autumn Autumn 2016

[cheese]

Also don't forget to take a stroll around Hyde Park and the West End.. London, for all its faults, is a fantastic city and it looks and feels like the centre of the world when the sun is shining. Just wish they'd get air con on the Underground!!!

Edited September 9, 2016 by cheese

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, cheese said:

Also don't forget to take a stroll around Hyde Park and the West End.. London, for all its faults, is a fantastic city and it looks and feels like the centre of the world when the sun is shining. Just wish they'd get air con on the Underground!!!

Some of the lines do now. Still can't stand the place though, whatever the weather.

[cheese]

Sitting on a bus during hot weather isn't much fun either.. opening the windows only provides a bit of relief. Doesn't help when it's packed full and people are standing and your head is inside someone's armpit. 

[iapennell]

2 hours ago, iapennell said:

There is an interesting article in The Times today about the Quasi Biennial Oscillation being disrupted. If you have a Times subscription search for "Freak Winds of Change mean Mild, Wet and Stormy" and (hopefully) you should find this article. Scientists have discovered that the QBO has been disrupted so that it is not going to revert to its Easterly Phase but remain Westerly for this coming season. If this is so, we can forget about dry and sunny weather persisting through October and it looks increasingly as if mild southerly/westerly winds will hold sway over Britain so we can forget about air-frosts for a while yet!

My apologies, the title of the said-article is "Weird winds of change mean mild, wet and stormy". This is in today's (9th Sept) issue of The Times and it is on page 11.

[cheese]

Lol, wtf?

 

It might be hot on Tuesday but I definitely don't expect it to be that hot. Good grief! 

[Summer Sun]

6 hours ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

 

 

Just after that tweet Matt posted this

 

[DAVID SNOW]

32 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Hottest I've experienced in London is about 24c low 30's will be a new experience for sure!

Please do try the underground though in hot weather, it will be an experience you will not forget! 40+ if you are 'lucky'.

Not wanting to go too far off topic, but for many, to work in London, or travel through it during hot weather, is not something that is looked forward to.

Back on topic, it does look like next week will be the last of 'the plumes' (imo)  and the rest of September will settle down to something more average.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

now, I'm not a believer in FI charts unless it's showing zonal, but for fun can we do it again? crap weekend 17th-18th then this?

[Frost HoIIow]

Leaves are turning in Yakutsk Russia. A beautiful picture in more ways than one.

 

[Spikecollie]

54 minutes ago, cheese said:

Sitting on a bus during hot weather isn't much fun either.. opening the windows only provides a bit of relief. Doesn't help when it's packed full and people are standing and your head is inside someone's armpit. 

I've had lot of 30+ days here in Limousin commuting to work by bus and train - you get to realise that people SMELL!!!

[Nick L]

11 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

I've had lot of 30+ days here in Limousin commuting to work by bus and train - you get to realise that people SMELL!!!

A basic level of personal hygiene should be required by law during hot weather 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

I've had lot of 30+ days here in Limousin commuting to work by bus and train - you get to realise that people SMELL!!!

wish I had your elevation! if I did I'd be thinking stuff summer, bring on the northerlies! but as I haven't I think the total opposite, keep the summer stuff the northerlies

[cheese]

29 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

wish I had your elevation! if I did I'd be thinking stuff summer, bring on the northerlies! but as I haven't I think the total opposite, keep the summer stuff the northerlies

Yeah but she is much further south.. not sure how common snow is in that region of France.

[cheese]

43 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

I've had lot of 30+ days here in Limousin commuting to work by bus and train - you get to realise that people SMELL!!!

Tell me about it. They should give out free antiperspirant on public transport!

[Walsall Wood Snow]

9 hours ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

 

Iapennell though has stated in his Autumn prediction thread, that because it's suspected that the usual QBO phase will remain westerly instead of switching to its easterly phase that he's expecting from mid October right through November to be mild, wet and windy with little to no frost. He also states that this indicates a high chance that Winter 2016/17 will also be mild, wet and windy. I know it's only early September and that this isn't a definitive forecast as such, but it has been stated that his Autumn and Winter forecasts are usually pretty close to the mark (more so than his Summer forecasts anyway) and he is certainly painting a very gloomy picture for those of us wishing for a more seasonal Autumn and Winter this year into next (which he claims to want also, but he can only report things as he sees them). So there is something of a conflict between his thoughts and what some of the longer range forecasts are starting alto toy with. It does make me worry though when a long range forecaster with a fair bit of success under his belt starts making predictions which are the opposite of what I'm hoping for. Surely a cold snowy Winter after three appalling ones isn't too much to ask, though the weather will do what the weather will do I suppose and it doesn't care what I want. I hope he's wrong though for once (I'm sure he does as well to a degree).

Edited September 9, 2016 by Walsall Wood Snow

[weirpig]

Who knows what will happen even to forecast a few weeks in advance is a nightmare . Look at met checks monthly forecasts they have a archive from around April to now  and if you look their successful predictions arnt the best     

Weather will do what it does 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

9 hours ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

 

In response to weirpig:

Of course long range forecasts should be taken with a pinch of salt. However some are better at it than others. Also it has been said that Winter is an easier month to predict for than Summer for some reason. Also Iapennell has got a pretty good success rate with Autumn and Winter forecasts. He also seems to make his predictions with an air of confidence (best to I suppose as it makes them sound more believable) as though what he thinks is practically guaranteed to happen. Such as his assertion that this Autumn will be pretty much frost free.

 

[Frost HoIIow]

3 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

In response to weirpig:

Of course long range forecasts should be taken with a pinch of salt. However some are better at it than others. Also it has been said that Winter is an easier month to predict for than Summer for some reason. Also Iapennell has got a pretty good success rate with Autumn and Winter forecasts. He also seems to make his predictions with an air of confidence (best to I suppose as it makes them sound more believable) as though what he thinks is practically guaranteed to happen. Such as his assertion that this Autumn will be pretty much frost free.

 

I think his forecasts are fairly accurate, so I find them interesting. However I would be very surprised if I don't record at the very least one air frost between now and 30th November. Even during the wettest Autumn on record in year 2000 I recorded 3 air frosts in the November sandwiched in between Atlantic pressure systems. However a lot of places didn't record an air frost in that entire Autumn so maybe Ian is going for a similar disturbed one like 2000. Especially October and November with very little respite between storms.

[weirpig]

21 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

In response to weirpig:

Of course long range forecasts should be taken with a pinch of salt. However some are better at it than others. Also it has been said that Winter is an easier month to predict for than Summer for some reason. Also Iapennell has got a pretty good success rate with Autumn and Winter forecasts. He also seems to make his predictions with an air of confidence (best to I suppose as it makes them sound more believable) as though what he thinks is practically guaranteed to happen. Such as his assertion that this Autumn will be pretty much frost free.

 

Oh well if it is the case I'm used to being blown down nether ton high street and even in the rain I'm sure pleck could look quite nice:)

[Gael_Force]

I take my hat off to anyone who takes the time and trouble to do a detailed seasonal forecast but the real test, for me, is one that is successful in going against climatology and it coming off..... currently the models and the experts cannot get that right. Admittedly there are not many occasions to test the theory but the new Glosea model claims to have a chance of doing so up to 60% of the time. We'll see in November if that shows any indication for this winter.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

25 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I think his forecasts are fairly accurate, so I find them interesting. However I would be very surprised if I don't record at the very least one air frost between now and 30th November. Even during the wettest Autumn on record in year 2000 I recorded 3 air frosts in the November sandwiched in between Atlantic pressure systems. However a lot of places didn't record an air frost in that entire Autumn so maybe Ian is going for a similar disturbed one like 2000. Especially October and November with very little respite between storms.

Interesting how you mention Autumn 2000. I can't say I remember it all that well, but I do somewhat remember Winter 2000/01. It was a fairly coolish Winter from what I remember and was certainly colder than the three Winters that preceded it. There was quite a cold and snowy period in late December with snowfall here on the evening of the 27th anyway which left the best snow cover here (at the time) since Nov 96 I think and produced some pretty cold minimas for two or three nights afterwards with hoar frost and despite being post Christmas Day felt very Christmasy with everybody still having their decorations up. Though most of the month before then had been quite mild and wet I think. March in 2001 was also quite cold with frosty nights and a snow day on the 21st. I'd take that Winter over the last three we've had any day.

Edited September 9, 2016 by Walsall Wood Snow

[Frost HoIIow]

22 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Interesting how you mention Autumn 2000. I can't say I remember it all that well, but I do somewhat remember Winter 2000/01. It was a fairly coolish Winter from what I remember and was certainly colder than the three Winters that preceded it. There was quite a cold and snowy period in late December with snowfall here on the evening of the 27th anyway which left the best snow cover here (at the time) since Nov 96 I think and produced some pretty cold minimas for two or three nights afterwards with hoar frost and despite being post Christmas Day felt very Christmasy with everybody still having their decorations up. Though most of the month before then had been quite mild and wet I think. March in 2001 was also quite cold with frosty nights and a snow day on the 21st. I'd take that Winter over the last three we've had any day.

Yes that Winter was quite good considering it was part of the milder phase of Winters (1997-2008).

Got down to -13C on the 30th, it was the coldest temps for almost exactly 5 years when we got to -15C here during the December 1995 freeze, that was when Altnaharra recorded the joint coldest ever temp in the UK at -27.2C.

Just a shame Winter 2000-2001 was only a blip in a line of mostly milder Winters.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

18 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I take my hat off to anyone who takes the time and trouble to do a detailed seasonal forecast but the real test, for me, is one that is successful in going against climatology and it coming off..... currently the models and the experts cannot get that right. Admittedly there are not many occasions to test the theory but the new Glosea model claims to have a chance of doing so up to 60% of the time. We'll see in November if that shows any indication for this winter.

A good point. Of course you get those that predict a cold Winter every year and they're best ignored. But it's somebody who can predict one who wouldn't normally when they're about to actually happen which is the real test of a good long range forecaster. But of course these situations are harder to spot and it must take alot of skill to do so. On the other hand I doubt there's anyone who can be right every time.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

22 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Yes that Winter was quite good considering it was part of the milder phase of Winters (1997-2008).

Got down to -13C on the 30th, it was the coldest temps for almost exactly 5 years when we got to -15C here during the December 1995 freeze, that was when Altnaharra recorded the joint coldest ever temp in the UK at -27.2C.

Just a shame Winter 2000-2001 was only a blip in a line of mostly milder Winters.

Although the following Winter of 2001/02 was a mild Winter overall we had a similar spell in late December to the previous year here. It snowed then on the evening of the 29th followed by fine weather and 2 or 3 sub zero nights again with hoar frost and the canal froze over with ice thick enough to walk on (not ever recommended of course). This lasted to New Year's Day or the 2nd of January I think and again felt festive and magical. The rest of the Winter though was pants.  Although at the time I was content with it and have since been spoiled by the Winters of 2008/09, 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2012/13. I remember in December 2002 hoping for a  third year snowfall followed by a few days cold spell only to be disappointed.

Edited September 9, 2016 by Walsall Wood Snow

[Frost HoIIow]

1 hour ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Although the following Winter of 2001/02 was a mild Winter overall we had a similar spell in late December to the previous year here. It snowed then on the evening of the 29th followed by fine weather and 2 or 3 sub zero nights again with hoar frost and the canal froze over with ice thick enough to walk on (not ever recommended of course). This lasted to New Year's Day or the 2nd of January I think and again felt festive and magical. The rest of the Winter though was pants.  Although at the time I was content with it and have since been spoiled by the Winters of 2008/09, 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2012/13. I remember in December 2002 hoping for a  third year snowfall followed by a few days cold spell only to be disappointed.

Yes December 2001 was quite anticyclonic - had a lot of dry weather with frosty mornings and sunny days, I think there was some freezing fog that lingered as well but most days ended up maxing around 5 to 8C so nothing that bad despite cold mornings. We also had snow cover here late December 2001 but temps were not as harsh as the previous December and the snow depth wasn't as heavy either.

Got down to -8C on New Years eve 2001 as an absolute low that month and it was the coldest temp of that whole Winter with Jan & Feb being mostly mild unsettled and pretty much snow free, I generally record -7C or -8C during the milder Winters here when there's been a break from the Atlantic...even during last Winter I had a low of -7C in late Feb...when it get's to -10C and below you know there's been a very decent cold spell. Or in January 1987's case when temp fails to get above -9C during the daytime!  Most people didn't have a proper Stevenson screen weather station back then - from first thing in the morning up until going to bed when I was working from home I used to go out every 30 mins & check the temperature on a sheltered mercury thermometer then write the temp down on a notepad. Those were the days.

These days we have the luxury of the temp being beamed to us electronically without us having to leave the house. But I used to enjoy manually checking the temp in all sorts of wild conditions! bitter cold, snow, heatwaves, drought, torrential driving rain, gales, hail. My old thermometer experienced it all, if only it could talk it would probably be cursing me.

Edited September 10, 2016 by Frost HoIIow