central pacific Hurricane Loke

[Somerset Squall]

Another tropical depression has formed in the Central Pacific, just east of the dateline (180°), the boundary between the Central and Western Pacific. 04C has winds of 30kts. The depression is moving slowly to the north, and is forecast to move slowly in this general direction over the coming days. The official track forecast has 04C moving northwestward, moving it into the Western Pacific, then a northeasterly track back into the Central Pacific. Slow strengthening is forecast.

[Somerset Squall]

04C has strengthened to 40kts, and has been named Loke. Loke has persistant, deep convection over the LLCC, and good banding features. Shear is low and waters warm, so further strengthening appears likely.the latest track has shifted a little east overall, which, if this track verfies, keeps Loke in the Central Pacific through it's lifetime... just.

[Somerset Squall]

Loke is the 5th named storm of the Central Pacific season. This is a record. The most named storms in a single season before this was 4, in 1982. And we are nowhere near the end of the season yet!

[Somerset Squall]

Loke has had problems with dry air entrainment. The dry air did a number on Loke yesterday, causing a dramatic loss of convection, causing Loke to weaken back to a tropical depression. The system has since regained tropical storm status with winds of 35kts. Shear is low and waters warm, so the only inhibitor to strengthening is the continued presence of dry air. CPHC expect strengthening to be capped to 55kts as a result.

Loke is expected to meander northwards near the dateline over the coming days. By day 4/5, Loke is expected to be drawn northwestwards into the circulation of what will then be the extratropical remnant of former Super Typhoon Atsani which will be passing northeast to Loke's north.

[Somerset Squall]

Loke strengthened to 50kts yesterday, and has since become a 65kt hurricane as it moves northeastwards. It appears that the dry air previously affecting the system is no longer an issue. Loke has probably peaked, as shear is set to increase in a day or so as the hurricane gets dragged towards the very large circulation of Ex-Atsani.

[Somerset Squall]

Loke is losing tropical characteristics. Convection has become increasingly shallow and the circulation is broadening in response to cooler waters and increased shear. Winds are down to 50kts. Loke is swinging to the northwest around an upper level low to the west. This motion will entrain Loke into the large circulation of Ex Super Typhoon Atsani. After merging, the resultant storm will continue northeastwards over the North Pacific.

[Somerset Squall]

Loke has become extratropical and is being absorbed into the extratropical remnant of former Super Typhoon Atsani.