Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[Boro Snow]

1 minute ago, Cakie said:

In Darlington. Steady rain and rumbles in the distance 

Yep looks to be in the Hurworth area just south of us, only 14 degrees and does not feel humid 

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Not going to plan in the north neither because where is the rain over parts of northern England now on that screenshot? 

Indeed even in Scotland the rain is much further east than was shown less than 12 hours ago

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Rapid developments north of Cambridge! 

[Dangerous55019]

Convective Sky Watch Update. 

Thats better... The grey crud is now burning off nicely... Now for the sun to do it's job and start getting everything as hot and humid as possible. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Not going to plan in the south compared with the beebs forecast last night 

 

bbc can be a shocker, your latest post SS shows they had it too far north and west, believing bbc (foolish I know) was thinking delayed start to play today on outside courts

[sparky1972]

1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Rapid developments north of Cambridge! 

really need any showers to hold off and get some heat in first, lol

[staplehurst]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Indeed even in Scotland the rain is much further east than was shown less than 12 hours ago

Don't forget the Stornoway radar is out until December for maintenance, so it won't pick up any rain over the Western Isles etc. 

NE England coming off as expected, several models suggested an uptick in elevated convection here as the approaching upper trough engages with the northern fringe of warm plume emanating from Wales last night. AROME in a broad sense seems to be handling things better with regards to the SE corner than any other model that i've seen during the past 2 days. EC and GFS suggest an increase in thunderstorm coverage over SE England and the Home Counties to Cambs by the end of this morning - we shall see.

Less activity (and cloud cover) in the SE may bode better for later in the afternoon for areas largely north of London...

Edited July 6, 2017 by staplehurst

[Windblade]

Bright sunshine this morning at 7am over london with lots of acas appearing. I do fancy my chances today.

[Summer Sun]

Another crack of thunder in Darlington

Edited July 6, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Boro Snow]

Thunder again in Darlington good start to the day 

[Snow Slave]

17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Not going to plan in the south compared with the beebs forecast last night 

 

yeap bone dry here, don't see it raining any time soon either. BBC forecast WAY off. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

5 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

really need any showers to hold off and get some heat in first, lol

So far it's been a very good start with the sun getting to work. Our fun may well be reserved for this evening as the trough approaching from the west should fire things off. Keep an eye out for development over the Midlands/Wales, as it will be all heading this way. 

[Summer Sun]

A few showers have developed to the NW of London worth seeing if they develop further

[Mapantz]

Nice to those further North getting some action. I think a lot will develop later on, if Cambridge is anything to go by.

[Windblade]

Storm in the channel is going crazy but headed in the wrong direction (north eastwards).

[Had Worse]

Cloud building over my house, the view is facing SSE

[doctor32]

 Some torrential rain across parts of the north east this morning, some roads badly flooded and lots of surface water.

 

These heavy showers and thunderstorms developed pretty quick as shown above in just an hour or so.

Quite explosive in development.

 

Edited July 6, 2017 by doctor32

[Summer Sun]

This is how the beeb see things this afternoon (08:05 forecast)

[poseidon]

Could see decent elevated convection further north from stansted airport - may be that cell Cambridge way. Not much of note round here currently and the cloud keeps cutting the heating off.

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 06 Jul 2017 - 05:59 UTC Fri 07 Jul 2017

ISSUED 07:19 UTC Thu 06 Jul 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 06 Jul 2017 - 05:59 UTC Fri 07 Jul 2017 ISSUED 07:19 UTC Thu 06 Jul 2017 ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 07:19 UTC No changes to the map for now - elevated thunderstorms now developing over NE England as outlined below, moving offshore later this morning. However, elevated thunderstorms have largely failed to materialise over SE England so far, against the vast majority of NWP guidance (even 00z runs). AROME, while not perfect, seems to be handling this better with many runs yesterday suggesting a mid-late morning event for the far SE corner. For now retain the MDT risk here, but it is likely this will need to be removed based on latest trends. With less activity over the SE this morning, this perhaps brings a greater chance of thunderstorms over the northern Home Counties and into East Anglia later today, which could be severe

Summary: Active cluster of thunderstorms likely S/SE England Thursday morning, perhaps extending into S Midlands / East Anglia, clearing NE-wards. Showery precipitation with embedded lightning possible NE England for the first half of the morning, clearing into the North Sea. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon hours from E Wales / W Midlands through NW/C N England, these could be severe as they drift east through the evening hours. As is often the case in these situations, uncertainty exists and is detailed below... 

... NE ENGLAND - THURSDAY MORNING ...

Good agreement for a developing area of showery precipitation over N/NE England for the first half of Thursday morning at least, with perhaps some embedded lightning - this eventually moving out over the North Sea by late morning.

... S/SE ENGLAND / S MIDLANDS / HOME COUNTIES / EAST ANGLIA ...

Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the forecast period over portions of S/SE England, these producing frequent lightning. General trend is for these to drift NE-wards with time, perhaps into parts of East Anglia and the south Midlands, though some uncertainty as to the northern and western extent, and whether they may start to weaken towards late morning and into the afternoon. There is a low risk that these storms could become rooted in the boundary layer if clearance is slow, and in which case they may begin to pose greater hazards from large hail and flash flooding.

... E WALES / N ENGLAND / MIDLANDS / EAST ANGLIA ...

Provided sufficient insolation occurs and cloud cover from early developments is not too extensive, then scattered thunderstorms may develop in a zone from E Wales / W Mids to NW Eng to NE Eng during the afternoon hours given dewpoints in the high teens coupled with forced ascent as a developing cold front begins to advance eastwards (and marked wind convergence).

Given 1,000-1,500 Jkg-1 CAPE and some reasonable deep layer shear, large hail up to 3.0cm in diameter would be possible, along with strong gusts of wind and localised flash flooding. A tornado could not be ruled out, though the risk is generally low. In a broad sense, the greatest risk of severe hazards (hail, flooding and tornado) increases towards the southern end of the SVR threat area, but here storms are more likely to be isolated given stronger capping and perhaps a hang-back of cloud following morning elevated convection. Any storms that do develop will drift towards the east, perhaps a little more south of east by the evening hours, and could survive into the night as they exit across the North Sea.

Worth stressing storms will be scattered in nature and so inevitably some places will stay dry, despite a large geographical area potentially at risk.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-06

[Gordon Webb]

Hello All

have plans to do some gardening about 6pm and was wondering if any storms that crop up in the midlands will been through by then or should I delay it a little

[Azazel]

Soupy looking sky today. 

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

Hello All

have plans to do some gardening about 6pm and was wondering if any storms that crop up in the midlands will been through by then or should I delay it a little

Arome has handled it best this morning the issue is just how isolated they are likely to be

[Mapantz]

Developing rapidly around London now

[Gordon Webb]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Arome has handled it best this morning the issue is just how isolated they are likely to be

thanks for that