Hurricane Irma

[Iceberg]

Recon have found 943mb pressure but the actual area of lower pressure in the centre decreased. 

 

[crimsone]

Outer eyeway now 5 miles wider. Obviously flew through in a different direction this time.

It's that, or she's expanding outwards from the center. I know which I'd put my money on...

13:13z - M. CO15-35

[Iceberg]

Eye on that run was c15-35. So the outer wall was actually a bit larger. 

[crimsone]

2 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Eye on that run was c15-35. So the outer wall was actually a bit larger. 

Can that even happen? Seems to me to defy physics.

Surely more likely that it's just a difference in measurement due to direction/incomplete eyewall?

Edited September 4, 2017 by crimsone

[Iceberg]

Infra ir shows what I think might be the outer. 

[Iceberg]

Just now, crimsone said:

Can that even happen? Seems to me to defy physics.

Surely more likely that it's just a difference in measurement?

Not sure possibly as it looks like the outer isn't fully formed yet. Equally what's 5miles when you travelling in a plane hundreds of miles an eye inside a hurricane !

[crimsone]

 

(just some randomer I found on Twitter with an interesting image. No comment on the views of the account holder here!)

I note that the average remains pretty constant at the moment.

I'm also wondering how much each model weights the initial movement vector, because differences in that could explain quite a lot. On the other hand, it could just be different assessments of the characteristics of that Rossby Wave Train.

Edited September 4, 2017 by crimsone
Disclaimer

[Had Worse]

http://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/us-virgin-islands.html 

http://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/bahamas.html

http://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/dominican-republic.html

The serenity looks like being rudely interupted with the current track.

Edited September 4, 2017 by Had Worse

[Iceberg]

Current 12z gfs is a little bit further north missing Cuba but still very dangerous. 

Inner core is still getting on with it. Looking at various sat channels the outer wall is strengthening if it pulls this off it will be the biggest eye that Irma has developed with plenty of scope for ri. 

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Current 12z gfs is a little bit further north missing Cuba but still very dangerous. 

Inner core is still getting on with it. Looking at various sat channels the outer wall is strengthening if it pulls this off it will be the biggest eye that Irma has developed with plenty of scope for ri. 

Cuba would rip it to shreds with its mountainous terrain GFS 12z bad for CONUS. 

[Iceberg]

Cuba could it normally does this when the hurricanes are smallish and pass over the east or west of island (the two mountain ranges). 

I've seen a cat 4 reduced to a cat 1, but I've also seen them pass over like jumping over a log. 

I think the models ATM wouldn't allow for two much weakening maybe down to a cat 3 if a Cuba landfall did occur. 

Saying all the above though the gfs  12z allows a mis and a very big problem for Florida. 

Bearing in mind this is at t144 so at  least semi reliable now we have a sub 900 cat 5 buying an apartment in Miami. 

I don't think it's hyping it up to say that Florida authorities need to start making evacuation plans for Miami and south Florida. 

[crimsone]

OK... Something pretty odd is going on with this eye.

 

000
URNT12 KNHC 041712
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL112017
A. 04/16:52:20Z
B. 16 deg 43 min N
  053 deg 43 min W
C. 700 mb 2621 m
D. 92 kt
E. 310 deg 17 nm
F. 034 deg 102 kt
G. 305 deg 25 nm
H. 946 mb
I. 9 C / 3049 m
J. 16 C / 3043 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO26-32
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0311A IRMA               OB 07
MAX FL WIND 102 KT 305 / 25 NM 16:44:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 170 / 16 KT
;

[Iceberg]

If I had to guess, the inner eye is disintergrating and opening up as it does so. The Outer eye as least on sat looks to be incomplete. They should come together the inner then merges with the outer and the eye then contracts. 

Of course they could just be incorrect. !

 

[Iceberg]

121ft winds recorded and 113kt sustained Irma is banging on that cat 4 door very loudly. 

[Yarmy]

As someone has pointed out in the replies, the GFS has significantly lower pressure, but that just seems to be what that model does and it's the track that matters.

[karyo]

7 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

As someone has pointed out in the replies, the GFS has significantly lower pressure, but that just seems to be what that model does and it's the track that matters.

The 12z is the first ECM run in a while that does not produce a fish outcome. Irma scrapes southeast Florida and then makes a landfall in the Carolinas

[Iceberg]

Ec very similar to gfs direct hit on Miami probably as a cat 5 924mb. Then upto central Florida. 

[Iceberg]

Vortex has surface winds of 113kt maybe enough to justify a cat 4 upgrade. It's also supported by dvorak and the pressure. 

[Barking_Mad]

I'm guessing that the temps around south Florida and Cuba a few degrees warmer than its current position?

 

[Had Worse]

 

 

Will it still be showing a picture in a day or two?

[MattTarrant]

17 minutes ago, Barking_Mad said:

I'm guessing that the temps around south Florida and Cuba a few degrees warmer than its current position?

 

You would guess correctly. The warmest waters are currently pooling around the South/South East of Florida & to the West of the Bahamas. Unfortunately for the residents of these areas the GFS & ECM are increasingly taking the track of Irma through the area. The GFS is suggesting sustained Winds of 140mph and gusting to 160mph as Irma tracks close to Miami (Still 140/150 hrs away though so treated with caution as per usual).

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=25.18;-78.26;6&l=gust&t=20170910/09&m=gfs

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx

 

[Had Worse]

http://gokitecabarete.com/gokite-weather-and-live-beach-camera/

 

This also includes a good animation of Irma which takes it right up though Florida as of now.

[Chris.R]

3 hours ago, crimsone said:

OK... Something pretty odd is going on with this eye.

 

000
URNT12 KNHC 041712
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL112017
A. 04/16:52:20Z
B. 16 deg 43 min N
  053 deg 43 min W
C. 700 mb 2621 m
D. 92 kt
E. 310 deg 17 nm
F. 034 deg 102 kt
G. 305 deg 25 nm
H. 946 mb
I. 9 C / 3049 m
J. 16 C / 3043 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO26-32
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0311A IRMA               OB 07
MAX FL WIND 102 KT 305 / 25 NM 16:44:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 170 / 16 KT
;

Hey do you have a link for all that raw data? I love looking at stuff like that. 

[Iceberg]

Nhc have just updated Irma is now a 115kt cat 4 hurricane. 

They forecast the strengthening to continue to just 7kt below a cat 5 whilst near the leeward islands. 

Re the inner eye concentric walls etc they confirm that the two walls pretty much joined together. 

[Iceberg]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

Hey do you have a link for all that raw data? I love looking at stuff like that. 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml