2021 Tornado events, chat & reports

[matty40s]

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat May 08 2021 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected later this afternoon through late evening across northern Kansas, and overnight into northwestern and central Missouri. The initial Kansas storms will pose a large hail threat, with an increase in the damaging-wind threat by early tonight. A few tornadoes will also be possible late this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update.. Recent surface observations sampled upper-50s dewpoints into south-central KS with one site (WLD) reporting 60. Surface low is centered about 40 miles west-northwest of HLC in northwest KS, with a dryline extending southward between GCK and DDC into the northeast TX Panhandle. The air mass across the central Plains continues to destabilize with the overall forecast unchanged from what was outlined in the previous discussion (appended below). Convective initiation is still anticipated near the surface low and south along the dryline around 22-23Z, with storms then moving east-northeastward. Large hail (isolated 2"+) is possible with the initial, more cellular development. A tornado or two is also possible, particularly as these storms move eastward into more supportive low-level moisture. Upscale growth into a more organized linear system is expected this evening, resulting in a shift to more of a damaging wind threat.

[matty40s]

 

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST TX...AND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large to giant hail and damaging winds are expected across parts of southern Texas this afternoon into tonight. Severe storms with occasional large hail will be possible this afternoon across northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana, and a few damaging gusts will also be possible this afternoon/evening across central and eastern North Carolina. ...Rio Grande Valley/south central TX this afternoon/evening... Boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s have spread westward across south central TX to the Rio Grande, beneath very steep midlevel lapse rates near 9 C/km. The combination of surface heating in cloud breaks by afternoon, low-level ascent along a stalled front across the Edwards Plateau, and upslope flow into the Serranias Del Burro (west of DRT), will support at least widely-scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon. The initial storms should be discrete, with some clustering possible later this evening as a result of cell mergers/interactions of right- and left-moving supercells. MLCAPE near 4000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt with long hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large to giant hail (3-4" diameter) and damaging gusts. Additionally, low-level hodograph curvature/shear may remain sufficient for an isolated tornado late this afternoon/evening. ...Central/eastern NC this afternoon/evening... A subtle midlevel trough will move over NC this afternoon, as a surface cold front moves southward from VA into NC. Surface heating in cloud breaks will boost afternoon temperatures to near 80 F with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s along and south of the front, resulting in MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon across NC. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along and a little south of the front as buoyancy is maximized and convective inhibition is removed by mid afternoon, and storms will subsequently spread east-southeastward across NC through this evening. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for a few organized clusters/supercells capable of producing damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. ...Northeast TX to northwest LA through mid afternoon... Elevated storms formed this morning over the Red River Valley in association with warm advection and a subtle midlevel speed max moving eastward. The storms may persist for a few more hours while moving along the northeast edge of the buoyancy gradient (MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg), given the potential to maintain some organized structures with effective bulk shear near 50 kt for the elevated parcels. Occasional large hail will be the main threat. ...Southern LA this afternoon... A cluster of storms with occasional bow and embedded supercell structures is now moving across the New Orleans area. The near-storm environment is somewhat favorable for organized storm structures along the residual outflow boundary from overnight convection. However, the storms appear to have peaked in intensity earlier this morning, and the potential for any substantial uptick this afternoon appears too uncertain to warrant any change to the Marginal risk assessment

Edited May 10, 2021 by matty40s

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

AC 150519 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected across the central/southern High Plains today. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Large-scale pattern remains active across the US, but mid-level flow has decreased considerably across the central and southern Plains. Even so, ample deep-layer shear will be present for storm longevity/organization as very steep lapse rates have yet to be overturned/weakened within this flow regime. A considerable amount of convection developed across the high Plains Friday and this is reflective of a gradual increase in moisture/buoyancy across a region that will once again not be capped by late afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests weak ridging over CO will not prove particularly subsident and thunderstorms should develop by peak heating around 21z along the Front Range. Confidence in this scenario is high as moist upslope flow will be maintained into the higher terrain. While cloud-bearing shear will not be particularly strong, forecast soundings suggest supercells will be the initial storm mode. This activity will produce large hail and damaging winds as it propagates slowly southeast. With time this activity will congeal as it grows upscale near the KS border

 

With a very similar scenario for Sunday....and then...

Edited May 15, 2021 by matty40s

[matty40s]

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible on Monday across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...Southern and Central High Plains... A shortwave ridge will move eastward through the southern and central Plains on Monday as an upper-level trough moves across northern Mexico. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen in west Texas during the day with moisture advection continuing across much of the southern Plains. A west Texas dryline is again forecast to take shape by afternoon with convection initiating to the east of the dryline. Scattered thunderstorms should develop and move east-northeastward across the Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas during the late afternoon, reaching western Oklahoma and possibly central Oklahoma during the evening. NAM forecast suggest that instability will be stronger in the southern Plains on Monday than on previous days. This is because surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid to upper 60s F to the east of the dryline. In addition, mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen across much of west Texas as the shortwave trough approaches. Forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear could reach 40 kt across the Texas Panhandle, where supercells with large hail will be possible. The models also develop a 35 to 45 kt low-level jet across northwest Texas early Monday evening. For this reason, low-level shear should become strong enough for tornadoes. The more dominant supercells could produce a tornado or two. Wind damage will also likely accompany any storm clusters that can become organized.

[matty40s]

Now up to moderate threat, dont forget, moderate is worse than enhanced threat.

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 188 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South-central/East-Central Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Increasing severe thunderstorm development is expected initially across south-central/east-central Texas through mid/late afternoon, particularly in vicinity of an outflow boundary that has generally stalled in a southwest/northeast fashion across the region. A moist environment, modest strength low-level winds in conjunction with the influence of the outflow boundary could support a tornado risk aside from more prevalent damaging winds and isolated large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles northwest of Lufkin TX to 55 miles south southeast of San Antonio TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KW

[matty40s]

This could be headed directly for Austin , Texas!!

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

  Day 2 Outlook >

May 23, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Updated: Sun May 23 12:07:30 UTC 2021 (Print Version |  | )

Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

CategoricalTornadoWindHail

 Pop. Cities CWAs RFCs Interstates Counties ARTCC FEMA Tribal

Categorical Day1 1300Z Outlook
 

Day 1 RiskArea (sq. mi.)Area Pop.Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area

ENHANCED31,953187,169Rapid City, SD...Rapid Valley, SD...Sturgis, SD...

SLIGHT155,654953,899Bismarck, ND...Clovis, NM...North Platte, NE...Aberdeen, SD...Mandan, ND...

MARGINAL263,05036,477,345New York, NY...Boston, MA...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Lubbock, TX...

 Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 231207 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN SD/NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the western Great Plains. The most likely corridor for a few tornadoes and significant severe wind/hail is from western South Dakota to the central High Plains. ...Western/central SD to the CO/KS border... A surface cyclone in the lee of the Front Range will deepen as it tracks north-northeast into western SD by this evening. Northward advancement of the low in tandem with the surface warm front will result in poleward advection of upper 50s to lower 60s surface dew points towards the SD/ND border. Moderately steep mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km should support an increasingly expansive plume of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg by peak heating. Pronounced mid-level height falls will overspread the region as a vort max embedded within the basal portion of the broader trough over AZ ejects northeast. Accompanied by an intense speed max, thunderstorms will rapidly develop by early to mid-afternoon within a strengthening deep-layer shear regime. Supercells will be favored initially but a quick transition into a northeast-moving QLCS is expected near the WY/SD/NE/CO border areas given the meridional flow regime. Large hail will be likely mainly early, with severe wind gusts becoming the primary hazard as upscale growth occurs across western portions of SD/NE. The potential for a few tornadoes is apparent across three primary corridors within the ENH and SLGT risk regions. First, any storm in proximity to the surface cyclone and warm front, where locally enhanced 0-1 km SRH (at or above 200 m2/s2) will exist. Second, embedded QLCS circulations are also possible as the line matures during the late afternoon to early evening. Finally to the south of the QLCS, a couple discrete supercells may persist through about dusk near the CO/KS border amid plentiful low-level moisture/SRH. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon in the vicinity of the dryline from the Raton Mesa vicinity to the Trans-Pecos of far west TX. A mix of supercells and multicell structures will be most favored in the Raton Mesa vicinity along the glancing periphery of the ejecting trough. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado or two are possible.

[matty40s]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 196 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast/East-Central Colorado Northwest Kansas Western Nebraska Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to quickly develop through early/mid afternoon, initially along the Colorado/southeast Wyoming Front Range and immediately adjacent High Plains. Supercells capable of large hail and a few tornadoes can be expected as storms mature and quickly progress northeastward across the region. Damaging winds may also become an increasing risk by early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles south southeast of Limon CO to 15 miles north northwest of Chadron NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

[matty40s]

 

Stormchasers struggling with streaming signals this evening due to sparsely populated area. 4 tornadoes reported already.

[matty40s]

Live Storm Chasing

LIVESTORMCHASING.COM

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Watch live feeds as storm chasers try to see if their target verifies. Tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, and floods - we've got it all and more, live on our site and available as video on demand.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Some people thinking it might go to Moderate risk

[matty40s]

32 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Some people thinking it might go to Moderate risk

Where you been??

Almost certainly Moderate looking at the various contributing factors, might even be a severe for a small slot nearer the time.

Looks like its charge laptop up ready, it's difficult to get everything working on phone screen.

Edited May 25, 2021 by matty40s

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

Edited May 26, 2021 by matty40s

[matty40s]

Wow...

[Kirkcaldy Weather]