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Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st May 2014 onwards

Jane Louise
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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

Why is the estofex warning for the south east, yet the metoffice exclude the south east?

Guess its a fluid changing situation with differing ideas as to how it pans out.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Why is the estofex warning for the south east, yet the metoffice exclude the south east?

 

Estofex warning is for a risk of severe thunderstorms, but if you notice Estofex lightning zone is only around 15%, where as across the west up to 50%.

 

However, should storms develop in the Lvl 1 zone (or 'SLIGHT' zone on Nick F's forecast) they are more likely to turn severe.

 

I can only guess as I alluded to above, its that the impact of storms will be less in the SE, whereas the west has had considerably more rainfall of late...I'm guessing/hoping

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Noahjoe Apprentice

Noahjoe

Posted
  • Location: Bethnal Green, East London
  • Weather Preferences: Storms of any kind, Snow
  • Location: Bethnal Green, East London
Posted

Guess its a fluid changing situation with differing ideas as to how it pans out.

Ah okay, well at least that makes it more exciting :)
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Noahjoe Apprentice

Noahjoe

Posted
  • Location: Bethnal Green, East London
  • Weather Preferences: Storms of any kind, Snow
  • Location: Bethnal Green, East London
Posted

Estofex warning is for a risk of severe thunderstorms, but if you notice Estofex lightning zone is only around 15%, where as across the west up to 50%. However, should storms develop in the Lvl 1 zone (or 'SLIGHT' zone on Nick F's forecast) they are more likely to turn severe. I can only guess as I alluded to above, its that the impact of storms will be less in the SE, whereas the west has had considerably more rainfall of late...I'm guessing/hoping

That makes sense since the meto's job is more to warn people of flooding and estofex is specifically thunderstorms
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*Stormforce~beka* Maestro

*Stormforce~beka*

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
Posted

Coffee sounds good but not liking the bad view :)

Think Im going to hang tight for another 1/2hr and see what the SE of the cell does

Looks like you wont need to move far after all!! You sodsa pinched it :-D

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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

Ah okay, well at least that makes it more exciting :)

Indeed!

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Noahjoe Apprentice

Noahjoe

Posted
  • Location: Bethnal Green, East London
  • Weather Preferences: Storms of any kind, Snow
  • Location: Bethnal Green, East London
Posted

Is it just me or is part of that storm branching east?

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Rustynailer Aficionado

Rustynailer

Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
Posted (edited)

Nice storm here at the moment, just us on the IoW presently, hope you all get to share it.

Looks like worse (lol better) still to come on radar.

Lovely long echoing rumbles, nice and dramatic.

almost continuous rumbles, loud too...

Edited by Rustynailer
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suffolkboy_ Aficionado

suffolkboy_

Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
Posted

Nice storm here at the moment, just us on the IoW presently, hope you all get to share it.

Looks like worse (lol better) still to come on radar.

Lovely long echoing rumbles, nice and dramatic.

almost continuous rumbles, loud too...

 

You're in a prime spot! Should all go crazy for you in the next 20 minutes/half an hour. Looking at the radar returns I'm guessing that may be a hail core, although the Netweather Precip. Type feature doesn't show it as such.

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

Surely someone from the met office had a little look at the radar before issuing their warning? Then you would at least play safe and extend it to the east of the IOW.

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BrickFielder Rising Star

BrickFielder

Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
Posted

  Estofex mention the nose of a low level jet and low topped supercells which makes me think about the Birmingham Tornado for eastern France. Temperatures that day were a lot higher so I dont think the comparison is apt for today across the UK, but it is is interesting that they mention it might reach the south east in the evening.  Looking at the NMM model I can see suggestions of low level wind convergence and this seems to be the area that NMM is keen to develop convective precipitation.  Lightning Wizard Charts for the level of free convection suggest convection will only occur across the very south of the UK until late in the afternoon. Looking at Forecast SkewT's I think this represents a CAP between 850hpa to 700hpa heights which will erode from the south. Differences in 700hpa vertical velocity seem to confirm this.  Wind shear both in terms of speed and directional shear is poor in the west and slightly better in the east (Suggesting supercells and tornadoes are not on the cards). Any significant pulse storm could have a right leaning inclination by way of differences in the wind shear on the right and left flanks. Which makes me wonder about storm splitting potential, but thats a complicated process and tends to have more to do with internal storm dynamics (Outflow boundarys and the like).  Forecast SkewT's for Birmingham mid day suggest some wind shear in the boundary layer, but it tends to disappear later on.  Over all I am not convinced by the model output. Timings for different components dont really come together that well except in the south and conditions according to the models should favour the East. Having looked at the Satelite pictures I have come to the conclusion we are better of looking at the Radar and satelite than the models now.

 

Am currently watching the developing storms over north east France.

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

In all honesty, I thought the rain might have been heavier, nothing special this time around, looks like I found the the gap. :laugh:

post-15177-0-14220000-1400756479_thumb.j

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

Lots of cells now developing near the Taunton, Cardiff and Bristol area!

Distant thunder heard in Cardiff from the cell to the east of me!

 

Edited by Panayiotis
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pip22 Accomplished

pip22

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
Posted

Looks like the cell is developing in the west of Southampton: http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

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Supercell 89 Apprentice

Supercell 89

Posted
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Thundery or Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire
Posted

Interesting echo shapes from those showers/storms in the channel, Im sure the one over IOW is splitting away

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Rustynailer Aficionado

Rustynailer

Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
Posted

You're in a prime spot! Should all go crazy for you in the next 20 minutes/half an hour. Looking at the radar returns I'm guessing that may be a hail core, although the Netweather Precip. Type feature doesn't show it as such.

You are right about crazy, lightning is crazy and constant, yippeeeee, off now just in case.....

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paul m Aficionado

paul m

Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
Posted

Right time to stick the strike alert on!

You look in a prime location

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