South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[offerman]

4 minutes ago, AWD said:

Can't say I am all that enthused with the latest 12z EC Det.

Looks a bit "meh" with a snow - rain - snow mix but most of the PPN relatively light.

No way near a mega blizzard anyway.

Absoloutely agree 

[Bristawl Si]

3 minutes ago, AWD said:

Can't say I am all that enthused with the latest 12z EC Det.

Looks a bit "meh" with a snow - rain - snow mix but most of the PPN relatively light.

No way near a mega blizzard anyway.

No surprise AWD.

My post yday eve effectively 'warned' against viewing model runs showing major snowstorm this far out. By Wednesday eve we'll have a better idea.

[khodds]

7 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I bet it dwindles again by tuesday 12z so we have patcy light snow forecast...

Im not feeling it this evening I just feel in grumpy mood and im convinced it will end up a non event with gradual erosion of cold spell before atlantic comes crashing in with an all rain event later on 

Maybe ill perk up later after a few beers. 

Yep. I’m with you on this. Pass me the gin before I get really angry ☹️

[karlos1983]

Wednesday got a good mention on south today for coastal snow! Fingers crossed. 

 

[Polar Bear]

Just seen South today weather.. now where’s @isleofwightsnowgal She mentions snow for Iow tomorrow and Wednesday...yay

[Bobafet]

Fantastic update on South today for the IOW. Possible weather warning maybe introduced on Wednesday for here.

Then disruptive snow Thursday Friday anywhere between 10-20 cm - no rain showing.

then a warm up Saturday/sunday

[AWD]

On a positive note, Ian's Points West forecast was still very good.  Interestingly showed 2 bands of snow across inland parts of the region.  One later on Thursday and one on Friday.

Whether that will change tomorrow or not, no one knows.  We will have to wait & see.

[Kreftysoton]

Did South Today mention 10-20cm Thursday/Friday also?? 

[iowpompeylee]

1 minute ago, Polar Bear said:

Just seen South today weather.. now where’s @isleofwightsnowgal She mentions snow for Iow tomorrow and Wednesday...yay

That’s my sister ? she will be lurking around soon! Let’s hope there’s some. I’m still looking at weds and Thursday for our best chance????????

[Polar Bear]

Just now, iowpompeylee said:

That’s my sister ? she will be lurking around soon! Let’s hope there’s some. I’m still looking at weds and Thursday for our best chance????????

Am rooting for you all being a solent girl born and bred . ??

[Bobafet]

2 minutes ago, Kreftysoton said:

Did South Today mention 10-20cm Thursday/Friday also?? 

Yes this was mentioned

[Nights King]

2 minutes ago, AWD said:

On a positive note, Ian's Points West forecast was still very good.  Interestingly showed 2 bands of snow across inland parts of the region.  One later on Thursday and one on Friday.

Whether that will change tomorrow or not, no one knows.  We will have to wait & see.

We need a miracle... could end up 9 years without a decent snow event...  that almost a third of my age in one stretch... ok maybe not quite a third  

Nothing ever goes in our favor luck wise.

[Bristawl Si]

Just now, AWD said:

On a positive note, Ian's Points West forecast was still very good.  Interestingly showed 2 bands of snow across inland parts of the region.  One later on Thursday and one on Friday.

Whether that will change tomorrow or not, no one knows.  We will have to wait & see.

Could head into France yet. Major blizzard? Not so sure.

Major blizzards in my lifetime i can remember:

February 78

NYE 1978 early morning to lunchtime; followed by another 2 in January 79. All epic.

A number in December 81

13 Jan 87 - epic

"Epic" - temps below 0c; biting winds; driving snow; 3 ft drifts.

[Nights King]

Just now, Bristle boy said:

Could head into France yet. Major blizzard? Not so sure.

Major blizzards in my lifetime i can remember:

February 78

NYE 1978 early morning to lunchtime; followed by another 2 in January 79. All epic.

A number in December 81

13 Jan 87 - epic

"Epic" - temps below 0c; biting winds; driving snow; 3 ft drifts.

Im 35 and I have never seen one. admittedly 87 i was alive but too young really.

[iowpompeylee]

There was a nice long streamer almost touchable from south east Isle of Wight today in the channel and of course we saw zilch of it aghhhh 

[Isleofwightsnowgal74]

7 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

Just seen South today weather.. now where’s @isleofwightsnowgal She mentions snow for Iow tomorrow and Wednesday...yay

I’m here!!!! ? missed it tho ???typical sounds positive tho 

[Isleofwightsnowgal74]

Please don’t get my hopes up ??? Feel more positive tonight tho roll on Thursday AND Thursday is my day off heehee ? bring it on ❄️?☃️

[AWD]

10 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Could head into France yet. Major blizzard? Not so sure.

Major blizzards in my lifetime i can remember:

February 78

NYE 1978 early morning to lunchtime; followed by another 2 in January 79. All epic.

A number in December 81

13 Jan 87 - epic

"Epic" - temps below 0c; biting winds; driving snow; 3 ft drifts.

I think heading into France is the least likely option as that would suggest a sliding/disrupting low, with the UK remaining cold through the weekend.  All 12z model data plus Meto forecasts unanimously agree on a warm up of sorts over the weekend for our region.  The core of the PPN missing our region and going up into South Wales instead is a viable option however.

To be fair and balanced, a major blizzard is looking fairly unlikely now.  Only the 12z ICON shows something close to this & even that wouldn't be classed as "major" in comparison to yesteryear.

However, on the flip side, some models, namely the 12z ICON, 12z UKMO, 12z WRF NMM  & 12z Arpege do show the West Country receiving a significant and potentially disruptive snowfall event sometime between 18:00 Thursday & 13:00 Friday.  It wouldn't be "epic" but it would be welcome nonetheless.

The downside is the other models, namely 12z EC Det & 12z GFS, show a messy snow/rain or snow/rain/snow event which would cause slushy, messy conditions rather than white conditions for most of us.

So to summarise, we are no clearer than we were yesterday with regards to Thursday/Fridays potential.  The risk is still there but it could still go many a way.  Personally, I am less confident of anything majorly noteworthy after tonights 12z runs now.

Edited February 26, 2018 by AWD

[offerman]

8 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Im 35 and I have never seen one. admittedly 87 i was alive but too young really.

Being an old fooker has its advantages 

I saw the one in 78 I was 6 also remember 4-5 in the 80s especially 81 and 87 

another in early 90 s I think . 

On the plus side if we don’t get a major blizzard and that heads in to France then 

cold further south in to France is good for us and also means the low should

do an icon and traverse across France not up to us . 

[Andy Bown]

Tried to quote AWD re Ian's forecast but it hasn't worked!

I noticed the 2 snow bands too, think that will tie in with fax charts I saw earlier which had an upper warm front then, I think, an occlusion.

Snowing in Warminster leaving a dusting in the last half hour.

[offerman]

Just now, Andy Bown said:

Tried to quote AWD re Ian's forecast but it hasn't worked!

I noticed the 2 snow bands too, think that will tie in with fax charts I saw earlier which had an upper warm front then, I think, an occlusion.

Snowing in Warminster leaving a dusting in the last half hour.

Wowow really I’m only in frome

and nothing here .nice one Andy

oclussion is good should get good amount from that.

 

ANY SNOW TOMORROW on IF  forecast 

[offerman]

29 minutes ago, khodds said:

Yep. I’m with you on this. Pass me the gin before I get really angry ☹️

With you both on this too

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, offerman said:

With you both on this too

Yes look at poor southeast with all those heavy showers rolling in.. poor buggers had to wait 5 years!

Childsplay really compared to our 8 

Right pub quiz time hopefully the pub run will cheer me up. 

[Mark Neal.]

Another dusting, started snowing just before 6pm lightly then got moderately heavier for a few minutes left a covering. Powdery snow. 

Skies have cleared now and -2.2c. Dewpoint -7.5c 

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

14 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Yes look at poor southeast with all those heavy showers rolling in.. poor buggers had to wait 5 years!

Childsplay really compared to our 8 

 

What about January 2013? We had decent snow then