Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[bobbydog]

12 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Not liking the positively tilted jet helped by the dreaded Bartlett! ?

bartlett? sorry mate, i think you've posted in the wrong year....

[nick sussex]

Very little support for the ECM op from the GEFS at the interesting timeframe T120hrs and T144hrs.

The ECM manages to elongate  the low to the sw west which is crucial in allowing that possible snow for the far north.

It could be that the lower resolution GEFS are having problems here. On a different matter we have the ECM ensemble  850 spreads coming out soon.

This mornings had an unusually large spread at only T120hrs running se through the UK signifying the problems with where the cold/ milder boundary might lie across the country before fronts move in from the sw.

 

Edited November 17, 2017 by nick sussex

[Summer Sun]

An unsettled end to UKMO with a large area of low pressure in the Atlantic sending rain and stronger winds to all parts at times

Edited November 17, 2017 by Summer Sun

[nick sussex]

Looking at the ECM ensembles they're solid behind this remaining knife edge for any snow. This looks reserved if it happens for the far north with still huge uncertainty as to how far south the cold comes into the north.

It could be that the ops are leading the way here given the timeframes with the drop down in resolution of the ensembles making them unreliable in terms of cold/mild boundary.

Certainly to avoid disappointment don't bank on the ECM being right if you're in the higher chance area for snow. The margin for error is minimal.

Given we're now talking of between T96 and T120hrs out even with the GFS 18hrs run being a bit eccentric at times that extra 6 hours of new data could be important in seeing if it will edge to the ECM.

 

Edited November 17, 2017 by nick sussex

[booferking]

21 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Looking at the ECM ensembles they're solid behind this remaining knife edge for any snow. This looks reserved if it happens for the far north with still huge uncertainty as to how far south the cold comes into the north.

It could be that the ops are leading the way here given the timeframes with the drop down in resolution of the ensembles making them unreliable in terms of cold/mild boundary.

Certainly to avoid disappointment don't bank on the ECM being right if you're in the higher chance area for snow. The margin for error is minimal.

Given we're now talking of between T96 and T120hrs out even with the GFS 18hrs run being a bit eccentric at times that extra 6 hours of new data could be important in seeing if it will edge to the ECM.

 

Go have a look at the GEM ENS quite a lot are further South, snow events for North England Northern Ireland odd one even further South central England i know starting to clutch straws using the mighty GEM ENS.

Edited November 17, 2017 by booferking

[JBMWeatherForever]

Just don't see SW's out of this. What I see is the cold air trending ever further south. Surely once the cold air becomes well established to our east and north east, this will also help to stop any progression of the milder air and then actually reverse it. Then the Northern Uk gets battleground snow and eventually the cold wins out.  Is that not why this is not yet resolved because of the problems the models have with such situations ? 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All! It does look like cold air will be flirting with the uk apart from the odd mild day during the next ten days , but what form ,shape or size remains open to jury. A high level of Shannon Entropy in the days ahead. Possible stormy conditions too, but the outlook is generally cold, and we here in Evesham have had numerous frosts this month , minus 3c early this morning..... A lot of very interesting seasonal weather ahead. From stormy to cold Winter weather and cold winter weather to stormy  is what is in store for the uk this Winter...Ask the Sun in our sky, Teleconections Although very interesting, are a waste of time , so many missing links that humans don't know go to prove why long range weather forecasts are always wrong and a complete waste of time....

[johnholmes]

23 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Teleconections Although very interesting, are a waste of time , so many missing links that humans don't know go to prove why long range weather forecasts are always wrong and a complete waste of time.

Not sure why you say this, it is wrong in my view. Longer range professional outputs are improving, unless you wish to keep your head in the sand.

[karlos1983]

14 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Not sure why you say this, it is wrong in my view. Longer range professional outputs are improving, unless you wish to keep your head in the sand.

 Completely agree, not only is it like putting your head in the sand, it’s disrespectful imo to those who invest A LOT of time in studying these. I bet those who boo hoo still take the time to read said long range forecasts. Crazy . I bet nobody thought you could make a 1.8L engine fit an F1 car that would break lap record after lap record. Explore the boundaries and evolve the knowledge, can only be better for anyone who is fascinated by the weather.

Edited November 17, 2017 by karlos1983

[bobbydog]

13 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Not sure why you say this, it is wrong in my view. Longer range professional outputs are improving, unless you wish to keep your head in the sand.

yes john. i thought it a bit of an odd thing to say. "ask the sun in the sky"....?  more likely he's had his head in a couple of bottles of prosecco...

[Rocheydub]

18z rolling out and it shows a more southerly track for the low pressue that was off France at 108hrs now off coast of France. Could be just inter run miniscule change, but a more southerly track of that low could drag the colder air towards us. Time will tell. Hope I haven't jinxed it!

Actually scrap that, made no difference, the Euro high is stopping it sliding away again, just looked a little diffeent this time. Ah well. The jinx continues.

Edited November 17, 2017 by Rocheydub

[Mucka]

Do we have scientific evidence and data that shows that LRF are more accurate?

And if so more accurate than when and how much more accurate?

I think there may be a middle ground here which is where the "truth" often lies.

Clearly there is science in studying teleconnections and using that knowledge to make predictions but also it is clear that the science is incomplete.

We have competing LRF's from various agencies and models, often they are very different.

Surely some will be right and some will be wrong but there is no consistency and so no faith should be pinned on any LRF IMO.

but that doesn't mean we throw the baby out with the bathwater either.

 

Edited November 17, 2017 by Mucka

[ANYWEATHER]

17 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Not sure why you say this, it is wrong in my view. Longer range professional outputs are improving, unless you wish to keep your head in the sand.

Sorry John don't agree, They are not improving , I see no improvement in weather forecasting despite the tax payers millions of pounds wasted at Exeter.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Decent day in the south next Wednesday, expect a southerly shift though tomorrow sadly, bit like ECM

[bobbydog]

2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Sorry John don't agree, They are not improving , I see no improvement in weather forecasting despite the tax payers millions of pounds wasted at Exeter.

i suggest you open another thread mate - and call it 'a can of worms'.....

[karlos1983]

10 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Do we have scientific evidence and data that shows that LRF are more accurate?

And if so more accurate than when and how much more accurate?

I think there may be a middle ground here which is where the "truth" often lies.

Clearly there is science in studying teleconnections and using that knowledge to make predictions but also it is clear that the science is incomplete.

We have competing LRF's from various agencies and models, often they are very different.

Surely some will be right and some will be wrong but there is no consistency and so no faith should be pinned on any LRF IMO.

but that doesn't mean we throw the baby out with the bathwater either.

 

That’s a bit sit on the fenc”y mucka. (Hope not to offend)

It’s a pretty simple process imo, the more data we have, i.e. the more years that pass, and the more invested, the better lrf’s Will become. It’s a no brainer...

you can’t even think about throwing the baby out of the pram. 

 

Edited November 17, 2017 by karlos1983

[ANYWEATHER]

14 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

yes john. i thought it a bit of an odd thing to say. "ask the sun in the sky"....?  more likely he's had his head in a couple of bottles of prosecco...

Well it was a very odd thing to post this, The Sun  controls our weather ...

[karlos1983]

Just now, ANYWEATHER said:

Well it was a very odd thing to post this, The Sun  controls our weather ...

The force is strong in the sun. But it doesn’t quite end there. Example, if the sea disappeared, that would have a pretty big  impact, equally unlikely 

[bobbydog]

Just now, ANYWEATHER said:

Well it was a very odd thing to post this, The Sun  controls our weather ...

no, i think you'll find that's the Daily Express.... 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

no, i think you'll find that's the Daily Express.... 

No Emoji does that response justice, I’ve just fallen off the couch 

[Team Jo]

Aaaaaaaand before I spend my Friday night PMing and deleting posts, maybe we can get this back on topic eh? The validity of LRF can probably be discussed in another thread.

ta!

[frosty ground]

I love this kind of set up heavy blustery wintry showers..... 

Edited November 17, 2017 by frosty ground

[festivalking]

Tasty winds cold winds at t186 on 18z tonight. Trough moving eastwards a bit more letting some colder air move down

[karlos1983]

Long term things don’t look that bad, wouldn’t be to difficult to find a route to cold from here. 18z +192

Edited November 17, 2017 by karlos1983

[phil nw.]

Post removed- as already requested back to model discussions please all.

If those involved wish to continue please use the Climate area or open a new thread.Thanks.

Edited November 17, 2017 by phil nw.