South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[DanDorsetUK]

Finally seen snow flakes in Sandbanks a rarity! 

[Nights King]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Every single model is showing this for coastal counties at least, i'm afraid.

every single bbc forecast shows all snow event too....

[MidnightSnow]

Just now, Mapantz said:

Pretty concise on the GFS ensembles . Whilst not mild, there's a good consensus  for normal temperatures out to the 6th March. A cold snap it is!

I know many on here like sustained cold, but I'd honestly be happy with a dumping of snow that isn't washed away by rain too quickly. 

Good way to go out before Spring.

[karlos1983]

Thursday for Poole looks alright to me! I think anyone would bank that personally 

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, Nights King said:

every single bbc forecast shows all snow event too....

I know their graphics are hard to distinguish .. haha

 

[Polar Bear]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-live-updates-travel-traffic-news-forecast-snow-ice-cold-freezing-roads-trains-flights-a8228596.html

 

Anyone know how to edit a website... " be at home by 6pm commuters told" .....Workers in the south east... so all I was thinking can someone just change to " workers in the south west... " 

[festivalking]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Thursday for Poole looks alright to me! I think anyone would bank that personally 

Very similar forecast here too. I wonder though why the percentage is not higher, low pressure system coming up guaranteed moisture surely? be nice if the symbol was dark cloud with two flakes beggars can't be choosers i guess!

[Matty-H]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I know their graphics are hard to distinguish .. haha

 

I'd watch the latest TV forecasts. They are nothing like that

[karlos1983]

Snowing again outside my window as I type. My Daughter will be so excited just to see snow falling, can’t wait to pick her up from school! 

[Zephyr]

Not seen a flake yet, the sun is even coming out, looking across east though there does seem to be a lot coming in land

[matt111]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Snowing again outside my window as I type. My Daughter will be so excited just to see snow falling, can’t wait to pick her up from school! 

I really hope for people who haven’t seen it , as well as myself of course, that we do get something decent and it doesn’t disappear too quickly at the end of the week. Still seems finely balanced as to what will happen. 

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, Matty-H said:

I'd watch the latest TV forecasts. They are nothing like that

The TV graphics are a lower resolution than that on the website.

[matt111]

2 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

Not seen a flake yet, the sun is even coming out, looking across east though there does seem to be a lot coming in land

Shame they couldn’t be heavier. Not that I’m greedy or anything. 

[Matty-H]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

The TV graphics are a lower resolution than that on the website.

They're also modified rather than raw data. I think I'll stick with the tv forecasts and the commentary that goes with them, that made no mention of rain.

Admittedly I'm in a far better position here than the south coast

[EllyTech]

'Summers Sun' has backed up the freezing rain potential from the Euro model. So the ice storm feared could be realised after all for our region. It looks dry afterward. A quick thaw would be a good outcome following, however, it could induce a red warning... I fear ice storms. 

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, Matty-H said:

Admittedly I'm in a far better position here than the south coast

Exactly! Every single forecast I can find shows any wintriness changing back to rain along the South coast.

[Barbel]

Few flakes here (near Axminster). Fingers crossed for plenty more!!

[Bristawl Si]

The snow forecast for later tomorrow looks like missing our area. Hitting the N Midlands then forecast to head into mid-Wales. Last night's forecasts had its remnants heading through Cotswolds and down through Bristol and into N Somerset.

Late Thurs/Fri? Wait and see re exact track.

The issue with Beeb forecasts now is that they use Meteogroup so are no longer from the Meto. Is your preference Met Office OR Meteogroup? I've noticed slight differences in accuracy over last week or so.

[EllyTech]

No snowflakes for me yet. 

A record dew point for me

 Temp 1C  Humidity 46%  Dewpoint -9C 

[festivalking]

Just now, Bristle boy said:

The snow forecast for later tomorrow looks like missing our area. Hitting the N Midlands then forecast to head into mid-Wales. Last night's forecasts had its remnants heading through Cotswolds and down through Bristol and into N Somerset.

Late Thurs/Fri? Wait and see re exact track.

The issue with Beeb forecasts now is that they use Meteogroup so are no longer from the Meto. Is your preference Met Office OR Meteogroup? I've noticed slight differences in accuracy over last week or so.

Yes the differences I note are in temperatures, Meteo are always higher and their precipitation prediction chance always lower. 

I prefer UKMO as what is the point of showing the % chance of rain in 2 weeks time at 3pm in the afternoon, waste of time!

[Mapantz]

Just now, Bristle boy said:

The issue with Beeb forecasts now is that they use Meteogroup so are no longer from the Meto. Is your preference Met Office OR Meteogroup? I've noticed slight differences in accuracy over last week or so.

The BBC's forecasts have degraded by a significant margin. They have had temperatures out by as much as 7 degrees here since they're started using Meteogroups's data. I would stick with the MetO. 

Luckily, it makes no odds here, both show rain later in the week.

[Matty-H]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

The snow forecast for later tomorrow looks like missing our area. Hitting the N Midlands then forecast to head into mid-Wales. Last night's forecasts had its remnants heading through Cotswolds and down through Bristol and into N Somerset.

Late Thurs/Fri? Wait and see re exact track.

The issue with Beeb forecasts now is that they use Meteogroup so are no longer from the Meto. Is your preference Met Office OR Meteogroup? I've noticed slight differences in accuracy over last week or so.

Important to remember that they do still use all models and have their own experts making judgements based on all output. Fergusson, Hammond, etc all expecting snow (here)

[Mapantz]

Oh yeah.. the BBC forecast a couple of weeks ago showed a day where heavy hail showers were supposed to fall all day. That didn't happen.

[Matty-H]

One thing I would say. If the met office are still expecting this to be a real event I would expect the warning to go amber at some stage today. If it stays totally without modification by tomorrow my expectations will start to wain

[Matty-H]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Oh yeah.. the BBC forecast a couple of weeks ago showed a day where heavy hail showers were supposed to fall all day. That didn't happen.

You’re looking at raw data. Pointless.