Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

Dose that look thundery skys over here in warminster 

[weatherobsuk]

Personally I rely on the forecast TAF outputs than from the Beeb, pretty much going for a midlands-north thundery outbreak overnight with hail.

http://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/united-kingdom-ireland.php?icao=EGCC

[StormChaseUK]

Wind is starting to drop which is a good sign, and mid level cloud looks more constructive.

Edited July 19, 2016 by StormChaseUK
spelling

[Bolt from the Blue]

Looking West

[NUT]

Got more cloud developing here. Not sure of the sympotics or whatever but if we do get a storm here it might be nasty (not too often up here that you have days where you actually sweating a lot)

[A.J]

6 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Triple point is (as you may know) the wave crest on the polar front or the northernmost position of tropical air on the surface. Right now there are weak sea breeze fronts pushing the tropical air east across Ireland and a cold front in central Biscay. The triple point is weakly defined at present, but by late overnight when tropical air is lifted off the surface in Ireland, a developing active triple point will be found west of Brittany heading towards landfall about Plymouth except that rapid destabilization late tonight may reset it closer to Portland for landfall. The feature will be much better defined by about 0600-0800h and will be moving in sync with the developing low pressure centre northeast across Britain. I think the cap will hold in regions east of a Lancs to east Wilts-Hamps line overnight but this development will rapidly erode the cap tomorrow. So the cap is only going to prevent some development tonight and may become a non-factor tomorrow, in any case the region it could apply to will be swept out east of the forecast region by the changing upper air pattern. There's going to be a "screw zone" probably, my guess as to where is west Midlands to Oxford. 

blimey, the one thing I love about netweather, I genuinely learn something new every day.....thanks Roger 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

30 minutes ago, Nick L said:

It seems that BBC regional forecasters presenters are mostly clueless nationwide.

shef is clueless, never ever watch local weather now

[Frosty hollows]

What's a screw zone?

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

I  am sorry i have autism my dad tell I have clum down if there any thunderstorms weather and I get to eixcted and my dad said to me tom things want it to thunder all the time 

[P-M]

Just now, Frosty hollows said:

What's a screw zone?

The area around the moistened Camborne?

[P-M]

1 minute ago, Tom dewey likes thunder said:

I  am sorry i have autism my dad tell I have clum down if there any thunderstorms weather and I get to eixcted and my dad said to me tom things want it to thunder all the time 

Hey don't apologise - you're welcome to get excited mate.  Here's hoping you get some thunder later!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

10 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Triple point is (as you may know) the wave crest on the polar front or the northernmost position of tropical air on the surface. Right now there are weak sea breeze fronts pushing the tropical air east across Ireland and a cold front in central Biscay. The triple point is weakly defined at present, but by late overnight when tropical air is lifted off the surface in Ireland, a developing active triple point will be found west of Brittany heading towards landfall about Plymouth except that rapid destabilization late tonight may reset it closer to Portland for landfall. The feature will be much better defined by about 0600-0800h and will be moving in sync with the developing low pressure centre northeast across Britain. I think the cap will hold in regions east of a Lancs to east Wilts-Hamps line overnight but this development will rapidly erode the cap tomorrow. So the cap is only going to prevent some development tonight and may become a non-factor tomorrow, in any case the region it could apply to will be swept out east of the forecast region by the changing upper air pattern. There's going to be a "screw zone" probably, my guess as to where is west Midlands to Oxford. 

Screw zone?! Wow there is a LOT I still don't know about storms...

[MartinD]

13 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Triple point is (as you may know) the wave crest on the polar front or the northernmost position of tropical air on the surface. Right now there are weak sea breeze fronts pushing the tropical air east across Ireland and a cold front in central Biscay. The triple point is weakly defined at present, but by late overnight when tropical air is lifted off the surface in Ireland, a developing active triple point will be found west of Brittany heading towards landfall about Plymouth except that rapid destabilization late tonight may reset it closer to Portland for landfall. The feature will be much better defined by about 0600-0800h and will be moving in sync with the developing low pressure centre northeast across Britain. I think the cap will hold in regions east of a Lancs to east Wilts-Hamps line overnight but this development will rapidly erode the cap tomorrow. So the cap is only going to prevent some development tonight and may become a non-factor tomorrow, in any case the region it could apply to will be swept out east of the forecast region by the changing upper air pattern. There's going to be a "screw zone" probably, my guess as to where is west Midlands to Oxford. 

Hi Roger, thank you for your amazing knowledge and learning new things every day and i'm hopeful to see something tomorrow when i leave Worcester, West Midlands at 8am and drive to Norwich then head back again in the early afternoon. I was just wondering what a "screw zone" is..... Thank you again for your forecasts.

[A.J]

2 minutes ago, Tom dewey likes thunder said:

I  am sorry i have autism my dad tell I have clum down if there any thunderstorms weather and I get to eixcted and my dad said to me tom things want it to thunder all the time 

no problems Tom .......for tonight, the chances for Warminster are relatively slim, although Roger J Smith's post was interesting!

1 minute ago, P-M said:

The area around the moistened Camborne?

matron! 

[P-M]

Just now, ajpoolshark said:

no problems Tom .......for tonight, the chances for Warminster are relatively slim, although Roger J Smith's post was interesting!

matron! 

haha sorry AJ couldn't resist!  It's this heat man

[davehsug]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Screw zone?! Wow there is a LOT I still don't know about storms...

I would caution against googling it

[Joseph Hudson]

i'm giving up on Portsmouth tonight. why do never get anything

[MartinD]

3 minutes ago, davehsug said:

I would caution against googling it

Yep did the Google thing myself and nope.... it's not that lol

So what is a "screw zone"  

[Guest]

Just now, Joseph Hudson said:

i'm giving up on Portsmouth tonight. why do never get anything

If it is any consolation, most of us will miss out. We're in it for the ride, the thrill of the chase and the excitement and jealousy we feel when someone else scores a direct hit (of course we're happy for them though

Don't give up!

[Nouska]

5 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

no problems Tom .......for tonight, the chances for Warminster are relatively slim, although Roger J Smith's post was interesting!

matron! 

The WAFC CB charts kind of back up Roger's thoughts.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/wafc/2016/07/19/12/wafc_hnat_cb-extent_base_top.html

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

where did William go? Did someone scare him off? :-(

[A.J]

3 minutes ago, davehsug said:

I would caution against googling it

I did.....found out some very interesting things about 'updrafts' 'downdrafts' 'absolute humidity' and 'localised convergence' not to mention earth shattering bangs ....

moving swiftly on, looking very stormy for some tonight! 

[Joseph Hudson]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

If it is any consolation, most of us will miss out. We're in it for the ride, the thrill of the chase and the excitement and jealousy we feel when someone else scores a direct hit (of course we're happy for them though

Don't give up!

I would go out chasing but don't think my powers of persuasion are good to make my mum or dad go out. that and I have no idea where best place for t-storms is tonight

 

Edited July 19, 2016 by Joseph Hudson

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Joseph Hudson said:

I would go out chasing but don't think my powers of persuasion are good to make my mum or dad go out. that and I have no idea where best place for t-storms is tonigh

 t

lol I only meant virtual chasing, although I feel some will go out chasing. I don't count myself in the bracket when all I intend on doing is finding a nearby viewpoint should things kick-off nearby.

It's a nowcast event. The forecasts are all informative and useful to some extent, but now we watch and wait with baited breath to see what the weather Gods have in store... 

[P-M]

Looks like sferics are kicking off to the west of Glasgow off the coast...