Chase Day 1 Discussion - MODERATE risk KS/NE

[nsrobins]

Took the liberty of starting discussion here for the first full chase day of Tour 1 - hope that's OK. 

10Z RAP and the driving surface features (WF.trough) look a tad further West to me. Both CAPE and SRH appear focussed just beneath the WF in CS NE. Cap drops away by 20Z. Interaction with OFBs from morning activity moving off east will be crucial but given the DL bulge and afternoon heating I'm going for initiation just over the KS/NE line around Fairbury, NE on the I136 between 20Z and 21Z.

Discrete cells moving NE at about 25kts should encounter richer soup around Beatrice to Lincoln and a few hours of tornadic potential seems likely.

You could wait further south into KS but the cap may take longer to erode here.Good luck.

PS: 200 mile trip to get close to position. Rise and shine! 

Edited May 11, 2014 by nsrobins

[Paul]

Cheers Neil, I'm sure the team will be up soon - could be a big day...

 

SPC have a moderate risk currently

 

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE SHOULD EXTEND FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND MUCH OF IOWA. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[chionomaniac]

I have gone for a little bit further south than you Neil - Concordia KS. The dew points and temps are a little higher, hopefully that wiil add a little bit more in the mix when the cap breaks late afternoon. I think that I will stick there for the time being looking at the latest  11Z RAP.

 

Edit latest 1300Z convective discussion has extended the moderate risk zone further south into KS and increased the 10% probability zone in KS and IO

 

Previous

 

 

New

 

Edited May 11, 2014 by chionomaniac

[nsrobins]

RAP 15Z and a change of tack I think. The potential continues to extend SW from the Nebraska border and targets in KS are now in play although activity will be increasingly high-based the further down you go - at least at first.Maybe somewhere on the I70 around Russell, KS might be a more affordable target than up into NE though I still think the greatest tornadic potential exists around my original target.

[chionomaniac]

I think Paul is heading to Beatrice NE. Latest update shrinks the more severe area (10% hatched tornado) away from KS now. Already upto 82 and DP 65 in Salina KS.

[dallas]

Hi Guy's is the stream up?

[chionomaniac]

MD issued for the teams target area with tornado watch likely.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0562.html

[nsrobins]

I think Paul is heading to Beatrice NE. Latest update shrinks the more severe area (10% hatched tornado) away from KS now. Already upto 82 and DP 65 in Salina KS.

Fair play - very close to my original target.The WF continues to shuffle north ahead of an OFB located along or just north of the NE/KS line.I see latest MD suggests inhibition decays in next hour or so in face of low 80s surface ts and high dps in said area.

 

Let's get ready to rumble! 

[dallas]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0563.html

 

Now a watch

 

Hang on might be different area

Edited May 11, 2014 by dallas

[chionomaniac]

Fair play - very close to my original target.The WF continues to shuffle north ahead of an OFB located along or just north of the NE/KS line.I see latest MD suggests inhibition decays in next hour or so in face of low 80s surface ts and high dps in said area.

 

Let's get ready to rumble! 

It's brewing nicely Neil. The last few years your target areas have been spot on so no doubt that your original target of Fairbury will be right in the mix!

[Nick L]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0563.html

 

Now a watch

 

Hang on might be different area

 

Yeah there's already a watch in Iowa/Illinois.

[chionomaniac]

Jo, I see that you are looking in - can you turn the streaming on please?

[chionomaniac]

Latest satellite of the area shows cirrus field (I think) - can't make out whether there is a cumulus field under that!

 

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ICT&itype=vis&size=small&endDate=20140511&endTime=-1&duration=0

[samadamsuk]

hey all

 

I don't have grl3 anymore, but I believe something my be going up now on the border just south of Franklin NE -

 

looks like an interesting night coming up!

[samadamsuk]

a sig-tor of 5, and a supercell composite of 20! - that looks pretty ripe...

[chionomaniac]

First signs of bits and pieces bubbling up now!

[chionomaniac]

Tornado watch issued now

 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0142.html

[samadamsuk]

I'll continue to mention other chasers and sites, but please bear in mind that I'd rather be following the NW live feed! - Brian Miner on chasertv has a good feed and is south of Lincoln right now - good agitated cu, but no towers as yet -

[Team Jo]

Streaming in on folks, sorry, we were eating lunch!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

[nsrobins]

Initiation down the DL a bit early for me. It's not the main play though as it's all about the WF and OFB interplay and far S NE is ripe and under the gun now and better helicity than further south.Could be a couple of strong tornados if cells stay south of the boundary.

[samadamsuk]

yep cell taking shape now coming off the border south of Grand Island - wont take long for this one to get serious I'd imagine

[matty40s]

The structures down near Dodge City are impressive, David Drummond has an excellent stream and view

[chionomaniac]

The cell the team are heading to south of Hastings is yellow boxed and already has nice inflow/ outflow reflectivity

[samadamsuk]

Philip Lueking is close on sever studios - his feeds not perfect tough. I've lost the NW feed for now -

[matty40s]

who is the UK2USA StormChasers - is that the Stuart from Leicestershires group??....

 

or is that our lot!!

Edited May 11, 2014 by matty40s