Scottish Discussion + Reports... Early December 2022 Blocked & Cold pattern

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Wasn't fully sure if I would make a thread but I really do think it'll be a good idea, we never know it very well could be a weather setup we look back fondly to in future years.

For any members coming back to the forum in time for winter and have missed the reasons for these developing synoptics here's all the key details

I do my outlooks incorporating the MJO you can find my most recent ones here 

some quotes 

'high focused through Scandinavia and also more blocking throughout the Arctic 

These would see the ridging / block steadily head for Greenland'

And for the phase 6 associated part of my outlook .. 'Dates I'd look for those patterns... 3rd / 4th of December '

Leads me nicely to the latest

528 dam looks to come in on the eve of December 3rd and into 4th 

 

Nice 850s as a starting point 

The first streamers getting going and with the 528 dam they'll be getting more and more wintry 

Following this we get the Greenland High developing and flow starts going toward a Northeasterly, not quite been pinpointed what that leads to though I'm focused on and definitely not ruling out a proper easterly setting in 

  

Incredible mean on the 18z GEFS I've highlighted the mega Greenland High... honestly that's so rare to see on a mean chart at 1050hpa also the negatively tilted atlantic troughing which is a crucial element often present in our most awesome snowy patterns and the flow as discussed above 

 

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2 hours ago, Huntforsnow said:

The mad thread has gone wild

Things still look good for us here, right? Where’s @Kirkcaldy Weather always got the right info? 

Nothing has changed tbh it's just how the low that currently looks like it'll try move toward the UK in some direction or another is what the models are really having a struggle with

The 0z JMA was basically a jackpot run very snowy if it goes like this 

Note the clean phasing of the low that heads toward the UK and the troughing coming in from Scandinavia 

The GEFS mean quite useable too

[Ravelin]

GFS 12Z might not look the greatest at times, but I'd happily take it if this was the result... 

We can then worry about the latter part of the run, which will inevitably change anyway. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

A lot of reasons to think this won't be a short episode of blocking & below avg temperatures...

GEM Ens  

MJO is on the move through a number of phases at the mo I'll dive deeper into that once the dates are concrete but a quick peek is roughly similar to that of the GEM Ens 

Might be talking about a polar low in a few days too

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

More things to be on the lookout for based off latest model output 

• Pretty much all of Scotland in with a chance to be snow covered by Friday 
• Ice days Wed, Thur, Friday, UKMO HD runs continue to get minus double digits too with 0z showing below -20C in a few places