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Model output discussion-mid Autumn and beyond

Message added by Paul

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  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
9 hours ago, lorenzo said:


One thing is for sure, watching an SSW in slow motion ........ is gruelling work... we are gonna be damn unlucky NOT to get something signature out of this event that's for sure...

Could not agree more with your comment.....    This is a very helpful post for beginners like me!   However, with all the anticipation created by the SSW I have been expecting  to see some lasting effects on the vortex to evolve in the models, but it just doesn't seem to be happening.  These are the main NH views from the main models at +144 this morning:

image.thumb.gif.6ef4ac906d65259039f25a3c01596010.gif   image.thumb.png.4c30fee945f47338b5be48190e2be380.png

image.thumb.png.7cfe8df44b72897a1e2ca7a7c1ed806b.png   image.thumb.png.d9cffb276bff8ae5466facd60bd38b2c.png

All fairly similar with evidence of disruption visible.

And then here are the same models (minus the UKMO) at +240:

.                                                                 image.thumb.png.43f50524ab8ca1aadf69edcc8615d4fc.png

image.thumb.png.116658cac8db13746565ac13f4224d96.png  image.thumb.png.71ae7c73711a08d7a50bf7e3397002a1.png

Do these images show continued disruption or signs of reorganisation?  They don't seem to show the UK benefitting from the effects of the SSW at the 10 day range anyway.  This could be any average winter with the Atlantic in charge and no sign of northern blocking to bring lasting wintry conditions to the UK.  To my admittedly inexperienced eye, it looks like there will have to be some significant changes of direction from the models before we can have much confidence in an SSW driven winter.

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