Model output discussion - mid January

[snowray]

8 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Very cold southern Britain southeast England heavy snow showers..

Yes a few heavier showers look likely for a while as streamers set up shop, Kent, East Sussex, Essex coast, East side of London could do ok, in fact south of the M4 for once in 5 years.

But showers could pop up anywhere really in the east.

Edited January 28, 2018 by snowray

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Consistent control

 

[WalsallWeather123]

I think a sustained cold spell is incoming but the models show barely any precipation. Just cold and dry is what will pan out.

[Jason M]

Control is similar but maybe a tad further south. GEFS are a mix so lots of uncertainty. I suspect the opp run is the northern end of the envelope here given the jet running north. Maybe the GFS is overdoing the northern arm but my own gut feeling is that this will get squeezed a bit further south.

Time will tell.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

quick glance - GEFS are as flat as a pancake towards the end in the Atlantic - cold out of reach.

[Jason M]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

quick glance - GEFS are as flat as a pancake towards the end in the Atlantic - cold out of reach.

Yes, surprisingly poor tbh. The fact that opp and control go together though can't be ignored at these timescales.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Jason M said:

Yes, surprisingly poor tbh. The fact that opp and control go together though can't be ignored at these timescales.

Not really a big fan of that op and control theory tbh.

[snowray]

4 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Control is similar but maybe a tad further south. GEFS are a mix so lots of uncertainty. I suspect the opp run is the northern end of the envelope here given the jet running north. Maybe the GFS is overdoing the northern arm but my own gut feeling is that this will get squeezed a bit further south.

Time will tell.

 

This has been our fate in recent years of course, at least everything is still a long way off and we have plenty of time for upgrades, we certainly deserve something worthwhile for a change.

[BlackburnChris]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not really a big fan of that op and control theory tbh.

Control has higher resolution than the gefs

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, BlackburnChris said:

Control has higher resolution than the gefs

I thought it has the same resolution, that was the point of it - I place no more faith in the op or control beyond 200+, I like a good op / control run as its still 1 out of 21 runs - the  more that go cold the better.

[feb1991blizzard]

In any case even the control flattens eventually.

[BlackburnChris]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

I thought it has the same resolution, that was the point of it - I place no more faith in the op or control beyond 200+, I like a good op / control run as its still 1 out of 21 runs - the  more that go cold the better.

I know the control starts from intial conditions .. (as it is now) and goes from there.

[snowray]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I thought it has the same resolution, that was the point of it - I place no more faith in the op or control beyond 200+, I like a good op / control run as its still 1 out of 21 runs - the  more that go cold the better.

Beyond 200+, your being generous there feb. How about this lot of spaghetti then?

 

Op and control go from the coldest member to the mildest by the end of the run.

Edited January 28, 2018 by snowray

[Jason M]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

I thought it has the same resolution, that was the point of it - I place no more faith in the op or control beyond 200+, I like a good op / control run as its still 1 out of 21 runs - the  more that go cold the better.

My understanding is that control runs at same resolution as opp but with slightly different starting conditions. At shorter timescales or in complex set ups such as this I'd favor the opp and control over the ensembles (albeit I'd prefer to see a bit more back up).

 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Beyond 200+, your being generous there feb. How about this lot of spaghetti then?

 

Op and control go from the coldest member to the mildest by the end of the run.

Look where the clustering is though -that's where the smart money is ( a glancing -6c / -7c dry blow before the high topples in and the uppers rise)

[snowray]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look where the clustering is though -that's where the smart money is ( a glancing -6c / -7c dry blow before the high topples in and the uppers rise)

Something like this, the NAVGEM says no to the easterly, a lot of ENS members are going for something like this.

[inghams85]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look where the clustering is though -that's where the smart money is ( a glancing -6c / -7c dry blow before the high topples in and the uppers rise)

The GEFS have flip flopped for 5 days. Absolutely no point in taking every set with any seriousness really until we have solid clustering for 3+ runs in a row. Over reactions aren't needed. Not just yet mate.

[feb1991blizzard]

I would give it until tomorrow though, ive noticed this a lot recently and over the years, Overnight runs beginning a new week and Saturdays can be vastly differing, I think it will either trend very cold by tomorrow or trend away from frigid cokmpletely, I'm going for big changes overnight, whether for better or worse.

[inghams85]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would give it until tomorrow though, ive noticed this a lot recently and over the years, Overnight runs beginning a new week and Saturdays can be vastly differing, I think it will either trend very cold by tomorrow or trend away from frigid cokmpletely, I'm going for big changes overnight, whether for better or worse.

I've stuck to what i said a week ago. Tuesday's 12z will tell all as it will be just the right time for the models to start factoring in tropical information into the models. The 4th/5th is still too early for the easterly by the way. Watch the slowing down of the jet gradually from them as the West to East movement slows and amp grows helping to build heights further north 

[Daniel*]

42 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Very cold southern Britain southeast England heavy snow showers..

What with SSTs generally between 6-7C that’s a differential of roughly 20C with -13C uppers although they are shortlasting - that would really get them shower clouds growing, pressure is a tad high as one would like but cold enough to overcome that.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

I've stuck to what i said a week ago. Tuesday's 12z will tell all as it will be just the right time for the models to start factoring in tropical information into the models. The 4th/5th is still too early for the easterly by the way. Watch the slowing down of the jet gradually from them as the West to East movement slows and amp grows helping to build heights further north 

Yes 5th too early 8th onwards is the landing date but you would have thought there would be more that just a high pressure sinking because the PV is just too strong signal which is manifested in suites.

[feb1991blizzard]

Flat.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes 5th too early 8th onwards is the landing date but you would have thought there would be more that just a high pressure sinking because the PV is just too strong signal which is manifested in suites.

Really? If anything there is more going for it on the 5th currently on NWP not too early imo yes it probably won’t last long, rather than beyond that I’m not really seeing anything noteworthy yet.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Really? If anything there is more going for it on the 5th currently on NWP not too early imo yes it probably won’t last long, rather than beyond that I’m not really seeing anything noteworthy yet.

I'm not seeing anything noteworthy at all in the 18z

[inghams85]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes 5th too early 8th onwards is the landing date but you would have thought there would be more that just a high pressure sinking because the PV is just too strong signal which is manifested in suites.

A Scandinavian high is a balancing act of energy in the Northern and Southern arms of the jet and can't be modelled until within at least 168hours if not 120 hours ideally. It's climatology not picking up the strength of the ridge originally carved out on the 5th which will manifest by the 8th. Watch this space. Glosea is excellent at distance at energy distribution and this is seeing what we can't right now bar the odd rogue run