September 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

[JeffC]

Guess they've overlooked updating this bit of their website so far then.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

[NorthYorksWeather]

Finished 13.5c here, bang on the 1981-2010 average.

Max Mean 17.5c (+0.0c)

Min Mean: 9.4c (-0.1c)

[J10]

Firstly a big thank you to Roger for his massive help in running the comp each month.

Based on the confirmed 13.5c figure this month. No player got the figure spot on, but 3 players were 0.2c out.

Christopher (1st)
Alexis (2nd)
stewfox (3rd)

and this is the order for the Seasonal comp, (in brackets above).

Overall there is no change in the top 3 which remains

davehsug (1st)
I remember Atlantic 252 (2nd)
Weather26 (3rd)

Sept 2017 CET.xlsx
Sept 2017 CET.pdf

[Summer Sun]

September confirmed as 0.1 below the 61 to 90 average

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[cheeky_monkey]

Finished on 11.0c here which is -1.1c below normal..ave high 18.4c ave low 3.6c

September had a very warm/hot start a very cool middle and a warm ending.

[North-Easterly Blast]

On ‎10‎/‎1‎/‎2017 at 16:40, Weather-history said:

The last time both August and September were below their 1961-90 averages was in 1993 by the looks of it.

I would not call a month that is 0.1 below average a cool month.  It is still very close to average.  Just goes to show how desperate things are getting when people are describing a month 0.1*C below average as a cool month.  I would call a September like 2015 or even 2012 a cool month, but Sep 2017 at 13.5 is still an average month to me.

 

 

[Weather-history]

8 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I would not call a month that is 0.1 below average a cool month.  It is still very close to average.  Just goes to show how desperate things are getting when people are describing a month 0.1*C below average as a cool month.  I would call a September like 2015 or even 2012 a cool month, but Sep 2017 at 13.5 is still an average month to me.

 

 

Whose described it as a cool month?

[Roger J Smith]

UPDATES for recent normals and Consensus in the scoring.

 

Table of forecast errors and position points (Normal 1987-2016 played Dec as 1986-2015)

Error stat is forecast value minus actual value. Negative value means normal or consensus too low. 

... Positive means normal or consensus too high. The average error (not absolute) is 0.7 deg too low for Normal 1981-2010 and 0.5 too low for normals of most recent 30 years, The average error of our consensus is also 0.5 too low. We have been too low six times and too high four times, one of the six too low was within 0.1. Our largest errors were in December, February, March and May.

Errors are then averaged by absolute values as in our scoring tables, and points are totalled. These values appear in the second last column (mean/T).

Positions are relative to all players who have entered at least 9/10 months so far (this is more relevant to the average errors than the total points).

 

FORECASTER ____ Dec _ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep __ mean/T __ position

 

Normal 1981-2010 _  -1.4 _ +0.4_ -1.7_ -2.1_ -0.4 _ -1.5 _ -1.5 _ -0.1 _ +0.8 _ +0.5 ___ 1.04 __ 8th

__ points _________ 79.6_ 69.9_ 56,1_ 59.0_ 86.8 _49.7__7.5 _ 93.7 _ 61.8 _ 86.3 __ 650.4 __ 4th

 

Normal 1987-2016 _  -1.0 _ +0.6_ -1.3_ -2.0__ -0.1 _-1.4_ -1.5 _ -0.1 _ +0.9 _ +0.6 ___ 0.95 __t-5th

__ points _________ 89.8_ 58.0_ 67.4_ 61.8_  98.4_ 53.0__7.5 _93.7 _ 56.6 _ 82.9 __ 669.1 __ 3rd

 

Consensus _______  -2.1 _ -0.1_ -1.8_ -2.2 _ +0.9 _-1.3 _ -0.5 _+0.4 _ +0.9 _ +1.0 ___ 1.12 _ t-13th

__ points _________ 50.0 _95.7 _52.4 _56.2 _57.1 _56.4 _72.4_ 70.1 _ 56.6 _ 60.7 __ 627.6 __ 6th

 

The best strategy appears to be to predict 0.3 or 0.4 higher than recent normals. Somebody who always did that would have an absolute average error of 0.91 deg and would be ranked third in that statistic. Only Davehsug and IrememberAtlantic252 have lower average errors than that. Also, two contestants who missed the last two months are ahead in rankings (of at least one of the above three "players") but I have only ranked against any who missed zero or one month.

Our consensus continues to lag behind the two recent normals but is still in 6th place overall.