June 2020 CET & EWP forecast contests

[Don]

20 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Hmmm, the latest warm weather forecast could perhaps push the CET above 15C (maybe even around 15.5C)?

That would be good......

[Summer Sun]

14.5c to the 17th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

[summer blizzard]

Storm chaser in the other realm is estimating 15.8C to the 28th although much depends on how long things last for. Both models currently have a somewhat favourable breakdown for copious levels of rainfall.

[Summer Sun]

14.5c to the 18th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 13.6C +0.2C above average. Rainfall 90.1mm 123.4% of the monthly average. Another chance of hitting 100mm for the month

[damianslaw]

Quite a warm up on the way, just like we saw in May after a relatively average first half. A finish in the high 15s quite probable depending on the extent an intensity of the heat next week, Mid 15s after any downward adjustments might be a safer bet at this range. When will our next below average month come?

[Don]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Quite a warm up on the way, just like we saw in May after a relatively average first half. A finish in the high 15s quite probable depending on the extent an intensity of the heat next week, Mid 15s after any downward adjustments might be a safer bet at this range. When will our next below average month come?

January 2021 with an anomaly of 7C! 

Yes, mid 15's looking like a good bet currently for the final June CET.

Edited June 19, 2020 by Don

[Summer Sun]

14.5c to the 19th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 13.6C +0.1C above normal, Rainfall 91.6mm 125.5% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP is close to 80 mm now (73 mm after 18th) and looks set to add 25-30 mm to end of month. That would get the total above 100 mm and as I outlined the other day, hand a win to Weather26. Dog Toffee needs the pace to slow down and finish below 101 mm. LG needs a deluge and a finish above 162 mm. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 13.7C +0.1C above normal. Rainfall 96.3mm 131.9% of the monthly average. If it does make 100mm plus that would be the 7th time 100mm has been reached in 12 months.

[Summer Sun]

14.6c to the 20th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

[summer blizzard]

Estimate from Gavin in the other realm is 15.7C to end the month with a potential date record on the 25th.

[Summer Sun]

14.6c to the 21st

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

[The PIT]

Sunny sheffield now up to 13.9C +0.1C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

14.6c to the 22nd

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

[Roger J Smith]

EWP had reached 80 mm after 21st and might have added 1 mm with a few locations reporting rain on 22nd. Projection to end of month is about 20-25 mm with the south rather dry and the north running generally above 30 mm. So the finish remains a little in doubt, Weather26 needs another 20 mm to steal top score away from Dog Toffee who would hold on to it until we reached 101 mm. The end result should be high enough to make these the top two scores one way or the other. Everyone else pretty much guaranteed scoring already based on order of forecasts, except that LG needs quite a bit more to get into any sort of scoring range. 

Not enough days left to do much to the CET especially given the propensity to adjust down, so would speculate 15.2-15.3 the most likely result after adjustments. 

[damianslaw]

Despite significant heat over the next three days, which will boost the CET into the low 15s by weekend, the models are showing a cool end to June, a finish in the high 15s looking less likely now. Something in the 15.2 to 15.5 degree mark most probable. 

[summer blizzard]

Looking at my first year Niña analogues 1973, 2007 and 2010 are all close for all that really means.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 14.1C +0.2C above normal rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

14.8c to the 23rd

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 14.4C +0.5C above average.Rainfall Unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

15.1c to the 24th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

[Summer Sun]

15.4c to the 25th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 14.7C +0.7C above normal. Rainfall unchanged. Another big rise tomorrow on the cards as well.