western pacific Typhoon Krovanh

[Somerset Squall]

Another tropical depression has formed, this time back out in the east of the basin, well northeast of Guam. 20W has winds of 25kts currently and has a decent amount of convection over the LLCC but little banding. Moderate shear is currently affecting 20W, but this is forecast to ease. Along with warm water and improving outflow, this should allow 20W to intensify in the longer term, perhaps rapidly. JTWC forecast a peak of 105kts before 20W runs into cooler water and increased shear by day 5.

A northwesterly track is expected at first, followed by a turn to the north then northeast as 20W rounds the western periphery of a ridge to the north.

[Somerset Squall]

20W has undergone rapid intensification to 60kts, a high end tropical storm. Krovanh will soon be a typhoon as an eye feature is becoming evident and the system is very well organised with curved banding features wrapping into the central dense overcast. Further rapid strengthening is expected as shear is low, waters warm and outflow excellent in all quadrants. JTWC expect Krovanh to peak at cat 4 intensity with winds of 115kts.

[Somerset Squall]

Krovanh has continued to strengthen and is now an 80kt cat 1 typhoon. The eye is becoming better defined. Further strengthening is expected over the next 36hrs before shear rises and waters cool along track. Extratropical transition is then expected to begin shortly thereafter as Krovanh recurves to the northeast.

[Somerset Squall]

Krovanh is now a cat 3 with winds of 105kts. Krovanh has about another 12hrs to strengthen before shear increases.

[Somerset Squall]

Krovanh's peak was 105kts. The typhoon has since weakened to a tropical storm with winds of 60kts. Shear and cooling sea temps will continue the weakening trend, and then cause Krovanh to become extratropical.

[Somerset Squall]

Krovanh's extratropical transition is well underway. JTWC have issued their last advisory.