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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Another off season South Pacific tropical cyclone has formed, northeast of Fiji. 01P has winds of 35kts. The convective pattern has already started to deteriorate from when the system was upgraded. Moderate to strong northerly shear is only being partially offset by strong poleward outflow. Unless the decreased convection re-invigourates soon, 01P will degenerate into a remnant low. JTWC do forecast some modest intensification as poleward outflow is expected to maintain some convection, though whether this happens or not is uncertain. To the south, cooler waters and even stronger shear will bring about 01P's demise in a couple of days anyway if it doesn't happen sooner.

post-1820-0-51811300-1438600694_thumb.gi

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

01P degenerated into a remnant low last night as convection continued to wane. However, convection has made a bit of a comeback today, prompting JTWC to assess the remnants as having a MEDIUM chance of reforming into a TC. Any comeback is expected to be short lived however.

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