Scotland Weather discussion

[Quinach]

Showers this afternoon more sleet/graupel than snow but temperatures now reversing - down to 0.8c after a high of 2.2c.

Nice sunset..

And some lovely pink topped wispy snow showers going round..

[Glaswegianblizzard]

6 hours ago, Kayemill said:

Not sure of the terminology but last night Mars went behind the moon for a while. Think it's called Lunar occulation of Mars?

Thought I could see a planet close to the moon this morning. Was quite a sight.

 

Just very cold and crisp in Glasgow. Can’t see us joining the snow action but we can hope.

[Ravelin]

49 minutes ago, Snowandrocks said:

A few reasonable snow showers still passing over but things seem to be clearing up. Just watched some Eurofighters circling noisily overhead. 

I was out walking the dog and I could hear them but just couldn't spot them. Sounded like they were more over your direction. Unusual to hear them around here despite the proximity to RAF Lossiemouth. 

Cleared another 5cm or thereabouts from the driveway after the dog walk that had fallen since 8am. Unlike this morning it was heavy stuff, nearly killed me. We must have had 15cm at least fall since last night, which is a fair haul for this early in winter, probably helped by being a little higher up. 

[Ruzzi]

Latest ICON run just out looks very interesting. Certainly keeps things very cold. There's no doubt that precipitation will crop in places unexpectedly over the next week etc and snow details will definitely upgrade and downgrade at short notice, but the position that the ICON finishes leaves us on the cusp of potentially something much better.

If you look at the chart for the 14th December: 

and then the 15th:

You can see the forcing placed on PV with high pressure gradually separating that lobe of vortex over Scandinavia between the 14th and 15th however that's where the run stops.... but it does seem that it is having a good go at separating it. If it was to separate that vortex lobe and high pressure can start forcing the lobe southwards with high pressure linking from Greenland to Russia then naturally the winds will begin to veer more easterly..... should we get to that point then there is -16C/-18C 850hpa waiting in the wings to pounce: 

Now granted its only one run but a very welcome one in my opinion and a very interesting development to watch for on future runs. The GFS is also continually hinting at wanting a pressure rise in Scandinavia, it just doesn't seem to know how it wants it to get there. 

Things are most definitely all over the place but this is something to keep a wee watching brief for over the models as the next week progresses. If this solution was to gain traction then it really would be game on! 

 

It is also worth noting that the latest ICON run will defo increase snow chances over the next week for areas of Scotland not currently in the snow risk zones, but still more the Eastern half than the Western half. 

Edited December 8, 2022 by Ruzzi

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Awesome job with the analysis @Ruzzi 

Currently we see the flow has veered to a northerly hence the shower activity mostly situated in the North Sea 

 

So what's the setup as we head to the weekend

There's a developing low forming in the North Sea, initially this will be a dual centred low

With one of the centres meandering about in the NE corner 

That will help generate further showers though they'll not be purely of snow as we have a period of higher dewpoints 

However the iso is 528 dam and below plus 850 temps are between -6 to -8 akin to today 

Unfortunately the wrf 2km has been a bit flakey on updating and no 12z output but still we see the possibility for further accumulating snow 

That's the first thing we need the models to be sure on exactly how much the low deepens and its track which currently the consensus has been coming onshore to the East of Scotland but plenty time until we get a high amount of certainty.

Saturday might have a streamer as the flow pivots to an easterly 

 

[Benvironment]

2 hours ago, Ravelin said:

I was out walking the dog and I could hear them but just couldn't spot them. Sounded like they were more over your direction. Unusual to hear them around here despite the proximity to RAF Lossiemouth. 

Cleared another 5cm or thereabouts from the driveway after the dog walk that had fallen since 8am. Unlike this morning it was heavy stuff, nearly killed me. We must have had 15cm at least fall since last night, which is a fair haul for this early in winter, probably helped by being a little higher up. 

Assuming it was the same ones, they photobombed me at about 2pm. Two of them flew up the Slugain from Braemar and then did a steep climb into the cloud.

[101_North]

I love snow as much as the next man but I fail to see how this mornings 'dusting' necessitates 3 articles in the Edinburgh Evening News! The most cringe worthy being a photo gallery of "11 stunning photos of the Capital in the snow" featuring this particular gem...

"Stunning" just doesn't do it justice 

 

 

[Ruzzi]

@Kirkcaldy Weather Always look forward to your short term in depth analysis when there's snow in the offing, both here and the MOD thread, as well as your long term views. 

Saturday did peak my interest earlier when I had a quick glance.

Also caught the end of the news and the BBC map showed the Eastern half of the central belt catching snow showers through-out Saturday which I presume is a straight lift from the ECM det as is usually the case. 

But certainly looks to be a short window of opportunity for any showers to drive through the central belt. Nothing too drastic but enough to raise the eyebrow meantime.

I'm just patiently waiting on the stars aligning for a re-run of Feb 2021 ..... 47cm level in 48 hours. It's going to be some record to beat hence my reason for mentioning the icon run earlier, its an evolution that could see the cards start to fall into the right place. Loads of other possibilities in the offing the now too though, that being the caveat. 

[Ross B]

47 minutes ago, 101_North said:

I love snow as much as the next man but I fail to see how this mornings 'dusting' necessitates 3 articles in the Edinburgh Evening News! The most cringe worthy being a photo gallery of "11 stunning photos of the Capital in the snow" featuring this particular gem...

"Stunning" just doesn't do it justice 

 

 

Totally agree more widely on that! (excluding the North East where some places have had decent snow) I'm seeing articles with "bone chilling - 3c" and similar, it's the middle of December, frosts overnight are totally normal! So far, there is nothing special about this cold snap, hopefully that will change over the coming days and hopefully weeks, but so far it's just a cold start to December. 

 

The latest ECM hits the jackpot here, I'll believe it when I see it... (borrowed from the mod thread) 

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by Ross B

[Norrance]

4 hours ago, coldest winter said:

Can anybody explain why the local met office forecast for the next 7 days constantly forecast wind direction between WSW and NW when we are supposedly getting winds from the North and trending towards the East? Could this be taking account local geography relating to our position by the Cromarty Firth?

I cannot see any reply but their thinking may be that as low pressure develops in the North Sea towards Norway that it will drag the wind on its West side more to the NW rather than N or NE. I would prefer more East personally and hope that this forecast here is correct rather than the dry Met O forecast for this area.

[Ravelin]

Incoming..... 

Looks like I'll have to clear the driveway again in the morning. Already getting tired of that so please make it light, fluffy stuff. At least its Friday tomorrow and I don't have to go out Sat or Sun if it keeps it up. 

[tiff]

After a few days of worrying, the jobs and drive up to Stonehaven and Turriff were a pleasure.. a little dusting in Windygates this morning, nothing until past Stracathro, dark threatening skies north of there and a few snow flurries then blue skies and a nice sunset in Turriff. Chap in Turriff did say they had a lot of thunder and lightning in the morning. Much ado about nothing..

[Glaswegianblizzard]

1 hour ago, Ross B said:

Totally agree more widely on that! (excluding the North East where some places have had decent snow) I'm seeing articles with "bone chilling - 3c" and similar, it's the middle of December, frosts overnight are totally normal! So far, there is nothing special about this cold snap, hopefully that will change over the coming days and hopefully weeks, but so far it's just a cold start to December. 

The hyperbole surrounding this spell of weather has been off the scale.

My concern is if we do get genuinely frigid temperatures that it gets attributed to climate change and described as unprecedented, when in reality it’s just a once or twice a decade event.

[edo]

40 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Incoming..... 

Looks like I'll have to clear the driveway again in the morning. Already getting tired of that so please make it light, fluffy stuff. At least its Friday tomorrow and I don't have to go out Sat or Sun if it keeps it up. 

the heart bleeds for you needing to clear all that Snaw

[Hairy Celt]

1 minute ago, edo said:

the heart bleeds for you needing to clear all that Snaw

I was going to say that 

There's a bit of last night's half-thawed and now refrozen few mm skitters still lingering but that's it. About par these days.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Hairy Celt

[edo]

2 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

I was going to say that 

There's a bit of last night's half-thawed and now refrozen few mm skitters still lingering but that's it. About par these days.

this is your year HC.... the year the Snaw returns to our snow starved areas

 

I'm off too Budapest Tuesday...... I just know that those 3 days will be Narnia in Perth 

[Ravelin]

16 minutes ago, edo said:

the heart bleeds for you needing to clear all that Snaw

I'll accept Perthshire refugees, free board and snowshovel provided. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

12 minutes ago, edo said:

I'm off too Budapest Tuesday

I'd be Second guessing you being successful making that trip given these snow amounts for Tuesday

[Huntforsnow]

Picked a good day to go to Edinburgh Christmas market and shopping, like someone had sprinkled fake snow to make it look more festive  

lovely to at least see a little snow as none here on the west, hopefully we get some soon, looking very cold for the foreseeable anyway  

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Hunting for cams near Inverness as the next snow bands come through these look in a great spot 2nd cam got the widest view

Webcam

FORTROSEGOLFCLUB.CO.UK

 

[Hairy Celt]

Yay, proper flakey snow now, not really heavy but better than the marginal crap last night.

[Russsty]

Stoney done ok this morning, about 3/4 cm's. Coming home from the pub just now was a bit dodgy as things are icing over, looking at that radar, its about an hour away, not convinced it will be snow at my level.

[Hairy Celt]

4 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Hunting for cams near Inverness as the next snow bands come through these look in a great spot 2nd cam got the widest view

Webcam

FORTROSEGOLFCLUB.CO.UK

 

That's about a mile from me, I didn't know that cam existed. It's in an even poorer location than me, ie down on the Ness with water not far away. I have 20m elevation, the clubhouse has maybe 3m.

[Northernlights]

2 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Yay, proper flakey snow now, not really heavy but better than the marginal crap last night.

Just the same here describe as moderate and blowing about a bit at 0c

[Hairy Celt]

Just now, Northernlights said:

Just the same here describe as moderate and blowing about a bit at 0c

0C here too.