are only good for trends and thats it

 

fax update and brief as i will sound like a broken record

 

tomorrow

 

a weak westerly flow

 

temps around 8-11 degrees all sun dependant

 

the very far south east (kent area) may see temps lower than these figures shown as lower uppers clear late in the day

 

hard to call re cloud but some sunny spells likely but do not be surprised to see cloudcover all day as well

 

no rain

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow night

 

a breezy west to north west flow

 

dry again

 

temps around 5-6 degrees

 

expect lower values where skies clear

 

fog possible overnight and possibly fairly dense south coastal regions

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

monday

 

a weak south westerly flow

 

again fog in the south of the region up to the thames area looks likely to be slow to clear

 

temps

 

a colder flow south of the river so temps tagged around 8 degrees

 

north of the river up to 11 degrees

 

cloud looks likely to effect all today

 

no rain again

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

monday night

 

almost the same as day

 

temps holding up tonight

 

around 5-7 degrees

 

looks dry but cloudy although there may be some drizzly rain about

 

fog more widespread tonight

 

------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tuesday

 

a weak south westerly flow

 

still under a continental feed here

 

temps

 

 

around 10 degrees

 

lower if cloudcover becomes dense and if fog is slow to clear

 

looks dry again

 

follow up the rest soon

[john pike]

wednesday

 

a weak southerly flow

 

but we keep the cooler flow

 

uppers

 

temps between 8-11 degrees

 

looks dry

 

watch out for fog again

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

thursday

 

a

a breezy south west flow

 

looks dry but there may be the odd rogue shower floating about

 

temps

looks like a cloudy day so 8-11 degrees

 

again all cloud related re tmps

 

not going any further until them lows are resolved

[Sussex Jules]

Ooh John looks like you could do some ramping from pub run precipitation charts deep in FI!

[john pike]

hi sussex

 

me ramp?

 

 

back soon

[john pike]

 

 

 

waiting ensembles for my ramp fix

[john pike]

ecm ensembles

 

average to slightly above to the 13th

 

then take your pick

 

breezy but nothing of note

 

although a fair spread on the 14th

 

rainfall

 

dry to the 12th-13th

 

then a small uptake

 

some wetter ensembles showing from the 14th but still well spread

 

overall take fi with a pinch of salt at present

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

God i sincerely hope we do not see a repeat of 5th December 2013 floods anytime soon again. Was absolutely horrifying. We now have some understanding of what it was like in 1953. 

Flood defences is a MUST from now. We should have invested in them a long time ago.

[john pike]

this posted on mod thread by ian f a little while ago

 

Indeed. Take the situation from midweek on, for example. Model variance we are seeing by just a few degrees longitude makes all manner of difference in the broader phasing between the cyclonic developments to west running up versus amplification / HP to east. Consequently the extent of frontal progression from west into UK by Thurs-Sat remains very uncertain; in turn, so does the longevity of chilled BL conditions to SE fed from the continent. Whilst somewhere such as Moray Firth could be at 13-14C by that stage, somewhere in Sussex might be struggling to 5-6C (especially if the more backed low-level flow decouples as likely, with attendant in-situ fog or fog/stratus fed across from France... the drier feed into Weds for example should offer a sunnier regime but in turn exacerbate potential fog issues). So, tricky forecast detail even for the next 6 days, let alone what confronts us beyond that.

 

 

 

goes with my thoughts as well

[john pike]

heres a ramp

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=7&mode=1&carte=0

 

this one will do

[john pike]

 

spread around the 13th on still

 

temps look on their way down as well on these

 

however its the pub run and fi is on the 13th

 

better these than the earlier runs

off to bed now

 

goodnight all

Edited December 8, 2013 by john pike

[Flaked Queen]

So mild tonight have got my fan on full pointing at my hot feet !