Hurricane Larry

[Gray-Wolf]

So Larry is now a 'cane and set to become a major by sometime Saturday?

 

I think we'd better keep our eyes on Him esp. seeing Spain N.Y. right now!!!

Edited September 11, 2021 by Jo Farrow
tags

[summer blizzard]

Fish food but Cape Verde system which should become strong and be a large ACE producer.

[AderynCoch]

It could impact Bermuda down the line. One to watch.

[summer blizzard]

INIT 02/1500Z 13.5N 34.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

12H 03/0000Z 13.8N 36.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

24H 03/1200Z 14.4N 39.7W 85 KT 100 MPH

36H 04/0000Z 15.3N 42.6W 95 KT 110 MPH

48H 04/1200Z 16.5N 45.2W 105 KT 120 MPH

60H 05/0000Z 17.9N 47.6W 115 KT 130 MPH

72H 05/1200Z 19.2N 49.7W 120 KT 140 MPH

96H 06/1200Z 21.8N 53.1W 115 KT 130 MPH

120H 07/1200Z 24.6N 56.0W 110 KT 125 MPH

[swebby]

6 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Fish food but Cape Verde system which should become strong and be a large ACE producer.

Some of it's predicted post tropical landings have been interesting and potent, including Newfoundland the UK and also Portugal plus an option for it to loop the loop and end up meandering around the Azores where it would have every chance of becoming tropical again.

Whatever it's track, i'd not recommend Bermuda as a holiday destination for a week or so.

[summer blizzard]

125mb, 958mb. Annular.

[AderynCoch]

I wouldn't call it annular yet because it still has banding. It's not far off though. That huge eye is impressive. 

[The PIT]

Looks like it to me.

[matty40s]

 

[summer blizzard]

[matty40s]

Inside the eye at sunrise....

 

[AderynCoch]

Looks like it's going for another EWRC. How big can that eye get? 

[Wold Topper]

Where is landfall expected?

[AderynCoch]

On 06/09/2021 at 00:02, Wold Topper said:

Where is landfall expected?

Nowhere at the moment. It could impact Bermuda, or Newfoundland as an extratropical storm. 

[karyo]

We are at the peak of the hurricane season and apart from Larry there is nothing else to look at. 

I wonder what is causing this.

 

[Downburst]

12 minutes ago, karyo said:

We are at the peak of the hurricane season and apart from Larry there is nothing else to look at. 

I wonder what is causing this.

 

Not sure, I believe La Nina should produce more hurricanes due to reduced wind shear in the Caribbean being more conducive to top cloud formation. However if you look at ECM data is it forecasting slightly above mean in any case?

E

 

[karyo]

18 minutes ago, Downburst said:

Not sure, I believe La Nina should produce more hurricanes due to reduced wind shear in the Caribbean being more conducive to top cloud formation. However if you look at ECM data is it forecasting slightly above mean in any case?

E

 

Interesting that this week the ACE is above average based on Larry alone. Then after this week, things are expected to be much quieter. If this proves to be correct then this looks like a rather unexciting September. 

[Downburst]

there is a tropical storm in "genesis" stage well defined Sept 11. But is never gets going and veers North West and then West. In fact even though it doesn't get going west, it is forecast to turn north and head to Canary Islands. One to watch for them as that might be a lot of rain. Might even bring some rain to Morocco. 

 west

 

[karyo]

10 minutes ago, Downburst said:

there is a tropical storm in "genesis" stage well defined Sept 11. But is never gets going and veers North West and then West. In fact even though it doesn't get going west, it is forecast to turn north and head to Canary Islands. One to watch for them as that might be a lot of rain. Might even bring some rain to Morocco. 

 west

 

That would be interesting. Which model is this?

[AderynCoch]

Confirmed as annular now by the NHC. What an eye.

 

Edited September 6, 2021 by AderynCoch

[matty40s]

 

[Jo Farrow]

Canadian Hurricane Centre 06:30 A.M. NDT

"Latest information indicates that Hurricane Larry is likely to influence the weather in eastern Newfoundland this Friday. Many of the numerical weather models predict the storm to track offshore while some now expect the centre to travel across the Avalon Peninsula.

At this stage, most of the models have the hurricane making transition to a post-tropical storm while travelling very quickly through the region, as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west. This scenario would shorten the period of heavy rainfall and shift high winds well to the east of the storm track. It is too soon to speculate on rain amounts or wind speeds.

Sometimes the nature of the approaching trough can cause the hurricane to re-intensify while making the transition to post-tropical in a manner such as Igor in 2010. At this point there does not appear to be any indication of this type of pattern - however - it is very important to stay tuned to updated forecasts this week because atmospheric conditions could change."

[Jo Farrow]

Bermuda 

 

Larry is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday as a large hurricane. NHC

“approaching Hurricane Larry, which brings deteriorating conditions Wednesday night into Thursday with strengthening winds and further wet weather. Hazardous swells gradually develop, especially along the South Shore, with dangerous surf and rip currents.” Bermuda Met.

The long period powerful swells are already beginning to develop. Increasingly hazardous and dangerous surf with strong rip currents will develop. The Bermuda Met service are including strong to tropical storm force winds in their forecasts with the possibility that they could go higher. There is uncertainty about the rainfall amounts as Larry passes to the east of Bermuda.

[summer blizzard]

Outer bands have now reached Bermuda, 110mph.

[summer blizzard]

Textbook Cape Verde track.