[Blog] Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 5

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This is the 5th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015.

The previous blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.

IMO a definite trend is starting to emerge, which I will outline later, of course whether or not this is accurate, time will tell.

This forecast will be split into 2 main sources

1. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA]

The 6-10 day chart at this poll covers the immediate run up to the festival while the 8-14 day charts covers the festival period itself.

6-10 day

8-14 day

Both sets of charts are very positive with High Pressure over the UK in both cases, becoming dominant in the 8-14 day range which covers 20-26 June.

At this stage today's charts have not been published.

2. Ensemble Forecasts

GFS Pressure Ensembles

11 June

12 June

13 June

The pressure charts have a pattern to increase pressure over South Western parts of the UK, rising to an average of close to 1030mb by around the 17th June, It is then set to fall back to around 1020mb by the 22nd June. For the festival itself, the ensemble average pressure is just below, however with some runs, including the operational ones, turning things unsettled a bit.

GFS Rainfall Ensembles

11 June

12 June

13 June

The General pattern is for a mostly dry spell of weather coming up, however there are some spikes in the ensembles indicaiong some moderate rainfall, however most runs are still dry.

GFS Temperature Ensembles

11 June

12 June

13 June

Temps are forecast to be above average with 850hpa temps just below +10c.

Summary

Good

If the Glastonbury festival was a week earlier, there would be good confidence in a dry settled festival.

There is still decent confidence of a mostly settled festival, with the majority of ensembles keeping thing mostly dry. with a dry run-up to the festival meaning helping dealing with any rainfall that does fall.

Bad

The one concern is that the settled weather ends sooner than expected, and some ensembles do show it turning unsettled for the festival.

Overall

Despite the concerns above, the current trend remains for the festival weather to be more settled, drier and warmer than average for the time of year. As such I give this festival a 3/10 rating at this time (0dustbowl, 10mudbath)

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