Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

[Norrance]

2 hours ago, Stormeh said:

I was also trying to find out but cant see anything!

I am very interested in this SSW though and how it can POSSIBLY affect the UK but before that we have Sunday and Monday to look forward to with a cold north westerly bringing heavy snow showers to the west. Uppers look pretty decent to me and winds may become more westerly bringing showers well inland

There maybe even a few surprises in the early hours of tomorrow morning but it does look short lived.

As igloo said, if this SSW doesn't deliver then avoid the MOD thread

There is quite a good description of an SSW IN THE mT around 12.30 today posted by KyleHenry. Written in easy to understand terms.

[Serac]

Minus 13 last night and nearly a metre of snow on the ground.  It’s mega.

Ok so am in Norway just now but hey.

 

[Hairy Celt]

8 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Snow chances popping out of thin air, the GFS 12z picked up on this and now the Euro4:

 

Yeah, I saw that and thought, 'yay, another fun day out tomorrow!'  Just wondering whether it'll be the snizzly stuff like yesterday or 50p piece stuff from a couple of weeks ago.

This is a bit of a hospital case but worth a look - taken pretty much directly into full sun the other day, another view of Ben Klibreck over Loch Naver.

 

[Ruzzi]

57 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

 

@Blitzen and the rest of the Fife mob, have a look at this. The pink/blue Euro4 charts are at 6 hour intervals but only show the previous 3 hours precip. This is is the plain precip chart for 6am-9am and most of that would be snow:

Looks healthy for here too, maybe a wee surprise on the cards in the morning. The rain preceding it might make it that bit harder to stick initially but certainly looking like there's a chance of a wee fall. 

The MetO automated forecast for here however does not agree in the slightest but it's hardly ever close to being accurate 

to the contrary though, Sean on stv did just mention a couple of cm at low levels and several cm possible over the higher areas. 

Edited February 8, 2018 by Ruzzi

[Hawesy]

56 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

 

@Blitzen and the rest of the Fife mob, have a look at this. The pink/blue Euro4 charts are at 6 hour intervals but only show the previous 3 hours precip. This is is the plain precip chart for 6am-9am and most of that would be snow:

Looking at GFS and EURO4 the former has it cold enough for snow at low levels in eastern Scotland from roughly 3am onwards, the latter more like 6am. Could be an interesting morning. Unfortunately (or thankfully, depending on your view ) no time for predictions tonight! 

[shuggee]

It's not normal that for every day of the next eight days (as far as the forecast goes) there's various amounts of snow at my hoose.. Surely?

But I could get used to it!! 

[Ruzzi]

17 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

If it turns out like the Euro4 it's going to turn to heavy snow very quickly, dew points and 950s are looking really good. Loads of precip. It's got "sudden total whiteout" written all over it:

950 temps (black lines show the height in 10s of metres at which the air pressure is 950hpa, so it is -3 at about 430m above Fife):

Dew points:

Temps at 2m:

3 hour precip totals:

This could be 50 miles north or south, most of Scotland is in the potential firing line. 

So someone is getting pasted when you put it like that ? 

Admittedly the conditions do look favourable on those images, I hadn't looked but dafty presumed it was going to be more marginal. I also made an assumption that there was some sort of milder sectors wrapped up as the the forecast at Livingston was showing all snow at lower elevation where as for here further west and higher elevation was showing just a mixture of rain and sleet and next no snow. 

Certainly looks interesting! 

 

Edit: 

here's the overview of the 850's aswell at 6am and 9am with -10 pushing into the northwest and generally -8,-9 widely around 9am. 

The euro 4 snow accumulation certainly showing the interest between 6am and 9am 

 

Edited February 8, 2018 by Ruzzi

[Stormeh]

Very interesting @CatchMyDrift, thanks for the updates

Sunday. Monday and Tuesday looking very good for us also but nothing about it in the MOD thread as it’s all about the SSW there

Possible big snow event on Tuesday?...

[grifter]

Any lightning happening anywhere, my lights keep flicking low and back up?

[Stormeh]

26 minutes ago, grifter said:

Any lightning happening anywhere, my lights keep flicking low and back up?

Happening here as well in Barrhead. No sferics anywhere near the area. Maybe it’s the SSW causing it haha 

[grifter]

8 hours ago, Stormeh said:

Happening here as well in Barrhead. No sferics anywhere near the area. Maybe it’s the SSW causing it haha 

 

at least I know it's not just me that is seeing it. Happened again there, maybe it's a solar storm too!

[edo]

nice analysis CMD

 

50 miles further North please

 

@hawesy bottling it  

[howham]

1 hour ago, grifter said:

 

at least I know it's not just me that is seeing it. Happened again there, maybe it's a solar storm too!

Steve Murr charging his mobile?

[Cheggers]

had a huge squall pass through about 45 min ago, almost ripped the rear gate off its hinges, and a serious downpour.

[Ruzzi]

3 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The Met-O automated forecast is bucking up its wee ideas too...mon the snow:

It was showing nothing earlier, not a single flake...

It certainly has ?

[edo]

place could be buzzing soon..... 

 

[Stormeh]

The latest euro4 looks good, some people are going to be waking up to some of the white stuff If it verifies 

[Ruzzi]

5 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

The latest euro4 looks good, some people are going to be waking up to some of the white stuff If it verifies 

Beat me to it, was just about to say, some higher parts of the southern central belt and West Lothian could be in for a bit of an unexpected pasting. Also a definite shift southwards of the precipitation I would suggest from what was forecast earlier. 

 

[Ruzzi]

Current radar pic looking healthy aswell 

[Ruzzi]

Having said all that, there's a very apparent downgrade from earlier in terms 950's and dew points etc. 

Current forecast conditions for 3am: 

950's

 

850's 

 

dew points 

 

2m temps

 

and then for 6am: 

950's 

 

850's 

 

dew points 

 

2m temps 

 

 

so it could be the case as I had first feared earlier on of it struggling to stick initially, especially at lower elevations 

 

Edited February 9, 2018 by Ruzzi

[Ruzzi]

I have literally no idea what's wrong, but something appears to have went drastically wrong with the overnight forecast ??

[Ruzzi]

judging by the 4am radar pick, my guess is that the precipitation that was showing as an area of heavy snow on the euro4 has moved in a lot earlier than anticipated and has not been as laden with precipitation as was forecast last night. The radar pic shows this quite well. Not to mention the precipitation is eroding very very quickly as it transgresses the country too, so much so that the heavier stuff is burning itself out a fair bit before it even reaches here, let alone making it further east. 

we do still have a very thin covering here but nothing to shout home about and looking at how wet it looks, I'd reckon there's plenty places at lower elevation that are soggy tarmac instead 

[101_North]

Head to bed after seeing great potential in the charts

Woken up before 6am by the noisy council street team gritting the street

Take the first 2 points. Link them logically and draw the obvious conclusion

Jump out of bed to look out the window

[Stormeh]

Well that didn’t go as expected haha 

Sunday should hopefully be a different story..

[Hawesy]

9 hours ago, edo said:

nice analysis CMD

50 miles further North please

@hawesy bottling it  

Judging by this mornings posts I’m glad I did.  should be back for Sunday!

Not to harp on about GFS too much but again for Leuchars it showing -10 850s and 514 dam for today just a couple of days ago. Now, on the day, it has -8c 850s and 519 dam. Currently showing -10c 850s and 511 dam for Sunday but will almost certainly tone this down as Sunday approaches.