Predictions for 2017?

[B87]

38 minutes ago, reef said:

That would be a year with the warmest spring, summer (by some way) and Autumn on record pretty much. It would be up there with the driest years on record too.

The annual CET wouldn't be far off 12C. Fortunately we're a few decades from that I would say!

Those stats are based on my area, not UK-wide!  The summer and autumn are warmer than average.  Spring is average. My annual mean is 11.4c.

The rainfall from Mar-Dec totals 445 mm.  Add the 60mm from Jan, and assume Feb gets 30mm, and you end up with 535mm - a close to average annual rainfall total.

Sun-wise, Jan recorded 65 hrs here, Feb has seen 31 hrs so far (but lets assume we see none for the rest of the month).  Adding the 96 hrs to my Mar-Dec estimate, we get 1746 hrs.  That's sunnier than average, but not by much (~100 hrs over the entire year).

Edited February 20, 2017 by B87

[Weather-history]

On 18 December 2016 at 09:28, Weather-history said:

 

February: coldest month of winter containing the most snowfalls and most frosts. My hunch a really cold February is around the corner within the next three years.

 

Disappointed, looked like a possibility in the early part of the month but it went pear-shaped quickly. Means another crank up on the statistically stretched February with a large -ve anomaly. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Disappointed, looked like a possibility in the early part of the month but it went pear-shaped quickly. Means another crank up on the statistically stretched February with a large -ve anomaly. 

My feb prediction, lack of snow, zonal fest, flooding, wet and windy, milder than average, some of it right, still been rainy at times here though

[Frank Trough]

2002 had a pretty poor summer (very wet july), five years later 2007 had a very wet summer, five years after that came 2012. Five years later....2017?

I reckon a cold wet spring followed by a very wet summer. Misery will abound.

 

I can't tell you how much science has gone into that "forecast".

[Weather-history]

On 18/12/2016 at 09:28, Weather-history said:

March: Cool, some frost and snow but one or two short warm spells as well.

-

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

I went for dominated by the Atlantic, and above average temps, 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

wouldn't be surprised if next above avg month, not until Nov

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

On ‎21‎/‎02‎/‎2017 at 09:41, Certain kind of fool said:

2002 had a pretty poor summer (very wet july), five years later 2007 had a very wet summer, five years after that came 2012. Five years later....2017?

I reckon a cold wet spring followed by a very wet summer. Misery will abound.

 

I can't tell you how much science has gone into that "forecast".

Lots of people seem to be keen on counting back in Fives lately..  Lets count back in Elevens instead

[GRHinPorts]

On 23 December 2016 at 18:33, Philipsfd said:

I'll go for a good mixture of 1997 and 2007...

January: Very cold but settled and sunny start, then turning and remaining mild and wet after the first week or so, with a gale-storm towards the end of the month.

February: Turning colder at the start of the month again, but remaining unsettled with heavy snow over a couple of days, the heaviest falls since January 2010 and similar to the February 2007 and 2009 snowfalls. Very mild, dry and dull second half of the month.

March: Dry, dull and warm conditions continue for the first couple of weeks, the sun then breaks to give an incredibly sunny third week before a return to cloudier weather for the final week. Dry and mild throughout. (Again similar to 2007 and 2009).

April: An intense warm front from the south continues the theme of dry weather and brings with it an incredible two-week heatwave over the middle two weeks, coinciding with Easter. Unbroken sunshine and record-smashing temperatures, the average breaking 11 degrees and a high of 32 degrees being recorded in London. Turning cooler but remaining dry and sunny in the last week. Puts 2007 and 2011 in the shade.

May: A dry, warm and sunny first week signals the end of the settled weather as Atlantic fronts break the high from then on. Very wet and dull for the remainder of the month.

June: A brief high in the first week bridges the Atlantic systems, making for a very warm and dry first week. Turning increasingly humid with thunderstorms preceding a very wet remainder of the month. Not quite as wet as 97 and 07 but in a similar region. Temperatures around average.

July: Wet, cloudy and cool with Atlantic weather dominating. A warm front in the final few days brings a hot and dry end of the month and a change in the theme of the summer.

August: The warm weather continues at the start of the month with the hottest temperature of the summer being recoded on the 5th (30.5 C), but not breaking the April high.. Convections then begin to dominate after the hot first week, making for a very humid, warm, wet and thundery remainder.

September: Settling down, fairly close to average temperatures and fairly dry throughout. Reasonably sunny.

October: Very much a continuation from September; fairly dry and mild, but with some night frosts in the final week. Average sunshine.

November: Dry, mild and fairly dull (like 2007)

December: Another mild one, but turning wetter in the first two weeks. A cooler and very foggy third week (aka 2006) before another Christmas Eve gale-storm brings about a very wild and damp Christmas period, with a big thunderstorm on New Years Eve to see in the new year.

 

 

Something like this has been close to how I feel 2017 is going to pan out for quite some while based purely on the 1997 & 2007 factor. (Ok we all know the last number in the year has no effect in determining the weather....and yet...rinse and repeat of those earlier two years seems so likely? why is that?).

Anyway the irony is you posted this 2 days before Christmas and so far the script has followed your prediction with only minor variations. 

I look forward to this April putting 2007 and 2011 in the shade and can't quite believe it will do that but I'm pretty certain like you that from mid May the Atlantic will turn up and hang around until late July.

Edited April 7, 2017 by GRHinPorts

[Weather-history]

On 23 December 2016 at 18:33, Philipsfd said:

 

April:  a high of 32 degrees being recorded in London. 

 

 

That sort of temperature would be exceptional at the end of May. Very, very, very unlikely.

[Weather-history]

On 18 December 2016 at 09:28, Weather-history said:

 

April:  Not had a really cold April since 1989 anomaly wise for CET. Is one around the corner? I think so. This year? I'm going for a little bit warmer than average April

Better prediction this time after the last two months.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

on 18th Dec, gone with May to be below average, dominated by northerly and easterly winds

[Mokidugway]

Interesting was 2006 recorded a temperature of 23 c car temperature  at 3am driving to Manchester 

[shuggee]

When the current cycle breaks and with the return of SW'ly dominated weather as we enter the European Monsoon season in early June, I'm predicting some very wet weather...

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, shuggee said:

When the current cycle breaks and with the return of SW'ly dominated weather as we enter the European Monsoon season in early June, I'm predicting some very wet weather...

Not putting your neck out there shuggie 

[shuggee]

True enough!  But the question is how wet - and with SE England being so dry....Really feels like the calm before the storm this year.

[Weather-history]

On 18 December 2016 at 09:28, Weather-history said:

 

May: disappointing month, wetter than average, below average sunshine.

 

Yet another bust. 

[cheese]

Maybe next month WH. 

[Weather-history]

On 18 December 2016 at 09:28, Weather-history said:

 

July: warmer than average, reasonable.

August: best month of the summer in terms of warmth, sunshine, thundriest month of the summer.

 

Funny enough, it will be the thundriest month here not that it was going to be difficult to achieve.

[lassie23]

Foggy October + high OFI= snow for all

[Weather-history]

On 12/18/2016 at 09:28, Weather-history said:

September: not a bad month, dryish, reasonably sunny, a little bit warmer than average.

October: windier, wetter, month with some gales, mildish.

 

Closer with October than September

[D.B.]

This is my prediction:

-Cold

-Snow.

-Blizzards.

[Lettucing Gutted]

I'm surprised that no one has mentioned anything about the complete lack of cold months in 2017.  Even the coolest months anomaly wise (August, September, November and December) were all very close to average and at least compared to all 3 modern 30 year averages, they were below average by the smallest amount on record.  This even beats hte very feeble cool anomalies from 1999, 2002, 2004 and 2005.