The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards

[kmanmx]

HIRLAM did very well a few weeks ago, and it's showing tasty things for tonight for many of us.

 

 

 

 

 

3am onwards the heavier stuff seems to stall over central midlands and dissipate rather than move in any particular direction, if that happens and it stays as snow... boom, headshot!

Edited December 26, 2017 by kmanmx

[MattStoke]

Euro4 has finally gone further north.

[shaky]

7 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

HIRLAM did very well a few weeks ago, and it's showing tasty things for tonight for many of us.

 

 

 

 

 

3am onwards the heavier stuff seems to stall over central midlands and dissipate rather than move in any particular direction, if that happens and it stays as snow... boom, headshot!

That looks better for leicester!!still dont understand why the east mids struggle to get snow on the nmm!mild sector aint that far north!your model still show the same mate?

[kmanmx]

Difference between EURO4 00z and 06z is startling. 

Latest 06z

 

00z

 

 

Looks like the EURO4 has no real certainty.

[MattStoke]

Northern correct from the Euro4. Good for more of the Midlands.

Oops. Beaten to it. Oh well!

Edited December 26, 2017 by MattStoke

[A.J]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

That looks better for leicester!!still dont understand why the east mids struggle to get snow on the nmm!mild sector aint that far north!your model still show the same mate?

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Difference between EURO4 00z and 06z is startling. 

Latest 06z

 

00z

 

 

Looks like the EURO4 has no real certainty.

Yup and identical to ecm and we know how much snow that gives to the midlands!its a massive upgrade on the euro4 and leicester is in that red spot aswell lol!!

[BarometerCat]

Thanks all for the precip charts, looks very interesting later but guess it is down to IMBY conditions whether or not we see a dumping.  Good luck for later for those wanting snow!

Worth a peep on the radar in the evening to see how these charts add up...defo staying up.

 

edit - just took another look at EURO4. Intense in some central areas later...also now showing on radar down SW

Edited December 26, 2017 by Barometer Cat

[Dancerwithwings]

Yes further north on this site also......I wonder when the MO will note this 

Edited December 26, 2017 by Dancerwithwings

[BleakMidwinter]

4 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Yes further north on this site also......I wonder when the MO will note this 

A little further north like this would be nice for we greedy souls in Shropshire!

I think one of the problems with trying to sort out reliability of different models is that snow results from so many different set-ups. The Shropshire snowmageddon a fortnight back from the Cheshire Streamer on the Friday was reasonably solidly forecast for some days in advance on pretty well all models, but the Sunday/Monday snow from the Werly was uncertain right up until a few hours beforehand for Shropshire - I can only assume that the specific conditions of the Friday dump were less volatile and unpredictable and easily altered than the specific conditions of the Sun/Mon Werly snow. 

I've only lived here three years and the last few weeks have been amazing - but it's a vertical learning curve, in here and in the MOT, trying to learn the multiple different set-ups that could result in snow in Telford. I used to live in Edinburgh which was simple: very little snow from most set-ups, including no snow at all when the whole UK was buried in 2009-10, but then snowmageddon from very specific Eerly set-up such as 1979-80 and 2010-2011 when it snowed for six weeks every single day without exception and for days and days on end didn't go above freezing, the Post Office stopped collecting post across the whole city, and we ended up having to get the Army in when it did stop because half a million people walking on snow from late November to mid-February results in pavements with compressed-packed-ice some 8 inches thick which required pickaxes and even pneumatic chisels to break up... but mostly, Edinburgh gets very little snow. So I'm used to the idea that you wait patiently for years until just the right set of things com together (it's the same with supporting the Scotland rugby side  ) but I have to learn the set-ups needed round here...!

I love this site

[weirpig]

Agree that this will be a nowcast event. Ecm has rain to snow event much quicker  could be a case of warnings updated at the last minute 

[Dancerwithwings]

@BleakMidwinter I'm glad you've had a taste of Winter

We don't always get much as in snow, as you mentioned other parts of the UK get loads (Especially Scotland)

But for once we have bragging rights and maybe twice in a month.....It's just 

Edited December 26, 2017 by Dancerwithwings

[Fozfoster]

Met Office still saying sleet for here 

if we are lucky ???

just up dated sleet and bit of snow, time for more upgrades 

Edited December 26, 2017 by Fozfoster

[Matthew Gill]

Met office now showing rain to sleet to heavy snow back to rain. Well they are really covering their backs this time lol. I do remember a similar situation to this many years ago when they said it all as going to rain with a little sleet and snow and I woke up to 6in!! 

[kmanmx]

4 minutes ago, Matthew Gill said:

Met office now showing rain to sleet to heavy snow back to rain. Well they are really covering their backs this time lol. I do remember a similar situation to this many years ago when they said it all as going to rain with a little sleet and snow and I woke up to 6in!! 

...Of snow, or...  ?

 

 

In other news, MetO now have Leicester down for sleet up til midnight, and then 5 hours of heavy snow. Temps are 1c lower than earlier today too, whereas before it was a degree warmer and sleet through the entire event.

Edited December 26, 2017 by kmanmx

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

...Of snow, or...  ?

Any update on your model mate?

[northwestsnow]

Its a nowcast guys..

Think a bit of altitude will help

[kmanmx]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Any update on your model mate?

Still going for 60 to 70cm ! Leicester in the sweet spot  solid snow from 11pm through to 8am. 

[Fozfoster]

13 minutes ago, Matthew Gill said:

Met office now showing rain to sleet to heavy snow back to rain. Well they are really covering their backs this time lol. I do remember a similar situation to this many years ago when they said it all as going to rain with a little sleet and snow and I woke up to 6in!! 

Show off ??

[fizz511]

Well, we’re now showing 6 hours of heavy snow with the MetO, followed by 2 hours of light snow.

Could do with it being 24hrs later really as it’s our bin day tomorrow, and they sooooo need emptying, which they won’t be if that lot comes off! ?

[BleakMidwinter]

31 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

@BleakMidwinter I'm glad you've had a taste of Winter

We don't always get much as in snow, as you mentioned other parts of the UK get loads (Especially Scotland)

But for once we have bragging rights and maybe twice in a month.....It's just 

That was what I meant, sorry a bit cold-lurgied so maybe not clear enough - I used to live in a bit of Scotland that really DIDN'T get much snow, so this is very familiar excitement, except that I'm having to learn all the new weather systems that could provide set-ups for my new home-district!

 

[MattStoke]

Snow symbols back for Stoke. 

[ANYWEATHER]

29 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Still going for 60 to 70cm ! Leicester in the sweet spot  solid snow from 11pm through to 8am. 

Two foot of snow.  Never

[kmanmx]

Just now, ANYWEATHER said:

Two foot of snow.  Never

Admittedly, the kmanmxinator2000 supercomputer has known to be somewhat optimistic while intoxicated during the festive period.

 

 

[Dancerwithwings]

30 minutes ago, fizz511 said:

Well, we’re now showing 6 hours of heavy snow with the MetO, followed by 2 hours of light snow.

Could do with it being 24hrs later really as it’s our bin day tomorrow, and they sooooo need emptying, which they won’t be if that lot comes off! ?

Sod ya bins Fizz A probable snow set up like this is rare and hopefully we will talking about it for a while not whether your bins got/get picked up or not.....

Mines this Thursday so you never know after 12" and a very fast thaw could have mine swept away with flash flooding   

Edited December 26, 2017 by Dancerwithwings