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7/14 day forecast different to the 'Rest of Toaday' rain forecast.


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Posted
  • Location: Bettyhill
  • Location: Bettyhill

I'm getting different rain forecasts on the 7/14 day and the 'rest of today'.  See attachment.  Do they cover different locales?

thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

It's for the same location but using a different methodology. The main forecast is deterministic and uses the latest data. The rest of day display uses a number of the recent forecasting model updates to create a probability of rainfall, which may show a risk even if the latest run doesn't have rain in your location. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bettyhill
  • Location: Bettyhill

Brilliant answer, thank you. Which methodology is more trustworthy?

Edited by kelper
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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Swings and roundabouts really. In a situation where there's a band of rain approaching, more often than not, each run of the model will show very similar things, so there's less need to worry about percentages. In a showery situation, they're harder to nail down, so you may be able to see the chance of catching one by using the rest of day info.

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