Invest 95L

[mezzacyclone]

Hot on the heels of the short but sweet Danielle comes a disturbance over the east coast of quintana roo/yucatan Mexico, just north of Belize.

some models going with another TS in 48hrs time? But its very similar to 94l in many ways although an upper level low is clearing away NW-wards & shear dosnt look as strong as it did in the early stages of the previous but little sea track over the BOC may just see this near TD?

Recon may investigate once this leaves the yucatan pen but somethings definitely aiding development of the waves off the itcz in the area currently!

 

[summer blizzard]

Christ, it's not even July. Fodder storms but its only a matter of time before one of these unusually aggressive waves is ready as far west as the Antilles.

[mezzacyclone]

Yep, overzealousness with the models it appeared,

Recon was cancelled as this is going to amount to no more than heavy rain for mexico, south of where TS Danielle made landfall,

interest or fallacy in the gfs hinting on a GOM "earl" ts or low-end 'cane at the end of the 1st week of July?

record low shear for June in the area is the simple basic & obvious longevity of plain waves making it thru & developing, if only to a minimum, but something tells me a big CV will overshadow any EPAC ferocity as we reach late august into Sep but could we see anything take advantage of the current favorable west caribbean/ yucatan plateau conditions? as its clear EN's played its swansong & we are either at least neutral or headed into LN?